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Thread: H-Season outlooks 2010

  1. #1
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    Default H-Season outlooks 2010

    we are just mid April,
    but all around the bords including here on DR1 people start to 'discuss' the upcoming Hurricane Season 2010, so while by my own personal opinion it is not worth to check that far ahead due huge inaccurancies, i want to bring up some opinions and at the same moment we can keep this thread as our 2010 Stormy and Weather Watch information and discussion thread.
    what pushed expats and locals and near future Island travellers to start posting about the far away 2010 hurricane season been simply the early pre season report/outlook from the CSU (Colorado State Univercity) which forecasts a clearly above average 2010 Hurricane Season.

    first of all,
    don't forget to read their textures comletely, they are well aware that their April predictions (published in April every year and relying on the fact conditions of our Highway during the month of March) are still a very early and unreliable thingy to concluse into details, it is an overall far ahead view on the whole area from western africa til the florida keys, from greenland down til Brazil.
    what they are running as forecast models for 2010 is a newly invented system of data collecting which strated firstly for the 2008 forecast, and that 2008 forecast been very excat in april 2008. they repeated it for the 2009 season and the same formerly so great models failed very hard, because the 2009 season stayed way far below the april 2009 forecasts, 2009 been a slow/smooth season and in case of Punta Cana we had not even one day under the influence of any tropical storm or similar toys. 2010 is the 3rd year that system been used for the early in the year outlook on the upcoming season, so there's not much experience on the system and the success been top in 2008 and flop in 2009, means to be improved in the future.
    such data collecting jobs and bringing the collected data together into forecasting models is a huge mathematical job, even Albert Einstein would sweat over such, and it requires time of many years to compare the data and understand the failures and to finally eliminate as many as possible of those failing inputs.

    to not get misunderstood,
    i do in no way try to miscredit the work/forecasts of the Colorado State Univercity, they are as a matter of fact the best source working on Hurricane forecast Data which we have on the planet, but we should not overreact on their early in the year now in april made pre season forecast, they say themselves that this forecast contains a large number of uncertanties and is still due missing years of experience with the system a very unreliable thingy, but it has to be done to learn from it's failures and to imporve it in the future seasons.

    where they do since a long time a top job on is their Season opening prediction, this season 2010 it will be published June 2nd 2010, the predictions of the CSU beginning of June been since long a very accurate picture of what to expect and went very reliable during the last years.
    toaday is April 12th 2010, so we have still 7 weeks and 2 days to wait til that will be done and out. til then no significant institutions are expected to make significant forecasts for the 2010 hurricane season. they all use the data collected by the CSU anyways.

    in general, as the opposite to the tough predicted but finally softly passing and ending last season, for 2010 the effects of El Nino are looking unfavorable for the Atlantic. in general the forecasters use 3 different stages of the El Nino effect on the forming of tropical storms. El Nino, Neutral, and La Nina.
    El Nino is the strongest form and for us around the caribbean Sea a protecting shield, last year that condition hindered a good number of potential systems to form up/threaten/grow bigger etc. Neutral is the state when El Nino conditions have more or less no effects on what's coming and going. La Nina is the state when the El Nino favors Storm Systems to come up/grow/get stronger/mess around.
    for 2010 the El Nino conditions til today look clearly in favor of the storms, the shift from El Nino towards La Nina will happen/finish around peak hurricane Season. such lead's to the conclusion that early season not much/nothing happens, but end september ahead a line up would be the result with the big boys running the highway. of course the El Nino influence is just one of countless factors/conditions influencing the rise of windy powers, but they are a mayor factor and if they come like actually awaited i expect the 2010 season to be very different to the calm and soft year 2009.
    a mayor factor will be the Trade winds at all, at the moment expected weak, and that's bad for us and good for the windy-boys, because weak Trade Winds favor low windshears (the difference between upper level and lower level winds), and windshear is one of the main factors that hinders growing storms to grow up bigger/faster. we saw that last year on a good number of forming systems, they struggled for days even that they run over high Sea surface temperatures, warnings of highest dangers been outt for many areas throuout the Caribbean, but the existing systems could not raise powers due extremely high windshears and also due a good amount of present saharah sand feeding their dirty mouths.

    so the sum of all provides in my opinion/interpretation, that we will get nothing during June, IF we get something late July it will not be big enough to bother our Paradise lifestyle for more than a couple days, august can be expected busy, specially after the 2nd week, but not specifically for the East of the Isle, mid september til end october the early of the year data suggerates heavy activities.

    in case of reliability of such early in the year made "April predictions", i wrote it above, one year they are accurate and an other year they are just worth to go into the trash can.

    let's wait for the June 2nd 2010 outlook.

    and hey,
    never forget the facts:
    spots like on our northshore Luperon and on our East Coast Cabeza de Toro are atlantic and caribbean wide very well known so called Hurricane Holes, means the safest spots to spend june 1st -november 30th at any year for the area from the west-african coast til Key West/Fl and from Greenland til down to Tierra de Fuegos.
    and in case i finally can experience an other one after so many quiet years i just hope the electrical power and then the batteries stay on as long as possible to gain as much data and details as possible.

    cheers
    Mike

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    Thanks for the info. We are heading down early July.

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    Quote Originally Posted by brycefo View Post
    Thanks for the info. We are heading down early July.
    that's for the Hot Phase of the Hurricane Season.
    don't worry,
    not hot due too many storms,
    it is the hot phase due hot humid cloudfree low winded perfect caribbean Island Beach vacation weather, ha ha.
    have fun
    Mike

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    still in May, the 24th to be exact,
    and the 1st disturbance for the atlantic is up.
    over the Bahamas, very low chances to get anything worth to watch out of it, and anyways moving northwestwards towards the US eastern shores, nothing for the Isle, but that early a neg indicator as a season's outlook.
    water surface temps are far above average for the time of the year, it looks like a active time period of many months ahead for this year.
    where exactly they all will appear?, we will soon find out.
    right now we have a Vaguada hanging and raining over us on the eastern skies,
    so it is time to enjoy a good wine on the veranda, watching that flat sea below and hope for the best,lol.
    after my 3 weeks quicky to europe i came back to find out that a failure of CEPM burned my PC down, will know by tomorrow if it can be repaired or if i need a new one.
    the laptop could not stand the european deseases, he get's a format/C right now to come back alive.
    actually i am on a small and weak travel notebook, most of my weathersites and maps are not available for me right now.
    this coming weekend i will spend for mothers day with the Mrs at a nearby hotel to relax, a fishing week right afterwards at Cap Cana, and then i hopefully will have my computerpowers back to watch the weather around the Isle like usual.
    til then, just lean back, enjoy the good drinks and don't let something preseason come up, lol.
    cheers
    Mike

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    Interesting report with interactive map showing Hurricane activity in 10 year blocks!!!


    Government warns of worst hurricane season since 2005 - Yahoo! News

    And the prediction of more active then average season.

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    I usually do not tread on Mike's page but this is the official NOAA press release and it makes some of Mike's comments more understandable. Especially regarding things like wind shear which wrecked more than a few of last year's hurricanes.

    Click here: NOAA - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA Expects Busy Atlantic Hurricane Season

    Really good reading.

    HB

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    Louis,
    there is no Mike's page, it's DR1 and all should chime in and give their comments and advice and experiences.
    i am at the moment at the Majestic elegance in PC, you know, mothers day this sunday, so before the hurricane winds of the year start to blow you have to calm down the winds at home, lol, otherwise she would not allow me to go off in those fascinating windies when they finally start, ha ha.
    i will be back home on monday for a first outlook check, even that the final predictions/models of the Colorado Uinv are still not out, should be published during next week, i like them most. i doubt that they will predict much different from the NOAA thou, so we get the chance of finally experience maybe something strong this year after many years of absence.
    tuesday ahead i will fish a week a tournament, but the late nights will be for the weather thingies, it is a fable of mine and now is the time to start. i will keep it up to date as good as possible.
    Mike

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    from the actual early starting outlooks the different organizations including NOAA are well in agreement to call for a overly active season.
    we would have had such also last year, which been finally a very quiet one, due a strong EL Niño over the pacific, such is the best protection for the atlantic basin in the first place.
    for right now, we have no El Niño, but we have no La Niña neither, which is exactly the opposite of last year´s effects on forming systems to be able to grow and be finally waves or storms or hurricanes. we passed El Niño time and are actually in the neutral position, awaited is a shift towards a La Niña situation expected for later summer, the peak time of the season, and that would bring us in the opposite situation compared to last year, what is starting this year will have much bigger chances to grow and get a name and finally be big and bad than last year when most systems could not even really form strong enough to get at least a name.
    20 storms for this season looks to me realistic under such circumstances, just 5 years back we had even 50% more, and usually more than half of the forming ones grow to be a hurricane, that would make it for 2010 a dozen, give or take 2, and it is a usual measure that around one third of hurricanes grows up to the biggest powers, a so named Mayor hurricane with destructive powers above of the usual floodings and mudslides.
    what nobody never can predict as a preseason outlook is their path, the road they go, or the spots where they hit land, if they hit land.
    history provided years with many big dangerous formations lining up but finally running directionwise into nowhere, up to the northern graveyard, without harm to anybody, and there been seasons with little activity but what came up hit on the spot, at heavy urbanized areas etc, that is something a pre season outlook can never predict.
    of course it is logic that more forming systems bring finally more strong storms and so finally more danger of a landfall of a ugly big one, but that can only be seen and then on shorter notice forecasted when the time has come that the first one grows, then we will see what the surroundings/conditions on the highway are.
    watertemps are much more above average for this time of the year in the caribbean Sea and more bad: to the east of the islands. and they came up surprisingly and early this year, for example many friends of mine fishing the gulf of mexico complained last winter about too cold conditions which killed many spezies/hindered them to breed in the usual numbers so they could catch them this spring, that turned around quick and hard into a hot suface condition here on our side. you'll never know.
    a bit of El Niño tendence would be something nice, yes, but for this season it would be a nice ´surprise´.
    we will see what June will bring us, a good indicator for the season to come, hopefully a good one for US and not for THEM-Storms.
    time for that Steakhouse now,
    at least it doesn't rain at the moment, like it did mostly since a week.
    Mike

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    a weak tropical wave is wandering on 13' westwards on around 20knots, straight into the southeastern caribbean Sea, no strong thunderstorm activity associated, zero development expected, no effects for us up here on the North caribbean Island Hispaniola.
    here on the east we are today under perfect sunny skies, it is hot and humid, very low wind, very calm Sea to watch.
    to not spread out the infos over too many different threads with the same postings i would guess we leave it here and continue this active thread about the 2010 season to report whhat every will be worth to watch or to be taken care of.
    for today i do not expect more to report but will have an eye on the maps all season long of course.
    perfect Beach ' n ' Beer weather
    cheers
    Mike

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    What I hear is it will be the worst hurricane season since the one that brought Katrina. I also hear the oil spill may warm the Gulf coast making things worse when a storm reaches there because more heat will be absorbed with the black oil. Those rinky-dink booms won't do anything against a storm surge.

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