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Thread: 2013, the Storms and the Fisherman in Paradise

  1. #1
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    Default 2013, the Storms and the Fisherman in Paradise

    no worries, guys, nothing around which could harm our relaxed Paradise Island Lifestyle, at least not that i would have heard of any stormy thingy near our soil, to be honest, that early in the season i did not look very detailed, yet.
    but we are close to the time when extraordinary early surprises can come up, so i think it's time to start our 2013 Season Weather/Storm/Hurricane-Watch and Info Topic.


    Mike

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    this is the most useful basic Map to have a daily look on, just to see if anything tropical storm formation wise is active anywhere in the Atlantic Basin, Caribbean Sea and/or Gulf of Mexico.
    the map is on autoupdate, so it shows all news about disturbed weather formations updated every 6hrs right here below.
    the updates usually start every year on June 1st and run thru the whole hurricane season.



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    the first chart shows the Sea Surface Temperatures on the full world map,
    the 2nd map is a cut of our area of interest, the Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico, Bahamas and the northamerican Eastshores.

    while the US just finished one of the coolest Aprils since a very long time, the Ocean's Surface shows the opposite, it is early in the year very hot and such usually promises a heck of activity out there, when colder airportions hit the hotzones over those hot waters. as opposed to the cold temps over the mainland, the waters off the US Eastshores up to New York show very high Sea Surface Temps. it would be unusual for that area, but such combination hides the danger of early season quick and nearshore uppopping formations near the coast, when cooler air from the mainland heads off over the Ocean.

    all our Highway from the West African Cap Verde Islands, where the big Boys and Gals are born, over here to the Caribbean Islands, including most of the Caribbean Sea, the Gulf of Mexico and the SE shores of the US, all those areas are actually on very hot SST conditions, means the conditions are ready to rumble.





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    It is that time of year again. Looking forward to all your updates.

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    yeah, its that time of the year, and as you can see now on the temps charts above, Invest 91E in the Eastern Pacific/off the Mexican Westshores is a actually active System under investigation.
    the Maps do automatically update themselves here, so no need to repost them again and again to get the most actual news, they always show up here on page one, easy to find.
    now i try the best way to place the San Juan/PR Radar station here, it should show up in the next 15 minutes, it is the next radar station which shows everything cloudy/rainy coming from the East towards Hispaniola/DR.

    Mike

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    this is the link to the San Juan Radar Station, it shows what comes out of the East towards the IslandNWS radar image loop of Long Range Reflectivity from Puerto Rico/Virgin Islands


    Mike<link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="main.css" title="radar"><link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="radar.css" title="radar"><link rel="shortcut icon" type="image/x-icon" href="http://www.dr1.com/forums/images/favicon.ico">

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    From Storm Carib - thanks to Gert Go to Caribbean Hurricane Network - stormCARIB.com - Local Reports on Tropical Systems threatening the Caribbean Islands for the links !!

    Thursday, May 23, 2013 13:35PM PDT - NOAA predicts above average hurricane season
    Today NOAA came out with their outlook for the upcoming season. They expect an above average season. It might even be an extremely factors if three climate factors come together; the status of the multi-decadal signal, above average sea surface temperatures and an absence of El Nino conditions. More detail on the NOAA news website, or more technical on the Climate Prediction Center. Officially one more week to go, it's never too early to check on your hurricane shutters, and other preparations you have to make. Unless you prefer to stand in long lines, and have slim pickings of necessities when a storm is heading your way... -Gert

    Olly and the Team

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    as we have nothing to watch, yet, let's take a closer look on the now everywhere published latest Season Outlooks for the 2013 Season, as most people do never really read the stuff, they just remember after reading such articles words like "above ACTIVE Season" etc etc, freak mentally out due fear of a extra dozen big Boys coming over their home, which of course is in no way the case, not even close to such scenario.
    *** i start with the 2013 Outlook of the National Hurricane Center from May 23rd 2013, which is the latest update.
    NOAA calls for a above active hurricane season and awaits the following numbers of storms(with a 70% chance that those numbers will be the finally really happening numbers):
    16 named storms
    9 hurricanes
    4-5 mayor hurricanes
    a ACE Index(Accumulated Cyclone Energy) of 162% of normal/average.

    sounds scary?
    NO, and when reading further you will understand why this is nothing to be scared of.

    *** as fact we are on the large scale of mother nature's long running cycles on a Active Hurricane Period since 1995, since 18years, and the AVERAGE as Fact of really HAPPENED Storm numbers for the period 1995-2012 is:
    15 named storms
    8 hurricanes
    4 mayor hurricanes
    ACE Index of 151%

    you see that those as fact numbers, which really happened 1995-2012, do not much/almost zero vary from the numbers of storms forecasted to come up this 2013 season.
    so if you visited/lived in the Hurricane regions around the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, Western Atlantic Basin during the last 18 years, in that case the Outlook for the 2013 Season say's that you have to await for this year/Season exactly the same that you experienced during the last 18 years.

    since the beginning of the active Hurricane Period in 1995 only only 5 seasons(including 4 !!! El Niņo years and including 2007-a neutral season) have not been above normal/average, all others been what is predicted for this 2013 season.

    so keep cool, run the same preparations as every season, do that ahead of time before the last minute people start to run long lines at suppliers stores to get the stuff which they should have stored at home since weeks/months, and all will be as every summer been since a long time.

    and we have always to keep one important thing in mind:
    independend of how many storms pop up, the numbers do not indicate how many storms will threaten habitated areas and how many will occur out on Sea and kill themselves out on Sea without any danger for Humans. we had so many active years with relatively little damage/hits, and even during a low activity season one single Beast can mess around and do more destruction than in other years large numbers of nothing did.

    even predicted much higher, last year's Season provided just 2 systems which reached the Level of a Mayor Hurricane, that been hurricane Michael and Hurricane Sandy. what the outcome of that Low number of big hurricanes in the season been is not necessary to describe here, as the One who hit been more destructive than so Many been before.

    the british private forecaster company TSR and PSU/Penn State predict activities around the ones given by NOAA, so we can say that the big shots of forecasters are in agreement on their outlook for the season.

    and we are already BEHIND the numbers of last year/season, as we had Tropical Storm Alberto formed May 21st 2012 and Tropical Storm Beryl on May 26th 2012.
    actual windshears over our regions of interest are very high and forecasted to stay high for the next 7 days or more, so a early season Tropical Storm before June is very unlikely. the further windshear forecasts/ more than maximum a week ahead of time, are very unreliable, so a further outlook into June is not possible.

    Mike

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    Olly,
    you guys have any insight on the waterload buildinh up NE of Samana since this late morning?
    not moving much/stationary, but a very wet and windy small piece of something hanging on the low level.
    Windshear is at exactly that area completely down, while our surroundings over all run a good amount of protective WS.

    Mike

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    Mike - This is probably the cause :

    TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
    205 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013



    A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE
    ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N71W...TO 27N71W 21N69W...TO 15N65W
    IN THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
    IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE NEARBY ATLANTIC OCEAN SCATTERED
    MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 67W...AND
    FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 67W AND 70W.

    HISPANIOLA...

    MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING
    ACROSS THE AREA AT THE MOMENT. THE BASE OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO
    UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
    15N65W.

    A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SPAN THE AREA OF HISPANIOLA
    FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. EXPECT A CHANCE OF RAINSHOWERS OR
    THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE GFS MODEL FOR
    700 MB STARTS WITH THE AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ANTICYCLONIC
    WIND FLOW...AND ULTIMATELY IN THE AREA OF AN INVERTED TROUGH.
    THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB STARTS WITH HISPANIOLA IN THE AREA
    OF A TROUGH FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS. THE
    PATTERN CHANGES TO A RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. THE
    GFS MODEL FOR 200 MB SHOWS A TROUGH DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.


    Looks as if you will have this weather for the next few days !

    Radar Loop shows quite a bit over PC


    Best we can do at present

    Olly and the Team

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