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Thread: 2013, the Storms and the Fisherman in Paradise

  1. #11
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    yes, itr will move in tonight, first sprinkling been already done this late afternoon.
    nothing bad, some water for the flowers and trees is always welcome.

    cheers

    Mike

  2. #12
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    the rainload NE of Samana stays stationary, not moving anywhere, in a nice distance off the mainland.
    as so often the case, the portion over land came down inland as far as the Eastshores go, nothing happened in PC.
    we are today for DR Mothers Day under clear blue skies, very low wind, flat calm Ocean, just perfect to get da BBQ's ready on the beaches all around.

    HAPPY MOTHERS DAY to all the Mommies out there!!!

    the Atlantic basin stays calm,
    while the Eastern Pacific is raising the bar, with Invest 92E popping up right of the central american westshores, a typical earlt season close to land appearing rough area, the ones which are hard to impossible to predict.

    have a great Mommies sunday everyone

    Mike

  3. #13
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    taken from the Blog on the weather underground, by Jeff Masters:
    -------------------
    <b style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 12px;"><big>Eastern Pacific tropical disturbance bringing heavy rains to Mexico and Guatemala</big>
    Invest 92E in the Eastern Pacific, centered about 100 miles southwest of the Mexico/Guatemala border, will bring very heavy rains capable of causing dangerous flash floods and mudslides to coastal Guatemala and Mexico's Bay of Tehuantepec over the next three days. Radar out of El Mozotal, Mexico shows that heavy rains have already pushed ashore along the Mexico/Guatemala border, and satellite loops show an impressive and expanding area of heavy thunderstorms associated with 92E, with some spiral bands beginning to develop on the storm's south side. In their 5 am PDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 92E a 60% of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday. I put these odds higher, at 80%. The 0Z Monday runs of the GFS and ECMWF both predict that 92E could develop into a tropical depression by Tuesday. With wind shear a low 5 -10 knots and ocean temperatures a very warm 30C, conditions are ripe for further development, and I expect 92E will be a tropical depression or tropical storm when it makes landfall on Wednesday along the Mexican coast in the Bay of Tehuantepec.

    In the Atlantic, the models are depicting high wind shear through June 1 over the majority of the regions we typically see May tropical cyclone development--the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and Bahamas. The GFS and ECMWF models are showing a decrease in wind shear over the Western Caribbean after June 1, which would argue for an increased chance of tropical storm development then (though wind shear forecasts more than 7 days in advance are highly unreliable.)


    </b>


    it is large, surrounding conditions are perfect for a fast grow up even that the system is very close to Land, less than a hundred miles off the Mexican/Guatemalan Border.
    we can expect this season a good number of fast uppopping system close to land at different locations, we have very high SSTemps present along long portions of the northamerican SE shores, in the Gulf of Mexico, thru may locations of the Caribbean Sea and also near our Paradise Island.
    the above shown System, threatening Mexico and Guatemala, is wide and will push heavy rains over Mexico, Guatemala, Yucatan and into the SW'ern Caribbean Sea.
    no effects for us so far, but it shows under which conditions the 2013 season most likely will run.
    right now we have for our own surroundings high windshear present and it will continue to stay on the high level for the next 4-5 days, further ahead the windshear models are sorrily highly unreliable, but they show agreement taht the windshear for our areas will go down after JUne 1st, so by the 2nd week of june we may run good to great conditions for stormy developments right in front of our doors.
    I don't await 2013 to provide a boring eventless summer, noap.

    Mike

  4. #14
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    today's update on the Blog of the weather underground:
    ------------------------
    <b style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 12px;"><big>Development unlikely in the Atlantic this week</big>
    If 92E continues to push northwards late this week and cross into the Gulf of Mexico, conditions do not favor development of the disturbance into an Atlantic tropical depression, as wind shear is expected to be quite high over the Gulf late this week. None of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic during the next seven days. The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days, is currently located in the Eastern Pacific, but is weak and difficult to discern. According to NOAA's May 27 MJO discussion, there is an increased probability of tropical cyclone formation over both the Eastern Pacific and Caribbean this week, and over the Caribbean next week. The GFS model has been trying to spin up a tropical depression in the Western Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico next week in a number of its runs over the past few days, but these runs have been very inconsistent on the timing and location of such a development. Tropical cyclone genesis forecasts more than four days out are highly unreliable, and we should just view the GFS model's predictions of a tropical depression next week as a sign that we have an above-average chance of an Atlantic tropical cyclone forming then. The European (ECMWF) model has been much less enthusiastic about a tropical depression forming in the Atlantic next week.


    </b>

  5. #15
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    the lil Storm on the Mexican/Guatemalan Pacific coast is quiet the decider for our actual weather around the island, including here on the far eastshores, and will continue for several days to do so, even stronger then, i guess.
    b.astard.

    Mike

  6. #16
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    Tropical Storm Barbara formed fast out of Incest 92E right off the Mexican Pacific Coast and is awaited to make landfall this afternoon, very likely as a weak Hurricane Cat1 or as a strong TS Force. the storm is small in size, that means very vulnerable when touching land. IF it suvives the walk into the Gulf of Mexico the walking direction can be expected to be northwards thru the Gulf of Mexico. stormsurge and heavy rainfalls are a threat for the landfall area, which is not really storm experienced, TS/Hurricanes are very seldom over there, on the other hand the area is not much populated, so hopefully nobody will get hurt.
    all clear on our surroundings, no storm formation awaited for the next days near Paradise Island.

    Mike

  7. #17
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    <object classid="clsid:d27cdb6e-ae6d-11cf-96b8-444553540000" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=9,0,0,0" width="640" height="485" id="wundermap" align="middle">
    <param name="allowScriptAccess" value="always" />
    <param name="allowFullScreen" value="true" />
    <param name="flashVars" value="baseXMLFile=http://www.wunderground.com/flashstationmaps/hurricane_wundermap_xml.asp%3Flat=30.1%26lon=-64.6%26zoom=4%26width=640%26height=485&mapKey=ABQIAAAAkt9u4_mEBla-Kpp-TOJkYBRbXNth7E_HnHKWvT2cUvXP-Y7zShQubKOvU3jNMd80xgm3retTyu3Rgw" />
    <param name="movie" value="http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap.swf" />
    <param name="quality" value="high" />
    <param name="bgcolor" value="#ffffff" />
    <embed src="http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap.swf" quality="high" bgcolor="#ffffff" width="640" height="485" name="wundermap" align="middle" allowScriptAccess="always" allowFullScreen="true" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" pluginspage="http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer" flashVars="baseXMLFile=http://www.wunderground.com/flashstationmaps/hurricane_wundermap_xml.asp%3Flat=30.1%26lon=-64.6%26zoom=4%26width=640%26height=485&mapKey=ABQIAAAAkt9u4_mEBla-Kpp-TOJkYBRbXNth7E_HnHKWvT2cUvXP-Y7zShQubKOvU3jNMd80xgm3retTyu3Rgw" />
    </object>

  8. #18
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    the above map is autoupdating and shows the active storms around the Globe.
    the starting cut is focused on the atlantic basin, our hometurf, but with the directional keys shown on the map you can move to any location in the world to see where da thunder rolls.
    for example right now, the only active storm on the globe is Hurricane Barbara, a Cat 1 Cyclone which is over land in southern mexico/Guatemalan border.
    to see that hurricane just press on the map the symbol for scolling "left" and you will see right away the "1! symbol in yellow for the hurricane. you can do a left mouseclick on the yellow hurricane symbol(and on any other shown symbol) to get more detailed info about that specific storm, strength, time when it was right there at the position etc etc etc .
    you also can zoom in/out on the map and other stuff, play around with it, i found it to be a nice and informative feature for our weather topic here on DR1.

    nothing new around our own hometurf

    Mike

  9. #19
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    to add info on your map(you need to add it again once you refreshed the page), use the 4 option boxes in the Maps top named "Radar", "Satellite", "Hurricane" and "Options", so you can add for example the visible Sat layers of clouds to the map etc etc

    the symbol on the left top corner of the map is to switch to Full Screen mode for the map.

    Mike

  10. #20
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    Pacific Cyclone Barbara is down on Tropical Depression strength again, weakened quick over land. while on the rise the system pushed bad weather conditions out very far, today the last portion of that is passing over our Island. ocean is rough over here on the east and skies are under grey clouds.

    Mike

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