2013, the Storms and the Fisherman in Paradise

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MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
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no worries, guys, nothing around which could harm our relaxed Paradise Island Lifestyle, at least not that i would have heard of any stormy thingy near our soil, to be honest, that early in the season i did not look very detailed, yet.
but we are close to the time when extraordinary early surprises can come up, so i think it's time to start our 2013 Season Weather/Storm/Hurricane-Watch and Info Topic.


Mike
 

MikeFisher

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this is the most useful basic Map to have a daily look on, just to see if anything tropical storm formation wise is active anywhere in the Atlantic Basin, Caribbean Sea and/or Gulf of Mexico.
the map is on autoupdate, so it shows all news about disturbed weather formations updated every 6hrs right here below.
the updates usually start every year on June 1st and run thru the whole hurricane season.


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MikeFisher

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the first chart shows the Sea Surface Temperatures on the full world map,
the 2nd map is a cut of our area of interest, the Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico, Bahamas and the northamerican Eastshores.

while the US just finished one of the coolest Aprils since a very long time, the Ocean's Surface shows the opposite, it is early in the year very hot and such usually promises a heck of activity out there, when colder airportions hit the hotzones over those hot waters. as opposed to the cold temps over the mainland, the waters off the US Eastshores up to New York show very high Sea Surface Temps. it would be unusual for that area, but such combination hides the danger of early season quick and nearshore uppopping formations near the coast, when cooler air from the mainland heads off over the Ocean.

all our Highway from the West African Cap Verde Islands, where the big Boys and Gals are born, over here to the Caribbean Islands, including most of the Caribbean Sea, the Gulf of Mexico and the SE shores of the US, all those areas are actually on very hot SST conditions, means the conditions are ready to rumble.


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keepcoming

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It is that time of year again. Looking forward to all your updates.
 

MikeFisher

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yeah, its that time of the year, and as you can see now on the temps charts above, Invest 91E in the Eastern Pacific/off the Mexican Westshores is a actually active System under investigation.
the Maps do automatically update themselves here, so no need to repost them again and again to get the most actual news, they always show up here on page one, easy to find.
now i try the best way to place the San Juan/PR Radar station here, it should show up in the next 15 minutes, it is the next radar station which shows everything cloudy/rainy coming from the East towards Hispaniola/DR.

Mike
 

MikeFisher

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this is the link to the San Juan Radar Station, it shows what comes out of the East towards the IslandNWS radar image loop of Long Range Reflectivity from Puerto Rico/Virgin Islands


Mike<link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="main.css" title="radar"><link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="radar.css" title="radar"><link rel="shortcut icon" type="image/x-icon" href="http://www.dr1.com/forums/images/favicon.ico">
 

Olly

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From Storm Carib - thanks to Gert Go to Caribbean Hurricane Network - stormCARIB.com - Local Reports on Tropical Systems threatening the Caribbean Islands for the links !!

Thursday, May 23, 2013 13:35PM PDT - NOAA predicts above average hurricane season
Today NOAA came out with their outlook for the upcoming season. They expect an above average season. It might even be an extremely factors if three climate factors come together; the status of the multi-decadal signal, above average sea surface temperatures and an absence of El Nino conditions. More detail on the NOAA news website, or more technical on the Climate Prediction Center. Officially one more week to go, it's never too early to check on your hurricane shutters, and other preparations you have to make. Unless you prefer to stand in long lines, and have slim pickings of necessities when a storm is heading your way... -Gert

Olly and the Team
 

MikeFisher

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as we have nothing to watch, yet, let's take a closer look on the now everywhere published latest Season Outlooks for the 2013 Season, as most people do never really read the stuff, they just remember after reading such articles words like "above ACTIVE Season" etc etc, freak mentally out due fear of a extra dozen big Boys coming over their home, which of course is in no way the case, not even close to such scenario.
*** i start with the 2013 Outlook of the National Hurricane Center from May 23rd 2013, which is the latest update.
NOAA calls for a above active hurricane season and awaits the following numbers of storms(with a 70% chance that those numbers will be the finally really happening numbers):
16 named storms
9 hurricanes
4-5 mayor hurricanes
a ACE Index(Accumulated Cyclone Energy) of 162% of normal/average.

sounds scary?
NO, and when reading further you will understand why this is nothing to be scared of.

*** as fact we are on the large scale of mother nature's long running cycles on a Active Hurricane Period since 1995, since 18years, and the AVERAGE as Fact of really HAPPENED Storm numbers for the period 1995-2012 is:
15 named storms
8 hurricanes
4 mayor hurricanes
ACE Index of 151%

you see that those as fact numbers, which really happened 1995-2012, do not much/almost zero vary from the numbers of storms forecasted to come up this 2013 season.
so if you visited/lived in the Hurricane regions around the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, Western Atlantic Basin during the last 18 years, in that case the Outlook for the 2013 Season say's that you have to await for this year/Season exactly the same that you experienced during the last 18 years.

since the beginning of the active Hurricane Period in 1995 only only 5 seasons(including 4 !!! El Ni?o years and including 2007-a neutral season) have not been above normal/average, all others been what is predicted for this 2013 season.

so keep cool, run the same preparations as every season, do that ahead of time before the last minute people start to run long lines at suppliers stores to get the stuff which they should have stored at home since weeks/months, and all will be as every summer been since a long time.

and we have always to keep one important thing in mind:
independend of how many storms pop up, the numbers do not indicate how many storms will threaten habitated areas and how many will occur out on Sea and kill themselves out on Sea without any danger for Humans. we had so many active years with relatively little damage/hits, and even during a low activity season one single Beast can mess around and do more destruction than in other years large numbers of nothing did.

even predicted much higher, last year's Season provided just 2 systems which reached the Level of a Mayor Hurricane, that been hurricane Michael and Hurricane Sandy. what the outcome of that Low number of big hurricanes in the season been is not necessary to describe here, as the One who hit been more destructive than so Many been before.

the british private forecaster company TSR and PSU/Penn State predict activities around the ones given by NOAA, so we can say that the big shots of forecasters are in agreement on their outlook for the season.

and we are already BEHIND the numbers of last year/season, as we had Tropical Storm Alberto formed May 21st 2012 and Tropical Storm Beryl on May 26th 2012.
actual windshears over our regions of interest are very high and forecasted to stay high for the next 7 days or more, so a early season Tropical Storm before June is very unlikely. the further windshear forecasts/ more than maximum a week ahead of time, are very unreliable, so a further outlook into June is not possible.

Mike
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
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Olly,
you guys have any insight on the waterload buildinh up NE of Samana since this late morning?
not moving much/stationary, but a very wet and windy small piece of something hanging on the low level.
Windshear is at exactly that area completely down, while our surroundings over all run a good amount of protective WS.

Mike
 

Olly

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Mar 12, 2007
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Mike - This is probably the cause :

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013



A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N71W...TO 27N71W 21N69W...TO 15N65W
IN THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE NEARBY ATLANTIC OCEAN SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 67W...AND
FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 67W AND 70W.

HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA AT THE MOMENT. THE BASE OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
15N65W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SPAN THE AREA OF HISPANIOLA
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. EXPECT A CHANCE OF RAINSHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE GFS MODEL FOR
700 MB STARTS WITH THE AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW...AND ULTIMATELY IN THE AREA OF AN INVERTED TROUGH.
THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB STARTS WITH HISPANIOLA IN THE AREA
OF A TROUGH FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS. THE
PATTERN CHANGES TO A RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. THE
GFS MODEL FOR 200 MB SHOWS A TROUGH DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.


Looks as if you will have this weather for the next few days !

Radar Loop shows quite a bit over PC


Best we can do at present

Olly and the Team
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
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the rainload NE of Samana stays stationary, not moving anywhere, in a nice distance off the mainland.
as so often the case, the portion over land came down inland as far as the Eastshores go, nothing happened in PC.
we are today for DR Mothers Day under clear blue skies, very low wind, flat calm Ocean, just perfect to get da BBQ's ready on the beaches all around.

HAPPY MOTHERS DAY to all the Mommies out there!!!

the Atlantic basin stays calm,
while the Eastern Pacific is raising the bar, with Invest 92E popping up right of the central american westshores, a typical earlt season close to land appearing rough area, the ones which are hard to impossible to predict.

have a great Mommies sunday everyone

Mike
 

MikeFisher

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taken from the Blog on the weather underground, by Jeff Masters:
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<b style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 12px;"><big>Eastern Pacific tropical disturbance bringing heavy rains to Mexico and Guatemala</big>
Invest 92E in the Eastern Pacific, centered about 100 miles southwest of the Mexico/Guatemala border, will bring very heavy rains capable of causing dangerous flash floods and mudslides to coastal Guatemala and Mexico's Bay of Tehuantepec over the next three days. Radar out of El Mozotal, Mexico shows that heavy rains have already pushed ashore along the Mexico/Guatemala border, and satellite loops show an impressive and expanding area of heavy thunderstorms associated with 92E, with some spiral bands beginning to develop on the storm's south side. In their 5 am PDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 92E a 60% of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday. I put these odds higher, at 80%. The 0Z Monday runs of the GFS and ECMWF both predict that 92E could develop into a tropical depression by Tuesday. With wind shear a low 5 -10 knots and ocean temperatures a very warm 30?C, conditions are ripe for further development, and I expect 92E will be a tropical depression or tropical storm when it makes landfall on Wednesday along the Mexican coast in the Bay of Tehuantepec.

In the Atlantic, the models are depicting high wind shear through June 1 over the majority of the regions we typically see May tropical cyclone development--the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and Bahamas. The GFS and ECMWF models are showing a decrease in wind shear over the Western Caribbean after June 1, which would argue for an increased chance of tropical storm development then (though wind shear forecasts more than 7 days in advance are highly unreliable.)


</b>
ep201392_sat_2.jpg



it is large, surrounding conditions are perfect for a fast grow up even that the system is very close to Land, less than a hundred miles off the Mexican/Guatemalan Border.
we can expect this season a good number of fast uppopping system close to land at different locations, we have very high SSTemps present along long portions of the northamerican SE shores, in the Gulf of Mexico, thru may locations of the Caribbean Sea and also near our Paradise Island.
the above shown System, threatening Mexico and Guatemala, is wide and will push heavy rains over Mexico, Guatemala, Yucatan and into the SW'ern Caribbean Sea.
no effects for us so far, but it shows under which conditions the 2013 season most likely will run.
right now we have for our own surroundings high windshear present and it will continue to stay on the high level for the next 4-5 days, further ahead the windshear models are sorrily highly unreliable, but they show agreement taht the windshear for our areas will go down after JUne 1st, so by the 2nd week of june we may run good to great conditions for stormy developments right in front of our doors.
I don't await 2013 to provide a boring eventless summer, noap.

Mike
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
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today's update on the Blog of the weather underground:
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<b style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 12px;"><big>Development unlikely in the Atlantic this week</big>
If 92E continues to push northwards late this week and cross into the Gulf of Mexico, conditions do not favor development of the disturbance into an Atlantic tropical depression, as wind shear is expected to be quite high over the Gulf late this week. None of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic during the next seven days. The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days, is currently located in the Eastern Pacific, but is weak and difficult to discern. According to NOAA's May 27 MJO discussion, there is an increased probability of tropical cyclone formation over both the Eastern Pacific and Caribbean this week, and over the Caribbean next week. The GFS model has been trying to spin up a tropical depression in the Western Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico next week in a number of its runs over the past few days, but these runs have been very inconsistent on the timing and location of such a development. Tropical cyclone genesis forecasts more than four days out are highly unreliable, and we should just view the GFS model's predictions of a tropical depression next week as a sign that we have an above-average chance of an Atlantic tropical cyclone forming then. The European (ECMWF) model has been much less enthusiastic about a tropical depression forming in the Atlantic next week.


</b>
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
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the lil Storm on the Mexican/Guatemalan Pacific coast is quiet the decider for our actual weather around the island, including here on the far eastshores, and will continue for several days to do so, even stronger then, i guess.
b.astard.

Mike
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
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Tropical Storm Barbara formed fast out of Incest 92E right off the Mexican Pacific Coast and is awaited to make landfall this afternoon, very likely as a weak Hurricane Cat1 or as a strong TS Force. the storm is small in size, that means very vulnerable when touching land. IF it suvives the walk into the Gulf of Mexico the walking direction can be expected to be northwards thru the Gulf of Mexico. stormsurge and heavy rainfalls are a threat for the landfall area, which is not really storm experienced, TS/Hurricanes are very seldom over there, on the other hand the area is not much populated, so hopefully nobody will get hurt.
all clear on our surroundings, no storm formation awaited for the next days near Paradise Island.

Mike
 

MikeFisher

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MikeFisher

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the above map is autoupdating and shows the active storms around the Globe.
the starting cut is focused on the atlantic basin, our hometurf, but with the directional keys shown on the map you can move to any location in the world to see where da thunder rolls.
for example right now, the only active storm on the globe is Hurricane Barbara, a Cat 1 Cyclone which is over land in southern mexico/Guatemalan border.
to see that hurricane just press on the map the symbol for scolling "left" and you will see right away the "1! symbol in yellow for the hurricane. you can do a left mouseclick on the yellow hurricane symbol(and on any other shown symbol) to get more detailed info about that specific storm, strength, time when it was right there at the position etc etc etc .
you also can zoom in/out on the map and other stuff, play around with it, i found it to be a nice and informative feature for our weather topic here on DR1.

nothing new around our own hometurf

Mike
 

MikeFisher

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to add info on your map(you need to add it again once you refreshed the page), use the 4 option boxes in the Maps top named "Radar", "Satellite", "Hurricane" and "Options", so you can add for example the visible Sat layers of clouds to the map etc etc

the symbol on the left top corner of the map is to switch to Full Screen mode for the map.

Mike
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
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Pacific Cyclone Barbara is down on Tropical Depression strength again, weakened quick over land. while on the rise the system pushed bad weather conditions out very far, today the last portion of that is passing over our Island. ocean is rough over here on the east and skies are under grey clouds.

Mike
 
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