2015 Hurricane Season

Let the fisherman look after this thread, he has in the past.

Naaa, WUD.
Olly is doing right and just fine.
i was not even able to log into DR1 during last season, for reasons which been explained to me to be a problem with Claro, just that i could use every bord on the wide cyberspace but DR1, well, so where may the problem have been?
while is can log in and post during the last months fine, this year the mayor trouble is that of many new posts i do not get the usual e-mail notifications about the new posts on a followed Topic, or for example here on the subscribed to Section about Weather&Beyond. i found this Topic here right now by coincedence, but it is 4 days old and i am subscribed to the whole Section/topic, but no notification about the new addy.
without such simple features working it is not worth to try to keep such theme up to date, as logging in many times per day and "searching" for new addies is not an option, it would be a waste of time which can be used otherwise.
Olly is nice on the things around the weather and seems to do fine to check the bord for new additions/answers/postings.
myself i will stick to check the weather and conditions and storms as needed for my business and safety of the boats and family, but no follow up on predictions or such for other than the own needs.

Mike

Ok , Olly for it....

Being Caribbean boaties, my wife and I are always interested in the tropical season forecasts. This year we feel will be a quiet year because of the lower seawater surface temperatures that I'm seeing every day at the desal plants.
This is the site we use. It has some cool maps outlining different risk zones and added facts from past hurricanes during other "quiet years". Updated 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecasts Have Been Released By Tropical Storm Risk & Colorado State

First Tropical Storm of the season off Florida/S Carolina coast........Ana

ju10prd said:

First Tropical Storm of the season off Florida/S Carolina coast........Ana

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Saw this today, and it's not even June yet. Funny that they're calling for such a slow season.. But who knows???

jstarebel said:

Saw this today, and it's not even June yet. Funny that they're calling for such a slow season.. But who knows???

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sorry buddy, but you guys have to read the whole forecast articles, not just the headlines which correctly state "calm season ahead".
the calm season forecast(Olly provided at the beginning the correct links with the complete info) does state exactly the reasons why it calls for a calm season over all, and it also states the Danger Zones where most of the season's Storm Activity is awaited to happen as the conditions in those areas are good for stormies, while the conditions are bad for stormies on da Highway between Africa and the Caribbean, bad in the central and eastern caribbean Sea.
conditions are awaited (and always are) to be good for storm formations along the United States East shores, special the anyways dangerzone SE-USA, conditions are due that also favorable north northwest of our Island, also favorable for the whole Gulf of Mexico and the Western Caribbean Sea, which includes Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula, all Gulf Coastlines and the SE USA as the Mayor Formation and Hit Zones for the 2015 Hurricane Season. as in those mentioned danger areas typically Storms form up close to land, they do not have much time over water before making landfall, hence the storms forming there can be awaited to stay within the power measures of Tropical Storm and Hurricane Cat1 categories. a Mayor Hurricane needs time and space to gain such highpowers, hence those big ones are the ones who form further off the Coasts and then grow bigger and bigger with time while walking towards their final destin.
always keep in mind that aboce stated is just a general look on things, of course anything of the contrary could always happen, as that Mom Nature is not that easy to have a look on, and da Biach quiet often changes her mind, hence she's a female, lol.

Mike

The links I posted in my first post showed the different risk zones Mike. I saw them, but to start before June is a little scary. Especially for a boat owner. Ordinarily, I don't start worrying until August. I even decided to move my boat to Anguilla later this month after looking at the zones that you mention because Anguilla is in a low risk zone, and Anguilla also got hit by a hurricane last year so I'm figuring based on the law of averages that they wont get hit this year. No place for a boat to hide in Anguilla except on St. Maarten, and it's really not that great. It's a 14 hr sail back to the safety of a mangrove lagoon in St. Thomas if something comes up. Take care Mike!

jstarebel said:

The links I posted in my first post showed the different risk zones Mike. I saw them, but to start before June is a little scary. Especially for a boat owner. Ordinarily, I don't start worrying until August. I even decided to move my boat to Anguilla later this month after looking at the zones that you mention because Anguilla is in a low risk zone, and Anguilla also got hit by a hurricane last year so I'm figuring based on the law of averages that they wont get hit this year. No place for a boat to hide in Anguilla except on St. Maarten, and it's really not that great. It's a 14 hr sail back to the safety of a mangrove lagoon in St. Thomas if something comes up. Take care Mike!

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yes, agreed on the probability calculations.
you have the mangroves there, we had for decades only the (not very safe) Rivers to hide in, here on the Isle.
since the Cap Cana Marina is finished we have luckily a safe-hole right here, the Marina is the only north caribbean Marina accepted by Insurers up to Hurricane Cat1 force. to get hit by anything awaited bigger than a Cat1 Category Hurricane would be for here(the southern tip of the DR Eastshores around Punta Cana/Cap Cana) some superbig historical Hit, so i guess we are safe to say i never again need to move the boats elsewhere for any storm, as i am since 4 years permanently based at that Marina as my Homebase.
good luck to you, too

Mike

where are our observing reporters?
here, at least on the easthsores, we already finished the dead calm and bonedry spring/early summer conditions.
NWS radar image loop of Long Range Reflectivity from Puerto Rico/Virgin Islands

looks nice refreshing for air and flowers
Western Atlantic - Visible Loop (Flash) - Satellite Products and Services Division/Office of Satellite and Product Operations

Mike

Hoping it reaches the North Coast. Would love a good wash.

Lindsey

I am washing.
wanna join?
hehe
my chihuahua is such a coward, a lil thunder in the far distance and she starts to hide.
she is freaked out since a couple hours now and will have a hard night i guess.

Mike

Well, well, I remember 2 years ago, there were warnings everywhere : the hurricane season will be wild...
And then what happened? Casi nada. IMHO this can not be forecasted. And thats part of it...

actually there is zero to forecast, because there is nothing happening.
some rain that moved ashore, some more moving towards the south.
nothing worth to write about.
no forecast

Mike

MikeFisher said:

I am washing.
wanna join?
hehe
my chihuahua is such a coward, a lil thunder in the far distance and she starts to hide.
she is freaked out since a couple hours now and will have a hard night i guess.

Mike

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Mike, don't be too hard on your chihuahua buddy, my 125LB + rottweiler was just the same!

Black Dog said:

Mike, don't be too hard on your chihuahua buddy, my 125LB + rottweiler was just the same!

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haha, right, it's not about size.
my partner has a monster of a Rhodesian Ridgeback Lady, the same cowards once a single thunder in the far away distance heard, lol.
as for the moving in/by weather,
here on the East we are today cloudy but under perfectly calm Sea Conditions.
so far no more rain since last nights showers.
wind is on the very low side.
it's just weather, nothing to follow up about

Mike

and of course she spent the night in MY Bed.
excuses, those females always find their excuses, hehe

Mike