Strong El Nino - More rain or still less rain?

windeguy

Platinum
Jul 10, 2004
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El Nino, the worst for years

According to the World Meteorological Organization this year's El Nino phenomenon is among the most active since 1950.

The surface water temperature in the central-east Pacific is some two degrees Celsius above normal. This has only occurred on three previous occasions in the last 65 years: in 1972-73, 1982-83 and 1997-98.

Weather experts say that this El Nino episode will become even more active before the end of the year. It could mean more rainfall than usual in autumn and winter.

As expected with El Nino, the frequency of Atlantic storms and hurricanes has been less than usual but storms in the east and central Pacific have been stronger than usual.

http://eldia.com.do/el-episodio-de-el-nino-sera-uno-de-los-mas-intensos-segun-la-onu/
 

windeguy

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Jul 10, 2004
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Other predictions have mentioned the drought would continue here in the DR for many months. So what is it? More rain than normal or a continued drought?
 

Cdn_Gringo

Gold
Apr 29, 2014
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More rain and ice storms possibly snow midwest to east coast in the northern latitudes, basically more of the same everywhere. This year has seen hot dry weather in western NA and here and piles of rain in the east. Essentially what you have been getting is what you can expect for the most part for months to come unless something changes in the pacific to disrupt the "El Nino effect." I just posted elsewhere there may be a bit of a respite for us Oct/Nov but there is no certainty in this prediction.
 

Olly

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Mar 12, 2007
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The Team have been keeping rainfall data for the north coast of the DR for over 8 years now. A look at the El Ninos pattern does not seem to show much correlation between North Coast Rainfall and El Nino.
http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm
Most of the north coast rainfall in winter comes from cold Fronts that push down from the USA. If it is going to be colder there then there is the possiblity of more rainfall during October thru March.
Much of the summer rainfall comes from Tropical Waves TStorms and Hurricanes and the major influence there seems to be the SAR -Saharan Air Layer.
The wind shear effect from El Nino does play a part and disrupts them often before they get to DR so low rainfall in the summer months is effected by El Nino.

So it is hard to make predictions either way.

Olly and the Team ( mainly the Team)
 
Nov 6, 2014
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I believe lesser rains but stronger typhoons! With the ocean getting warmer, it might have to develop much stronger typhoon. They say that El Nino will last until June of next year!
 

william webster

Platinum
Jan 16, 2009
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on the north coast, I have a trick to predict the weather.

The normal breeze and wave flow is from the east.
whenever I see it come from the northwest or west...
I batten the hatches.

Never missed yet.


Does that me part of the Team , Olly

New info here !!!
 

Criss Colon

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Jan 2, 2002
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yahoomail.com
"THEY"!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :cheeky::cheeky::cheeky::cheeky::cheeky::cheeky::cheeky::cheeky::cheeky:
Ccccccccccccccccccccccccccccc
 

mart1n

New member
Jul 13, 2006
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It must have been El Nino for three years now because the weather has been the same no rain for the north coast.
As far as tropical storms, hurricanes they all either die before they get here or go around.
 

Criss Colon

Platinum
Jan 2, 2002
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yahoomail.com
10,000 years ago,and several times before then, there were glaciers covering all of Canada, AND HALF THE USA,
They CARVED OUT THE "GREAT LAKES" in the USA, and thousands more in Canada.
Al Gore, and the "Global Warming Crew" would have had a field day blaming the "Eskimos" for too much farting depleting the ozone layer!!!
Accurate Records about climate only go back about 100 years.
You can blame anyone/thing you want for the current warming cycle, if it is indeed a "cycle" and not just a "blip".
Only time will tell,and we will all be long dead before anyone knows for sure.

CCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCC
 

bienamor

Kansas redneck an proud of it
Apr 23, 2004
5,050
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Accurate Records about climate only go back about 100 years.
You can blame anyone/thing you want for the current warming cycle, if it is indeed a "cycle" and not just a "blip".
Only time will tell,and we will all be long dead before anyone knows for sure.
CCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCC

Not sure you can use the word accurate even. Some of the weather monitors that used to be in fields are now in parking lots. Sure that makes a difference.
http://www.surfacestations.org/odd_sites.htm
 

sirlurksalot

Member
Apr 2, 2002
60
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6
Northwest/West wind = Rain.

on the north coast, I have a trick to predict the weather.

The normal breeze and wave flow is from the east.
whenever I see it come from the northwest or west...
I batten the hatches.

Never missed yet.


Does that me part of the Team , Olly

New info here !!!
Exactly! We are a little further west than you, on the north coast in Buen Hombre. We are usually there January to mid March. Whenever the wind shifts to the northwest/west rain develops in a day or so. This cold front generated rain is usually lasts a day or more. Not the kind produced by a single cloud for 5-10 minutes. Our part of the island is a semi-arid zone so an occasional heavy rain is welcome.