Getting the best air fare from the USA - details
I've posted this before, but I'll post it again for anybody that did not catch it the first time.
The best way to get a good air fare and applies mostly to people departing from the USA.
First, you need to have some advance time to think about this. Minimum is 6 months but a couple of years is better. I realize this is not possible for someone planning their first trip so you had better use a good travel agent.
You need to know the historical highs and lows over the past couple years for a given route. The lowest available fare goes up and down with season, demand, an airline's need for cash, etc. and there is no for sure way to know when the fares will go up or down except that holidays are almost always high.
When the current fare is near the historical low, buy. When it is high, wait. The cycle of low to high will vary from 1 to 6 months, but usually is in the 3 month range. Low fares will last anywhere from a few days to a few weeks. That means if the fare just went down, you probably have less than 2 weeks to take advantage and once they go up, you'll have to wait 2-3 months before you see them fall again. It could be 1 month or it could be 6 months (as we saw this past summer) before the low fares reappear but I found 3 months to be the average cycle.
In my experience, you'll also see some patterns of low and high fares. For example, fares to the Dominican Republic usually bottom out around September and October and peak around December and March. May usually brings about another round of lows when the "Summer Sales" start to happen.
I've never found any benefit in buying more than 3 months in advance and if the fare has not bottomed out when your travel dates are 3 weeks away, it probably will not. Most of the lowest fares carry restrictions, including 21 day advance purchase, Saturday night stay, and a maximum stay of 30 days.
Unfortunately, I don't know of any site that tracks the history of the low fares available for a particular route, so you are stuck with tracking it yourself. You can use a fare tracking service such as travelocity.com or expedia.com, where they e-mail you the current fare along a particular route whenever the fare changes by a certain amount but I find this to be unreliable.
When I'm waiting to buy tickets, I check the fare every couple days. Essentially, all airlines will match the fares of one another and the only reason you see a difference in fares amongst carriers is because one will sometimes sell out all their low fare seats. Each airline allocates a limited amount of seats available at the lower fare.
One good way to find the recent low for a route is to ask right here on the board.
Don't try to use the distance traveled to determine the cost of a plane ticket. Supply, demand, and competition will often have more affect on the price, which is why you can sometimes fly Cleveland to London with a connection in Newark for a lower price than just flying from Cleveland to Newark. Carriers even lose money on some flights in order to maintain the offering of a route.
For those that are looking for a quick weekend trip, internet fares are sometimes offered that beat event the recent low fares, but they are heavily restricted. You usually have to depart on a Thursday or Friday and MUST come back the following Monday or Tuesday. In addition, the fares are only offered 1 week or less before the departure date.
Any other low fares available are hit and miss. I've never been able to get a consolidator for example, to get me a good price to the Dominican Republic, but I get good quotes to Rio and Cancun all the time. Another option is package deals, but they usually limit your choices by making you book a specific hotel as well.
One more option is to use a charter. The drawbacks are many in exchange for the low fares they often offer. There are often severe limits on departure dates (usually weekends), baggage (restricted carry-on and lower weight limits for checked bags), and routes (Punta Cana is common). If the carrier has a problem with equipment or crew, delays of 1 or more days are not uncommon as their backup resources are limited. Many have contracts with major carriers in these cases but it isn't like American Airlines, where alternate crews or aircraft can be implemented in hours or minutes.
Some travel agents do so much business with a particular carrier, they can manage a fare below the lowest published fare. My agent will not reveal exactly how that is done, but she does get me an additional 10% off in many cases.
Finally, if time is cheap to to you, creative routing such as through Canada can sometimes net you a great fare.
For those that are interested, I use Corrine Smith of Independence Travel to purchase all tickets. She is the best agent in all my years of air travel and almost always beats any internet quote. There is a US$10 service charge but worth every penny if you travel often and like things done just right. 216-447-9950, 216-447-0090/fax Don't waste her time for curiosity's sake. Use her if you are ready to buy when the fare is good. And of course, tell her Jim Hinsch recommended her. If you are a one or two times a year traveler, I don't think it matters much who you use.