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Thread: hurricane season 2017

  1. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by Olly View Post
    Here is the forecast for 2017 courtesy Stormcarib http://stormcarib.com/

    Below normal hurricane season forecasted


    As a long time tradition the scientists at Colorado State have issued their Atlantic Hurricane Activity forecast. Philip Klotzbach and his team is calling for a slightly below average season. They expect 11 named storms (12 is normal), 4 hurricanes (6.5 is normal) of which 4 might become big ones (Cat-3+, 3.9 is normal).
    The probability of at least one major hurricane traveling through the Caribbean is 34% (42% is normal). The main reasons for this is that the Atlantic is pretty cool at the moment due to a persistent positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation, also, it looks like there might be weak El Nino conditions developing in the summer, which is not conducive to hurricane formation either.
    Three Caribbean locations have an above 10% change that a major hurricane will track within 50 miles some time during hurricane season: The Bahamas (29%), Cuba (19%) and Mexico (13%). Not sure how they calculate this, but it looks like size/area is a factor too.
    In any case, even if chances are small, there is still a chance! Only one big hurricane hitting your island will spoil your whole season! So, regardless, be ready! The best thing is to prepare now. Check that all your shutters are ready, have some supply of water, food, batteries and other emergency supplies. You all should know the drill by now. It is a lot easier to prepare for things now then just a few days before a storm might hit, when everyone else is scrambling at the grocery and home improvement stores

    Thanks to GERT of StormCarib

    Olly
    Olly, where has "THE TEAM" gone?

  2. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by Olly View Post
    Here is the forecast for 2017 courtesy Stormcarib http://stormcarib.com/

    Below normal hurricane season forecasted


    As a long time tradition the scientists at Colorado State have issued their Atlantic Hurricane Activity forecast. Philip Klotzbach and his team is calling for a slightly below average season. They expect 11 named storms (12 is normal), 4 hurricanes (6.5 is normal) of which 4 might become big ones (Cat-3+, 3.9 is normal).
    The probability of at least one major hurricane traveling through the Caribbean is 34% (42% is normal). The main reasons for this is that the Atlantic is pretty cool at the moment due to a persistent positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation, also, it looks like there might be weak El Nino conditions developing in the summer, which is not conducive to hurricane formation either.
    Three Caribbean locations have an above 10% change that a major hurricane will track within 50 miles some time during hurricane season: The Bahamas (29%), Cuba (19%) and Mexico (13%). Not sure how they calculate this, but it looks like size/area is a factor too.
    In any case, even if chances are small, there is still a chance! Only one big hurricane hitting your island will spoil your whole season! So, regardless, be ready! The best thing is to prepare now. Check that all your shutters are ready, have some supply of water, food, batteries and other emergency supplies. You all should know the drill by now. It is a lot easier to prepare for things now then just a few days before a storm might hit, when everyone else is scrambling at the grocery and home improvement stores

    Thanks to GERT of StormCarib

    Olly
    Since they get it wrong most of the time, this is not assuring. Usually they predict "higher than normal" and then there is not much activity.

  3. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marilyn View Post
    I saw this in twitter, does anyone know what it means?

    There's a low pressure system south of New Jersey and Cuba.

  4. #14
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    Thanks for the post Olly. I disagree and will gladly eat crow if I'm wrong, but it's been a very quiet three years in the Caribbean storm wise with only one major storm in those three years which tore up Haiti pretty bad last year. I believe this so much and because we have a summer project beginning on St.Maarten in July, that I just invested $1,500. In a good strong storm mooring inside the lagoon area of SXM for the boat. Four Sand screws and two 800kg block tied together with 1 1/2" chain. I hope I bought it for nothing, but I don't think so this year. Y'all know what BOAT stands for?? Break Out Another Thousand! Ok, 1500..

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  6. #15
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    Default Above-normal Atlantic hurricane season is most likely this year

    http://www.noaa.gov/media-release/ab...st-likely-year

    NOAA today in an updated report is predicting that an above normal hurricane season is more likely this year due to a weak or non-existent El Nino and normal or above normal sea temperatures.

    70% likelihood of 11- 17 named storms, 5 - 9 hurricanes and 2- 4 majors.

    Get ready!

    (Colorado State will be updating their forecast on 1st June apparently.)

  7. #16
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    so far absolutely nothing to worry about.
    on the long cycles we are on the aerage or even lower side of stormy actions.
    on the short term/for this Season, so far the conditions look like a normal/average phase on the scales.
    shiit can hit even on a lowest activity phase, and all can stay fine(as prooved so often) duirng heavy action phases.
    until now there is nothing to worry about for the 2017 Season,
    hence no time spent to report about "nothing".
    we keep watching out for what ever may pop up out there,
    in the meanwhile we keep playing on da Beaches, chasing Chicas and GO FISHING!!!

    cheers from perfect sunny Eastern Skies

    Mike

  8. #17
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    here we get the first warnings ahead of time, in case something is expected to maybe become a stormy activity.
    it should update automatically every 6hrs,
    by DR LOcal Time each 8AM, 2PM, 8PM and 2M.

    Mike



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  10. #18
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    the autoupdate in post 17 works, as the Invest in the Gulf of Mexic shows up there now.
    it is the rest of Pacific Storm Beatriz with no signs of any development there.

    lets enjoy a hot sunny beer cooled weeeekend

    Mike

  11. #19
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    mike, long time no see, my fren! i missed you!

    North Coast Moderator

  12. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by dv8 View Post
    mike, long time no see, my fren! i missed you!
    thank you.
    i am always around, just spend less time typing on the Net.
    Weather, we are watching you.

    Mike

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