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Thread: hurricane season 2017

  1. #531
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    Quote Originally Posted by MikeFisher View Post
    this Irma is so far on it's predicted path.
    it will come a bit closer and a bit farer all the time, thats normal on such tracking.
    over all it is wandering all day long on teh Tracking forecasted yesterday.
    of course we have Hurricane warning for the North and even for the whole Eastshores,
    such thing is never sure to not turn towards the Eastcoast and it anyways is very close to the norh shores.
    til now no hot forecasted on DR Terrain and very likely no Hurricane winds to be received on DR Terrain,
    but suhc is not out of the possibilities.
    20 miles further nort or south of a predicted path would make a immense difference on the outcome on such close forecasted storm, and the error possibilities on the Tracking are waaay bigger than just such short distance of error.
    the whole coastlines under Hurricane Alert have to be already Ready to move within a very short time/right away to a shelter or Huse/P¨Lace/Hideout safe to stand Hurricane Forces.
    thats the meaning of such Hurricane Alert.
    and i really hope people understand that and have a sure plan where to move to in case their home is not safe under hurricane force.

    Mike

    Maybe a reminder is in order where public shelters will be located: http://www.coe.gob.do/index.php/albergues

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  3. #532
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    North Coast Moderator

  4. #533
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    If you are on the North Coast and need gas, go get it now. Queues at gas stations and already some pumps dry.

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  6. #534
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    A lucky point? At least the bulk of the storm should be during daylight hours. Nothing like trying to survive in the middle of the night with only a flashlight.

    I still hope that the mountains in the PR and DR will knock it down a notch or two. Maybe not. On present track, mostly TS conditions for the north coast with gusts into Cat. 1. Being on the ocean, it's still the ocean surf and breaking waves being really high that worries me. Rain and flooding will keep us at home for a time along with downed trees and other obstacles.

    Power, internet, water, TV most likely out for who knows how long. So having some plans for that should be considered and how you handle it. It's not just the storm.... it's how long to get back to normal and being able to cope with that time.

    If you are not ready by now or can not finish being ready by tomorrow afternoon............... you might want to grab that already packed "get out of town" bag and do so.

    Thanks again to Mr. Fisher.

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  8. #535
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    I see the Florida Keys are already under evacuation.  Does the Government here ever warn people to evacuate ahead of time from coastal areas?  We're just darn too close to the ocean.  Concerned but not able to leave.  We've heard people in Cabarete (Dominicans and expats leaving to Santiago and Santo Domingo).

  9. #536
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    Quote Originally Posted by Natalia Z. View Post
    Using a source that I have always found to be quite reliable, I saw this information recently posted..........
    A) Results for Santa Domingo, Dominican Republic (18.47N, 69.9W):
    The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 20.1N, 69.3W or about 121.6 miles (195.6 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 1 day, 19 hours and 5 minutes from now (Thursday, September 7 at 1:36PM AST).
    B) Results for Punta Cana, Dominican Republic (18.57N, 68.37W):
    The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 19.7N, 68.0W or about 83.0 miles (133.6 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 1 day, 13 hours and 16 minutes from now (Thursday, September 7 at 7:48AM AST).
    C) Results for Puerto Plata I., Dominican Republic (19.75N, 70.55W):
    The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 20.5N, 70.4W or about 50.4 miles (81.1 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 1 day, 23 hours and 46 minutes from now (Thursday, September 7 at 6:18PM AST).
    With this information provided, Puerto Plata only being 50.4 miles from the predicted path of the eye of the storm, would definitely put them in line for hurricane force winds. With a Hurricane on a Scale 5, you can almost be guaranteed that the remainder of the country will feel a minimum of Tropical Storm force winds. The rain fall amounts will cover the entire country, as smaller past storms have proven.
    The path has moved north/south several times being 20 miles or more difference. Being on the "edge" is a lot different from a full head-on hit. The north coast will not get hit with Cat. 5 winds. (unless she very much changes direction.)

    So far it looks like POP in the TS 80% to almost 100% of the time. Cat. 1 gusts will happen. The odds of sustained Cat. 1 winds at this time are still low.

    But we have to wait for her to move along to get more and better information.

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  11. #537
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    and for any kinda plans guys have, whatsoever,
    one important Point:
    the shut will not start to hit the Ven when the Storm_Center is closest to your location,
    it will start many many hous before, because such Storm carries shutloads on all sides, not just at it's Center.
    it should start to get nasty here on the SE about noon ahead tomorrow.
    from there on people should simply not be out on the streets anymore and sure not plan to start a travel somewhere tomorrow afternoon or even in the evening.
    once the Sun stops to shine in it's usual perfect manner, is the time to be at safe sweet home,
    ready to close the doors when ever it starts to get more than just nasty.
    and it will get more than nasty .

    Mike

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  13. #538
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    Recon. just now recording 173 knot winds (199mph) and 913.1mb. Scary.

    Thankfully my friends are in Nevis and it should turn north west soon and head through Barbuda and SXM/Anguilla and St Barts but the thought of facing this head on makes one want to crap.

    I know Barbuda well and a few folks there and there is very little substantial there and it is very low lying where the 1600 or so people live so it could be carnage.

    We must remember that maybe 50k Dominicans live in the at risk areas.

  14. #539
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    Quote Originally Posted by Expat-in-Cabarete View Post
    I see the Florida Keys are already under evacuation.  Does the Government here ever warn people to evacuate ahead of time from coastal areas?  We're just darn too close to the ocean.  Concerned but not able to leave.  We've heard people in Cabarete (Dominicans and expats leaving to Santiago and Santo Domingo).
    I'm confused. You can't leave? Why not?

    The Govt here won't order an evacuation because logistically it can't pull something like that off. Many do not own a car and you really can't pile the family onto a moto and head to Santiago with clothes and other essentials. There aren't enough buses to move a population and the roads couldn't handle the traffic volume anyways.

    So back to you. You are concerned about the safety of the location you are in. You have heard of others who are also not satisfied with their situation and have left for somewhere safer. You have chosen to stay because? That little voice in your head is what you should be listening to, not the Government. In other words, if you are standing on the tracks and the train is coming full speed towards you, are you satisfied to wait for the train to stop or are you going to get out of the way on your own?


    Good luck.

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  16. #540
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    i decided i should dedicate tomorrow to baking just in case and sent miesposo to jose luis for last minute shopping. he said it was a mess already, packed with folks buying supplies.
    he is only working until noon tomorrow and we are going to do our hurricane prep tomorrow. locking the cats, bringing the dogs in for the night, all that jazz. remember to bring your rubbish bins inside as well, that stuff may fly.

    North Coast Moderator

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