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Thread: hurricane season 2017

  1. #131
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    some lil rain can never stop me from anything.
    o.k., maybe from riding the dirt bike and taking the car instead to get more bers from the colmado, lol.
    we had a perfectly calm sunny day all day long over here, no real rain since a while aside of the every once in a while happening short night bursts.
    no, i am not on stormcarib or such, no need for additional/extra internet time.
    i always try to be online less, with not much success, yet.
    enjoy your sunday BBQ
    Mike

  2. #132
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    quick sunday update about those stormy thingies,
    with not mucbh to tell as we are not in any expected danger.

    the system in the now Western Caribbean, right of the shores of Honduras, runs already windpowers near TS Force and should become a TD or a Name the next 24-36hrs.
    it will not become any danger for our Island, but it's heaviest Thunderstorm activities are on it's NE'ern Quadrant, so it should spawn out into that direction very far and reach Hispañola's SW and maybe SouthCentral with clouds.

    the Mid Highway Monster wanted much more than it can handle, it tries a too wide of an area to pack together, that will fail.
    it is running fully into dryer airmasses now and aside from short periods of lower windshear it will mainly run under strong to hostile windshear. any development should happen slowly, I doubt at this moment that it will manage anything.
    Tracking points more and more Northwards, so it should pass the NE'ernmost Islands close but miss them on their NE.
    by actual standings and outlooks it will not become anything we would need to watch out for.
    so we watch an other couple days just in case, 'cause there's anyways nothing else to watch.

    have a great sunny Beachy Sunday y'all.

    Mike

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  4. #133
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    TS Franklin should become quiet a Biach in the western caribbean sea, he is a growing strong storm, compact and tough, but far away from our home, so not of concern.

    the Disturbance mid Higway is now on the last 1000 miles towards the caribbean end of the highway.
    it shows no signs of organization and runs actully under very harsh conditions,
    i can not imagine any significant development for the next couple days.
    it's Heading continues cklearly to point Not towards the Caribbean Islands,
    that System, of what ever powers could pop up, will miss the Uslands and Us by a large and safe piece.

    an other hot and calm week ahead of us, it is important to kepe the fridges stocked with that tasy cold stuff,
    rehydration is key, it is good for your health, so don't let your Mrs tell you otherwise when you catch the next cold one from the fridge.

    Mike

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  6. #134
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    TS Franklin is over Yucatan since early morning, loosing powers over Land.
    it was a powerful quick rising TS, should be easily stable enough to survive the hrs over Land
    and continue intothe Gulf of Mexico/crossing the Bay of Campeche
    and gain powers again there. it's End is not near, yet.

    the System on the Highway, now only about 750 mls East of the northernmost Islands,
    get's feathered in a dry environment and under harsh Windshear.
    the hostile windshear should continue til tomorrow and knock it down enough to not give it a chance to become anything of significance anywhere near of us.
    also the Heading continues NW'wards, it will miss all Islands very far out, in a safe distance for whatsoever.

    as the Dry Saharan Sand Layers mid Atmosphere shifted nicely southwards during the last week,
    the Highway looks nicely protecting for us at this time. the "moistured" Gap mid Highway, cut by the actually observed system, should be closed back to dry in no time.
    Windshear is the important factor which is difficult to impossible to forecast, it changes often and it can change very quick from one extreme to the other. at this moment for most parts of the Highway the Windshear is on our protecting side, on a level which is bothersome to developing Systems/Storms.
    Windshear and dry air together are at the moment a nice security system for the Caribbean
    to protect from anything East-Born to develop too big/powerful.
    the waves should continue to leave the african continent heading towards western/caribbean pastures,
    but for the next days we should not get anything of concern.

    the Hot Phase for line ups of Tropical Waves over the Highway is on,
    it is from now til at least mid October that we have to watch out daily for any new upcoming "Dots on a Map".

    nothing bad in sight so far

    Mike

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  8. #135
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    nothing unexpected so far out there.
    Franklin survived the walk over Yucatan very well and rised the powers very quick over the Bay of Campeche,
    hitting the next target on the list as a Hurricane.

    as small as it looks, do not discard the Disturbance from the East.
    it is completely cut down on size, for this it shows organization, even actually for some more horus under hostile windshear and running all the time into dry Atmosphere.
    the bothering Saharan Sand Layer will drop form formerly heavy down to just "light",
    Windshear looks to become more and more favorable up to very favorable/barely existent during the next several days.
    located now 200 mls NE of the northern Islands,
    this Disturbance has still all possibilities to become a name to be scratched off the list.
    no worries for our Isle, if it happens, then it will happen North of our Island, while it wanders straight NW'wards towards the Mid East of the american shores.
    once it passed our area of influence it will have quiet great conditions for development.

    for ourselfes, all looks fine so far.

    Mike

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  10. #136
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    around Noon today the Disturbance from the far East benn on it's closest accounter to Caribbean Land
    about 200mls NE of the northernmost Leeward Islands.
    Heading is all the same, NW-Course,
    so it will stay more than 200mls as the closest point to Puerto Rico
    and much more on it's closest approach to Hispañola.
    no heavy TS Action on the southern quadrants, nothing to look out for for our Paradise Soil.
    Dry air is on the lower thickness now and qickly diminishing on the further path,
    windshear is already since mid morning on the favorable side for Storm development and even prognosted to get even better,
    with nice hot Sea Syrface temps on the way,
    i would be surprised not to see a lower scale Storm to form late weekend/earlly next week somewhere near the Bahamas
    on it's way to northern Fl/the Carolinas.
    didn't check steering patterns over there for next week, so i dn't know what exact direction it will take once approaching the Bahamas, i am satisfied to see no indicator of any changes/steerings that could bring it towards our Island.

    for this weekend no kinda danger awaited anywhere near our home

    Mike

  11. #137
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    clear sunny skies with hottest temps, highest humidity and zero winds nor waves here on the East.
    as awaited we have a fantastic summer hot weekend and it will stay exactly that way.
    few ocassional very short showers/sprinkling at very isolated areas happened, nothing worth to write about.

    the Disturbance from the far East passed us as awaited far to our North without any effects.
    it also stays well north of the Bahamas and will turn towards NNW and then NW'wards,
    running parallel to the US-East Shores, well out at Sea between the Mainland and Bermuda.
    it should become a name very soon as cnditions for a quick development are still in favor of the Storm,
    but it will not become any danger for any Land/Island.

    right now we have the next wave leaving the african West Shores touchng down on Atlantic waters.
    no powers to spot there, yet.
    positioning ESE of the Cape Verde's could make it a westward runner, but the final real positioning of a center can vary a lot ones it is completely over Sea and brings itself on a Path.
    for most part of the Highway conditions are against a Storm.
    it has only the first 30-40hrs to become a power machine, as conditions onthe farest East are fine for Storm Development at this moment, but the mid Third of the Highway has already closed the gap opened by the last Disturbance, lower and mid Atmosphere show already a thick Saharan Dry Air Layer again out there.
    what ever comes up til mid next week, it has to develop far east quickly up to powers to survive that mid third of the distance, only the last 800 miles towards the Islands would then allow again to gain forces, so we look well secured for a while.
    dangerous would be disturbance coming up on the southern Lane, staring well south of the Cape Verde Islands,
    there the air is nicely moistured on all levels, windshear low, waters hot,
    but at this moment none of the formations over the African Continent look like they would point for a Southern approach of the Highway.

    so long, enjoy perfect Hot Summer Island Conditions.
    the bigest danger for our Health is DeHydration, a serious thing,
    so keep those sweet greenies cold and ready, they are life safers so to speak.

    Mike

  12. #138
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    As long there is nothing bothering me next weekend when we are staying in Las Galeras, all is good.

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  14. #139
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    Quote Originally Posted by caribmike View Post
    As long there is nothing bothering me next weekend when we are staying in Las Galeras, all is good.
    if it runs on slow forward sped to become a big one you can spend the weekend in Las Galeras, as it will hit shortly afterwards, so all is perfectly fine for your weekend plans, Mike.

    it maged the firstquarter of the highway run and does not look any bad at all.
    conditions should stay on the favorable side to develop a Storm mid Highway after mid-week.
    on the long range Directions outlook I would bring it on a pass very close to the northernmost Islands.
    it is at the moment controlling a much too wide area to form a powerful storm out of it,
    the conditions will not allow the time to do that, and the Disturbance seems to know that,
    as it is already organizing powers on smaller sized areas.
    heavy Thunderstorm activity get's concentrating on the SW Qyadrant of the wide area
    and the strongest and by now best organized powers concentrate East close to the Center,
    where i would expect that a Storm can form, which then would carry the heavy stuff on it's NE and Eastern side from a Center.
    unless that changes, all looks good, as such will bring by my very questinable long range look on things
    a strong TS on a close Pass NE of the northernmost Islands next weekend,
    with the heavy powers concentrating on the NE and E of the Center, the side away from the Center.
    at the half way point dry air could become a slow down factor, it has 48hrs to get the powers to fight later coming dry air.
    windshear looks good for a Storm at this moment, the long range outlook has to be taken for no more than 2 days in advance on that. right now on the 2nd half of the Highway windshear would be strong for a Storm wandering towards the northern islands, but that factor can change any time and changes quiet often all the time,
    we will count that in from wednesday or thursday on.

    til now nothing lokks like messing up the next weekend.
    for now we stay on our hot sunny humid calm wind low waves action conditions

    Mike

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  16. #140
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    I read in the news that there were some pretty bad floodings in Sierra Leone, Africa. Does that have anything to do with the tropical wave that just came out Africa a couple of days ago and is now on the atlantic ocean with some possibilities of formation??

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