Tropical Storm Lili could be coming

Let's hope it will track to the south of the DR as Isidore did.
You do not need any more problems with electricity as I have read.

F---,
I'm planning on taking a trip to DR on Wed.

The gods are against me!
LOL

The 5pm report shows that Tropical Depression #13 is still moving west toward the Caribbean with winds of approximately 35mph. The projections presently indicate that the south coast can expect heavy rain by Wednesday.

TD #13 may be upgraded to a Tropical Storm tomorrow, but important to be aware that a TS is winds of 40 mph or more, so that rain and flooding usually more likely than wind damage. The people that really suffer in these storms are the Dominicans living in casitas on hillsides. Not uncommon to have the casitas slide down the hill due to the rain.

Important to keep watching; hurricanes seem to have a life of their own and don't pay any attention to the projections.

jdiaz, you shouldn't have any trouble. You indicated in another thread that you were going to the north coast. If the storm stays in the Caribbean as forecast, planes should have no difficulty getting to POP airport.

Strike Prediction

NOAA's strike probability map is at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT13/AL1302P.GIF

Let's keep an eye on this one. Perhaps the worst mistake of the Fernandez administration, other than agreeing to give up power in a democratic transfer, was hoping for the best and not planning for the worst with Hurricane Georges.

Lili now a named storm.

As of 2pm EST today, Tropical Storm Lili with winds of 60 mph was about 70 miles from the Windward Islands (lower Lesser Antilles). It will move through the islands tonight and enter the Caribbean by tomorrow. The present track is WNW, forward speed of 20 mph. Current projections by the National Hurricane Center show the storm making landfall on the south coast of Haiti early Thursday morning. Although the present track means that Santo Domingo and the east end of the island will avoid most of the wind. The entire south coast can expect rain, possibly heavy, on Wednesday, if not before. Even the north coast may experience clouds and rain, though little if any additional wind.

Remember, at this point all we have are an actual position and a projection based on assumptions re future course taken by the storm and speed of movement. These assumptions will be updated every few hours as more information is gathered about the actual development and travel of the storm.

The 5pm EST report indicates that Lili is continuing to follow a W-WNW track. It is expected there will be some reduction in its 20mph travel speed, and some increase in windspeed from the present 60mph. It is further expected that Lili will become a hurricane (75+mph) when in the Caribbean.

The projections still show the eye passing over the western end of Haiti sometime on Wed.

Ken:
This should be good news for jdiaz, who is heading to DR on Wednesday,
Also which tracking site are you using I have looked at a number and all are a little, not much different.
Lets hope it continues to follow that tracking and perhaps a little more to the south and west would be even better.

Remember, at this point all we have are an actual position and a projection based on assumptions re future course taken by the storm and speed of movement.

Click to expand...

What does that mean? Me no understand...Unless you mean, meteorology just sucks?

Is that some sort of English dialect? I didn't understand either. For what I've seen in those websites it's not gonna hit the island but it's gonna rain... How's that for predictions?

As of 11pm.

New update

Someone hold me.

Lili

It looks like Lili will take a course just south of the Barahona peninsula converting into a catorgory 1 Hurricane. It appears inevitable that most of Southern Hispa?iola will experience heavy rain. If you superimpose the current storm over the Barahona peninsula you can see that most of the island will be effected in some way, considering the size of it. Catorgory 1 hurricane gusts usually blow over plantain and banana trees which is a shame as Barahona is one of the most productive areas in the country. Another great threat to the region is the flooding of the Yaque del Sur river which completely submerged several towns last hurricane.

What didn't you understand, Jane J. and Pib?

Ken said:

Remember, at this point all we have are an actual position and a projection based on assumptions re future course taken by the storm and speed of movement. These assumptions will be updated every few hours as more information is gathered about the actual development and travel of the storm.

Click to expand...

Sorry that you didn't understand this, Jane J. and Pib. No, it isn't "some sort of English dialect" and neither am I saying that "meteorology just sucks."

Unlike when forecasting rain, snow and sunshine, the meteorologists responsible for hurricane forecasting are expected to identify the area that will be most affected by the approaching storm. It's possible, for example, to evacuate a portion of the Gulf coast, but not the entire Gulf coast. So it is very important to know in advance if the eye will pass over New Orleans and some place in Florida. And since planning can't wait until the last minute, projections are given showing the likely target of the storm several days in advance of its arrival.

But tropical storms/hurricanes don't follow a marked route nor a predetermined timetable. They speed up, slow down, zig and zag. Which is why the National Hurricane center keeps a close eye on the storm, reporting every few hours its then force, travel speed and location, and revising its projections based on this new information.

In the case of Lili, for example, the direction of travel has varied from West to WestNorthwest. The longer it goes west, the less chance there is it will hit the DR. The more it goes WNW, or, especially, NW, the more likely it is that it will. So the meteorologists keep monitoring the storm and revising their projections. Not an exact science, but not one that "sucks", either.

Pib said:

For what I've seen in those websites it's not gonna hit the island but it's gonna rain... How's that for predictions?

Click to expand...

If that is the information that you are getting, Pib, then you are using the wrong websites for your weather information. Since all the information on hurricanes reported by all of the weather sources comes from the National Hurricane Center, that is the best website to use. They have been projecting for a couple of days that the storm would hit the island. Go to http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ and click on "advisory" for the storm you are interested in (Lili in this case). That will tell you in text form the latest known location of the storm, its wind speed, and its direction and travel speed. At the top of the page you will see "graphics" for storm of interest (Lili). Click on "graphics". On the new page, click on top graphic on left of page to get a blownup version of the chart showing location, projected course, and anticipated time that eye will reach different points. The graphic also shows the likely area to be affected by wind and/or rain from the storm.

These reports are always updated at approximately 5am, 11am, 5pm and 11pm. Additionally, when a storm is near land, supplementary updates are issued at least midway between the above times.

There are a lot of websites reporting hurricanes, but all, repeat all, get their info from the National Hurricane Center.