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Thread: Is the Peso going to go up or down? Any Insight?

  1. #1
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    Default Is the Peso going to go up or down? Any Insight?

    I'am considering a major purchase and need to know if I should buy now or wait for the Peso to go back up to 35-1US...I will be chaneging US Dollars.

  2. #2
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    Default Jeez, if I knew for certain I would

    be a billionaire...

    The government has taken RD$30 billion out of circulation (or is trying to) and that takes money off the streets for buying dollars. The government is also increasing taxes and creating a recession, which also lowers pressure in dollars.

    I think it will go a little lower..but I don't change that much money.

    HB

  3. #3
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    Default should go down a bit in the next couple of weeks

    The Pan Am games brought in a quick supply of dollars. Once the games are over in the next couple of days, that supply will be diminish with the normal foreign settlements. Hipolito will do the rest and I would be surprised to see the dollar trading at less than 33 to 34 pesos within 3 to 4 weeks. Just my guess...

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    Default My opinion...

    is that neither the peso nor any other banana republic currency can "trend upwards" against the dollar. There can be a knee-jerk, temporary, reaction, though, because of IMF/governmental support, or whatever.

    My guess is that such a reaction might take the rate at high as 28 to 1.

    At the other extreme, 41 to 1 might be a good number for the short to intermediate term (up to 6 months). That is because it has traded there before and because of a highly publicized prediction (by the Economist) of that level by the end of next year. Such predictions often become both a temporary ceiling, but an ultimate target.

    In other words, I expect the peso to hover in the mid-30's for awhile, but to go decisively through 41 before the end of next year (maybe well before).

    If you must convert currency, maybe you should do it one third at a time to hedge against getting a disastrous rate.

    There are no guarantees - just my thoughts.

  5. #5
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    Default Re: My opinion...

    Originally posted by andy a
    If you must convert currency, maybe you should do it one third at a time to hedge against getting a disastrous rate.

    There are no guarantees - just my thoughts.
    Andy, very wise advice to give. Reminds me of averaging in to the stock market

    Regards,
    Escott

  6. #6
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    Lightbulb "Is the peso going to go up or down?"

    "YES!",It is!
    For $5000 US Dollars,I will give you a written notarized statement telling you which direction the peso will go,as of any future date you select.If I am right,I keep the money,if I am wrong,I will give you all your money back!!!How is that for a guarentee????

    If anyone else is interested in the same gaurantee,I will make you the same offer! If you are only wanting to change a small amount of dollars,I will reduce my fee accordingly!
    !

    Cris Colon
    Last edited by Criss Colon; 08-16-2003 at 10:41 AM.

  7. #7
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    Default Thanks for the support, Escott.

    I think the "in thirds" idea is good for most investments, when possible. Some of the legendary speculators of the early 1900's (Gann and Livermore, especially, I think) suggested this.

    It's also known that trend following trading programs are only profitable about one third of the time, depending upon long trends to make their money. That is true even with computer generated trading decisions.

    We tend to "find" what we're looking for - such as the "perfect" buying opportunity. The thirds rule helps to enforce discipline.

  8. #8
    Grande Pollo en Boca Chica
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    Talking I Think you are right!

    Is the Peso going to go up or down? Any Insight?

    Yes. It is going to go up and down.

    Actually upon reflection so is the US, CDN$, Stg. Euro. And the yen, too.

    In fact often DURING the day.

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    Wink I guess I am not going to have to eat my words this time...

    Hmmmmm...

  10. #10
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    Default Arturo.........you were right!

    I held off on my purchase and waited for 35 to 1..that happend on Friday.............Thanks for the Insight

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