Is the Peso going to go up or down? Any Insight?

Gringo

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Jan 1, 2002
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I'am considering a major purchase and need to know if I should buy now or wait for the Peso to go back up to 35-1US...I will be chaneging US Dollars.
 

Hillbilly

Moderator
Jan 1, 2002
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Jeez, if I knew for certain I would

be a billionaire...

The government has taken RD$30 billion out of circulation (or is trying to) and that takes money off the streets for buying dollars. The government is also increasing taxes and creating a recession, which also lowers pressure in dollars.

I think it will go a little lower..but I don't change that much money.

HB
 

arturo

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Mar 14, 2002
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should go down a bit in the next couple of weeks

The Pan Am games brought in a quick supply of dollars. Once the games are over in the next couple of days, that supply will be diminish with the normal foreign settlements. Hipolito will do the rest and I would be surprised to see the dollar trading at less than 33 to 34 pesos within 3 to 4 weeks. Just my guess...
 

andy a

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Feb 23, 2002
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My opinion...

is that neither the peso nor any other banana republic currency can "trend upwards" against the dollar. There can be a knee-jerk, temporary, reaction, though, because of IMF/governmental support, or whatever.

My guess is that such a reaction might take the rate at high as 28 to 1.

At the other extreme, 41 to 1 might be a good number for the short to intermediate term (up to 6 months). That is because it has traded there before and because of a highly publicized prediction (by the Economist) of that level by the end of next year. Such predictions often become both a temporary ceiling, but an ultimate target.

In other words, I expect the peso to hover in the mid-30's for awhile, but to go decisively through 41 before the end of next year (maybe well before).

If you must convert currency, maybe you should do it one third at a time to hedge against getting a disastrous rate.

There are no guarantees - just my thoughts.
 

Escott

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Jan 14, 2002
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Re: My opinion...

andy a said:
If you must convert currency, maybe you should do it one third at a time to hedge against getting a disastrous rate.

There are no guarantees - just my thoughts.
Andy, very wise advice to give. Reminds me of averaging in to the stock market:)

Regards,
Escott
 

Criss Colon

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Jan 2, 2002
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"Is the peso going to go up or down?"

"YES!",It is!
For $5000 US Dollars,I will give you a written notarized statement telling you which direction the peso will go,as of any future date you select.If I am right,I keep the money,if I am wrong,I will give you all your money back!!!How is that for a guarentee????

If anyone else is interested in the same gaurantee,I will make you the same offer! If you are only wanting to change a small amount of dollars,I will reduce my fee accordingly!
!

Cris Colon
 
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andy a

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Feb 23, 2002
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Thanks for the support, Escott.

I think the "in thirds" idea is good for most investments, when possible. Some of the legendary speculators of the early 1900's (Gann and Livermore, especially, I think) suggested this.

It's also known that trend following trading programs are only profitable about one third of the time, depending upon long trends to make their money. That is true even with computer generated trading decisions.

We tend to "find" what we're looking for - such as the "perfect" buying opportunity. The thirds rule helps to enforce discipline.
 

ricktoronto

Grande Pollo en Boca Chica
Jan 9, 2002
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I Think you are right!

Is the Peso going to go up or down? Any Insight?

Yes. It is going to go up and down.

Actually upon reflection so is the US, CDN$, Stg. Euro. And the yen, too.

In fact often DURING the day.
 

Gringo

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Jan 1, 2002
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Arturo.........you were right!

I held off on my purchase and waited for 35 to 1..that happend on Friday.............Thanks for the Insight
 

calamardoazul

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Jul 29, 2003
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Peso down ....dollar UP

My bet would be against the peso....I?m sorry peso holders ....we are going to have a long agony.....dollar would be the safer way to keep your wealth...I?m sorry....

Things could change as soon the political panorama clarifies.....:chinese: :dead: :eek:
 

maxim

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Jul 16, 2003
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Now is a good time to invert. With the tourist high season soon upon us, Banco Central continuing to squeeze the money supply and the IMF funds coming, these factors are sure to add value to the peso.
 

calamardoazul

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Jul 29, 2003
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Same old, same old

I've been hearing the kind of maxim's commentaries since last year...

The goverment is having the same chit-chat, that everything is going to be all right.

1- They drained bank central's vaults selling dollars trying to stop the collasing of peso....and we simply get no dollars reserves and the peso collapsed.....

2- Tourism is having a peak this year and still the dollar is going up....

3- FTZ zones have been exporting a lot and have been "rewarded" with the infamous 5% tax (Are going to keep FTZ exporting after that?), and still the peso goes down....

4- The Banco Central has already "drained " RD$20,000,000,000.00 from the public and peso is still going down....

5- The president decreed a 2% tax on all imports and peso is still going down....

6- They created a .75% tax on checks processed by la Camara de Compensacion and peso is still down....

7- They have raised the active interest rate to historics higts and peso is still going down......

8- Dominicans have deposited US$1,300 millions dollars in foreign banks during 2002 in spite of the raising of interest rates....

So what else the IMF is going to do, magic?.......





:mad: :angry: :angry: :angry: :mad: :angry: :mad: :angry: ::bandit:
 
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ricktoronto

Grande Pollo en Boca Chica
Jan 9, 2002
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Not Really

maxim said:
Now is a good time to invert. With the tourist high season soon upon us, Banco Central continuing to squeeze the money supply and the IMF funds coming, these factors are sure to add value to the peso.

The high season just ended or will do in 3 days, then it is a shoulder or trough until after mid-November until Xmas.

And the 33:1 rate I got August 5th is now nearly 35:1 at the cambios, so the Summer Holidays high season didn't help much, nor did the attempt to reduce pesos in circulation with the savings certificate issues nor did the PanAm games.

It's worth what it's worth , e.g. what people will trade US$ for it in what quantities. Prognosticators thinking 41:1 may be right and this year.
 

Larry

Gold
Mar 22, 2002
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rate of inflation

I am more interested in how the inflation rate in the DR is going to react to the peso if it continues to drop. I have absolutely nothing in pesos and all my money is USD. The peso can go to 50 to 1 but if prices inflate proportionately It wont make any difference to me.
Larry
 

hansbert

*** Sin Bin ***
Mar 1, 2002
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As long as confidence in the economy is not reestablished the Peso will not go up

Although within the next few days (as the government makes the people believe) the stand-by agreement with the IMF will be signed and thereafter fresh USD will enter as long as confidence of the investors in the DR economy is not reestablished there will always be a great demand for the US currency and USDs will continue to leave the country. Result: For the time being the Peso will not significantly go up. It needs some time to regain confidence in the DR economy if ever !
 

calamardoazul

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Jul 29, 2003
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Re: rate of inflation

Larry (ILoveDR) said:
I am more interested in how the inflation rate in the DR is going to react to the peso if it continues to drop. I have absolutely nothing in pesos and all my money is USD. The peso can go to 50 to 1 but if prices inflate proportionately It wont make any difference to me.


Larry


Usually, there is a lag between devaluation and inflation, that?s why some prices don?t ajust automatically e.g wages, salaries, those form part of cost of production and commercialization , in other cases, bussiness have to reduce their profits because otherwise would suffer great loss of market (The quantities sold would decrease more than the increment of price) , many companies have increased the price of their products only a fraction of the devaluation rate.... many staples (yuca, platano, batata,yautia)don?t increase their prices at the same rate of devaluation, internal freigths don?t increase at the same rate of devaluation either....
Even many houses and properties can?t be marketed at prices ajusted by devaluation, simply because otherwise anyone would buy them..that?s why I think would be better keeping your money in US$..:paranoid: :devious:
 

Snuffy

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May 3, 2002
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Saturday...31.5 to 1.

I to am trying to make a substantial purchase and have been waiting for right time. I am interested in buying an SUV but have not been able to find many on the road these days and I will not buy from a dealership at their high profit prices.

I did not see that coming...people not willing to sell their vehicles because of high price of buying a new one.

We have been patiently waiting for the right time...but now I am thinking that if that time does not come soon...we will just buy an inexpensive car and drive that until I find a decent vehicle here at a respectable price. Is that possible? hehe.

I say short term the dollar continues to get cheaper....next year it goes higher.

Best of luck to all.
 

hansbert

*** Sin Bin ***
Mar 1, 2002
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Now upon signing of the agreement with the IMF let us wait and see !

Practically all well known economists predicted upon signing of the IMF agreement a gradual decrease of the USD exchange rate.
Let us wait and see if these forecasts are real !
 

Ken

Platinum
Jan 1, 2002
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Over the last several days, in Sosua, there has been a gradual reduction in the value of the dollar.