Fabian has left, Henri wasn't close, but now

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Hillbilly

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We have Isabel, a real lady and already a Cat 1 Hurricane....

For latest NOAA estimates: http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories/s2053.htm

Might get interesting...What say XR?? Is there any shear?

Will Isabel do what Fabian was not capable of? Will Henri mess up the East Coast?

Stay tuned for latest updates. And now, a word from our sponsor.....


"Ladies, if your whites are not white............"


HB....
 

XanaduRanch

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Hillbilly

I will repost here what I posted in the other thread about Isabel. Remeber, I forecast Fabian to hit Bermuda a week ago too... that's my job for more than 30 years ...

Watch Out for Isabel

Bad news as of this morning. All models indicate a strengthening rather than weakening of the high pressure area north of Isabel. This has in fact already begun. It is even expected to build westward over time forcing Isabel onto a direct westward track in a couple of days. This is at the same time it's roughly at the same latitude as the north coast of the Dominican Republic with wind speeds of around 120mph.

In fact the track extrapolations, which have been so far excellent this year would place it on a beeline for Xanadu. The good news is that this is still about six to seven days away.

Guess you have to worry sometimes about getting what you wish for!
Hey! But the ViKINGS beat the stupid ole Packers 30-25 at Lambeau this afternoon. Ha ha ha! Go Vikes!

Tom (aka XR)
 
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Chris

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HB, I have this strange feeling that this fat lady might just sing this time around. Possibly because of the sheer fury that the Vikings actually managed to slip in a beating to the Packers. ;)
 

Hillbilly

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Because this is Isabel!!!!!

Yeah XR, I saw TD 14 on the Tropical Atlantic Satellite. First time in a long time that there were two well defined areas, that far away.

The reason forthis thread is that Isabel is our worry now and it is headed much further to the South than our buddy Fabian. I am sure it will pass to the North, but the effects will be felt...

Am I close on this XR??

HB

I just love these pictures! http://www.weather.com/maps/news/atlstorm13/tropicalatlanticsatellite_large.html
 
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XanaduRanch

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Unfortunately, HB, I have no reason to believe the storm will do anything other than continue west or even veer a bit west-southwest as it approcahes.

Let me answer by saying that I just started (within the last hour) instructing the help here on preparations for the possibility of 75-100+ mph winds here at Xanadu as early as Monday morning, depending on the distance offshore. Hopefully all that work will be for nothing. But I can't risk hoping for a miracle any longer.

Seven days and counting ...

Tom (aka XR)
 

Hillbilly

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that would be a first

Generally speaking, hurricanes go West Northwest, don't they? Or is there something holding this one down. It is already pretty far North, and in another day it should be above 20? N. and away from us. I would imagine heavy surf and rains with some stiff breezes..

Fingers crossed.

HB
 

XanaduRanch

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Eventually. But do not make the mistake of confusing this with Fabian. In fact there is a much better likelihood of the turning a bit southward once past thee leewards. And I have been closing watching the sat photos every half hour for the last four or five hours. It is not moving northward at the moment at all. Just west. Very bad for me here. You'll just get some good rains HB with the mountains in between. I have nothing but naked ocean front there three miles out.
 

Andy B

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Located here in Las Galeras out at the tip of the Samana Peninsula puts us in a very vunerable position for this one. Having been through a number of hurricanes in Florida and tracking them for as long as I can remember, I've got the gardeners coming tommorrow to trim all the palms WAY back, cut all the cocos and also seriously trim our big rubber tree behind the restaurant. This one's on it's way, folks.

In '96 Nicole and I had already scheduled a flight out the day hurricane Hortense hit (September 10) and tore up Las Galeras including the roof on our restaurant and some of the cabanas. Even as some early squalls passed the day before, the locals refused to believe a hurricane was coming. "Sixty-five years they said, it's been sixty-five years since the last one. It won't come here." We were back from Florida in 3 weeks (instead of our planned three months stay) with a pocket full of money to rebuild.

Then in September '98 hurricane Georges passed on the southside of the island and despite what some may say about leaves not being rustled on the north coast, here in Las Galeras (and Samana) we had hurricane force winds for several hours with two 5 minute squalls that the wind exceeded 125mph (by my estimate). I was in our open-air restaurant (hiding behind the concrete bar) during the second squall and watched parts of the roof fly off. We were lucky. We only lost about $500usd worth of the big, asbestos roof shingles on the restaurant roof. Suprisingly the roof structure held. I expected it to fly away, too.

What I was really worried about during Georges was my 40' sportfisherman that was hauled out of the water at that time in the little boatyard in Samana. We lashed it down to the rail car beneath it and I drilled 1" holes in the bottom to allow it to fill up with water and not try to float off the car should the water rise that far. The guys at the yard were really nice including trimming the nearby big trees and cutting down a huge Royal palm growing right by the haulout rail. I even plywooded up all the salon windows and big cockpit doors expecting the worst. Other than some leaves in the cockpit, the boat came through without a scratch.

So tommorrow we trim trees and I'll buy a few sheets of plywood and cover the aluminum French windows in the new apartments and like Tom (XR), hope like hell all my preparations will have been in vain (but I don't think so).
 
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