Tropical Depression 19 is reported to be very near tropical storm strength this evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/hr) with higher gusts. The depression is likely to strengthen into a tropical storm tonight or Wednesday. It is not expected to be a threat to the Dominican Republic at this time.
At 5 PM AST the center was located near latitude 11.2 north and longitude 42.3 west or about 1200 miles (1930 km) east of the Windward Islands. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/hr) and this general motion is expected to continue over the next 24 hours. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
Later in the forecast period the intensity will be strongly dependent on location. If the system is farther north than forecast the shear will likely be stronger resulting in a weaker system. If the tropical cyclone moves along a more southerly track than expected it should experience less shear and probably get stronger.
It is of interest to note that since 1900 there have been only 7 hurricanes to the east of the Lesser Antilles ... in the deep tropical Atlantic ... during the month of October.
Tom (aka XR)
At 5 PM AST the center was located near latitude 11.2 north and longitude 42.3 west or about 1200 miles (1930 km) east of the Windward Islands. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/hr) and this general motion is expected to continue over the next 24 hours. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
Later in the forecast period the intensity will be strongly dependent on location. If the system is farther north than forecast the shear will likely be stronger resulting in a weaker system. If the tropical cyclone moves along a more southerly track than expected it should experience less shear and probably get stronger.
It is of interest to note that since 1900 there have been only 7 hurricanes to the east of the Lesser Antilles ... in the deep tropical Atlantic ... during the month of October.
Tom (aka XR)
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