Tropical Storm Odette: It's not the end!

Q

quaqualita

Member
Feb 4, 2002
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It's not the end!

yes, I know, officially there are not supposed to be tropical storms after Nov. 30th, but here you go...


SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
715 AM EST THU DEC 4 2003

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM MAY BE FORMING ABOUT 325 MILES SOUTH
OF KINGSTON JAMAICA. EVEN IF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT BECOME A TROPICAL
CYCLONE...IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST
ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH AND WILL LIKELY BRING HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY
WINDS OVER JAMAICA...EASTERN CUBA... HISPANIOLA... SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND THE TURK AND CAICOS ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
ALL INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
DISTURBANCE AND BE READY TO TAKE QUICK ACTION...IF NECESSARY. A
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.

... oh man.. I'm getting tired of all this rain.

quaqualita
 
Q

quaqualita

Member
Feb 4, 2002
312
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Tropical Depression Twenty Forecast/Advisory Number 1

Off-season tropical depression forms in the Caribbean. SeaSatellite data and surface observations indicate that the area of disturbed weather in the Caribbean Sea has developed organized convection with banding features and appears to have a closed surface circulation. Therefore the system has been classified as a tropical depression.
Because the cyclone is in its formative stage the initial motion
is highly uncertain. The best estimate is 025/09.

At 10 am EST the government of the Dominican Republic
has issued a tropical storm watch for the Dominican Republic west
of Santo Domingo.

Tropical depression center located near 13.3n 76.3w
present movement toward the north-northeast at 10 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph/hr with higher gusts. The depression may become a tropical storm later today.
 
X

XanaduRanch

*** Sin Bin ***
Sep 15, 2002
2,493
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This is great you guys! You're doing all my work for me. Thanks a bundle Quaqualita & Ken.

The rain we're getting now is part of this system. It's very large. We've had 1.41" here today so far. The ground is so saturated there's nowhere for it to go. So I am worried for lowlying parts of the country. ANY more rain will cause big problems, and from the looks and speed of this thing we could easily see 5-6" of rain or more in a few days in some areas.

Tom (aka XR)
 
X

XanaduRanch

*** Sin Bin ***
Sep 15, 2002
2,493
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Tropical Storm Odette

TROPICAL STORM ODETTE IS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 75.6W AT 04/2100 UTC MOVING NE NEAR 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 KT GUSTING TO 40 KT WITH AN ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1003 MB. SEE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE SYSTEM HAS GOOD BANDING FEATURES AND THREATENS HISPANIOLA WITH FUTURE FLASH FLOODING. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS A RELATIVELY RARE EVENT FOR THE BASIN. THE LAST TROPICAL CYCLONE TO FORM IN DECEMBER ANYWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN WAS LILI OF 1984. ODETTE IS THE FIRST STORM ON RECORD TO FORM IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN DECEMBER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 71W-78W.

The intensity forecast calls for strengthening for 12-24 hr...followed by weakening due to increased shear...movement over Hispaniola...and extratropical transition. Odette should be extratropical by 48 hr and absorbed into the Atlantic low by 72 hr.

Odette should bring very heavy rains and mud slides to Hispaniola ... especially over the mountains of Haiti in areas where the soil is already bare and defoliated.

Tom (aka XR)
 
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PJT

Silver
Jan 8, 2002
3,564
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Thanks XR for the heads up on Odette. I read the Dec. 4, 10 pm alert from the National Hurricane Center for the island. The folks west of Santo Domingo do have some concern. The rainfall amounts are scary, 5-10 inches, and more in the mountains. I would suggest anyone planning to travel west and to the mountains this Friday and beyond to hold-off, go to plan B. Anyone already in the areas find yourself safe place and hunker down. Regards, PJT



Link: www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml
 
Q

quaqualita

Member
Feb 4, 2002
312
13
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Tropical Storm Warning

Hurricane hunters reached Odette this morning and found a well-
organized tropical storm.

At 10 am the government of the Dominican Republic has
extended the Tropical Storm Warning now in effect
for the Dominican Republic from Isla Saona westward.

Tropical Storm Odette is at the moment located near latitude 14.2 north...longitude 74.2 west or about
470 km...southwest of the south coast of the Dominican Republic and is moving toward the east-northeast near 7 km/hr.
This motion will bring Odette near the Dominican Northcoast, which is allready soked and wet in about 30 to 36 hrs from now (Saturday afternoon).

Odette's winds have increased to near 50 mph...85
km/hr...with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible before
the center reaches the high terrain of Hispaniola.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 280 km from the center, Rainbands associated with Odette are already spreading across Hispaniola since yesterday.

Get towels and mops ready.

quaqualita
 
Jan

Jan

Bronze
Jan 3, 2002
1,812
485
83
64
Santo Domingo Este
www.colonialzone-dr.com
Dumb storm question..

Is this storm going to be really bad in Zona Colonial? Friends are telling me to go to their house to ride it out but I'd really rather stay home. The problem is that I can't walk very well right now and if theres a problem I may not be able to do anything about it.
Sorry if this is a dumb question but I can't decide on my own and I don't understand all that wind speed and longitude and latitude crap....
 
K

Ken

Platinum
Jan 1, 2002
13,884
495
83
At this point it doesn't appear that you are in great danger in the Colonial Zone. The present forecast shows the storm making landfall west of Baharona. You can expect rain and some wind based on present forecast but I wouldn't anticipate that the Colonial Zone will be leveled.

If you should pass over Sosua, be sure to wave.
 
Jan

Jan

Bronze
Jan 3, 2002
1,812
485
83
64
Santo Domingo Este
www.colonialzone-dr.com
Awh. Ken honey...
Thankks much. I don't want to go anywhere. Takes me 5 minuutes just to get down my stairs right now. Just don't want to be stuck in a storm. Me not being able to walk towning my blind dog behind me.
Bless your little heart..
 
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PJT

Silver
Jan 8, 2002
3,564
300
83
Jan, there is no such thing as a dumb question. It is dumber not to ask when there is a need. A concern is we would like to know where you are and what is your relation to the Colonial Zone in order to better inform and provide some good advice to you. The storm is coming in our direction, R.D. and Haiti. The tropical storm advisory from the U.S. National Hurricane Center is in effect for the area west of Isla Saona (La Romana). A lot of rain is expected, 8-12 inches.

If you are in the storm's path and in a low lying area that normally floods in heavy showers you have a need to seek higher ground. Because of your walking problem you should think to take up your friends offer. Regards, PJT

Link: www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml
 
K

Ken

Platinum
Jan 1, 2002
13,884
495
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You are right, wud. He is growing, no doubt about it, but not taller. Bigger around. That's not the rain.
 
S

sable227

New member
Aug 11, 2003
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Ok everyone. Stock up on the fuel for the plantas, make sure you have whatever liquid refreshment you desire available, and for those with no plantas or inversores a lot of candles.

Everyone take care these next few days. I have been watching the Weather Channel and it looks like this will hit sometime in the morning.
 
L

Larry

Gold
Mar 22, 2002
3,513
2
0
Re: Oh Lord,

Escott said:
Please get this rain over with! It has rained more in the last month than it has in the last year and a half. I think I have grown 2 inches from being watered so much.

I return to NY today for 9 days. It is Snowing in NY this weekend. One thing about the rain in the DR is that you don't have to shovel it.

Amen
Click to expand...

Oh boy Scott, you have great timing! They are now projecting that we will get 12 to 22 inches of the white stuff in the Catskills. You are going to wish you were in sosua looking out at the rain from Rockys. Dont worry buddy, I have nothing to do tomorrow and would be glad to come over and shovel you out.

Larry
 
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Ken

Platinum
Jan 1, 2002
13,884
495
83
According to the 4pm report, the forward speed of Odette has increased. It is now expected to pass over eastern Haiti/western DR on Saturday morning. Windspeed still 50, but some strengthening possible, though wind speeds will drop as soon as it makes landfall.

The heaviest rainfall expected in the path of the storm, meaning eastern Haiti/western Dominican Republic.

To see the expected track of the storm, go to http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT20/refresh/AL2003W+GIF/052048W.gif
 
Q

quaqualita

Member
Feb 4, 2002
312
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the 11pm update

There has been no big change in the structure of Odette during the past several hours. The storm continues to generate bursts of convection near and northeast of the center.
At 10 PM the center of Tropical Storm Odette was
located about 175 miles south-southwest of the south
coast of the Dominican Republic.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph with higher
gusts. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 145 miles from the center. These winds will reach the south coast of
Hispaniola early Saturday since Odette is moving toward the northeast near 10 mph.
After making landfall on the southcoast Odette will continue her path towards the northcoast and probably loose some strength.
Sosua/Cabarete will feel the winds from tomorrow afternoon on, heavy rains will probably start earlier.

The greatest threat from Odette at this time is that of heavy rains
over Hispaniola and I agree, we had really enough rain allready in the last days/weeks.
 
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