Human Capital Shuffling Plan

NALs

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Jan 20, 2003
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Traditionally, I am a person that like to debate about anything, especially on boards such as this one. Since it's been a while since I have posted anything on DR1 due to the lack of interesting debates, here I will try to start something.

Human Capital Shuffling Plan

The Human Capital Shuffling Plan is an idea that has come into my mind in the past year or so. I started when I asked myself a simple question, how can the Dominican Republic go from third world to first world in a "quick" time period (ideally 10 year span)? I came up with what I call the Human Capital Shuffling Plan. This is what it is ...

Since industrialized nations have an overabundance of well educated peoples and developing nations have an overabundance of poor uneducated people I decided to think of a way that the two can "meet" in order to keep the first world in first world status and bring the third world up to first world status as well. Consider the Dominican Republic for example. If the government was to invite the leaders of the United States, Canada, Spain, France, Italy, United Kingdom, Ireland, Sweden, Finland, Norway, Denmark, Germany, Japan, China, United Arab Emirates, and Israel to come to a meeting in the Dominican Republic. The goal of the meeting is to convince the leaders of those nations to grant permanent visas to 300,000 dominicans. Assuming that 40% of the 8 million dominicans are wealthy and/or middle class, that would leave 60% or 4,800,000 to be classified as economically deprived dominicans (ie. poor people). If every single 4.8 million poor dominican person is to be granted a visa to one of the 16 industrialized nations I mentioned above, that would mean that each industrialize nation would only have to accept a mere 300,000 dominicans each. Considering how positive the dominican expat community has been in New York City where an estimated 89% of small grocery stores and many more small businesses are owned or managed by dominican immigrants, the acceptance of these mere 300,000 dominicans would have a high possibility of influxing those "rich" countries with highly entrepreneural peoples. That would mean a fresh jolt of ideas into their economies, which would mean more production, etc. etc. etc. This is all theoretically speaking, but that is how all business deals are made, on a theoretical note.

Lets say that the nations fell for it and they decided to give the visas to the 300,000 dominicans. Now there will be at least 300,000 dominicans living in at least 16 industrialized nations all over the world. The total population of the country would go in a matter of months from around 8 million to just 3.2 million. Those 3.2 million would constitute of middle class and wealthy dominicans (ie. the most economically productive people in the country). Under these conditions, the Dominican Republic would be considered as a first world nation since hardly any poor person would be left in the country. Then, assuming that the country has the ability to pick up some heavy loans, the government can try to "fix up" the infraestructure of the country. Build appropriate super highways, fix the pot holed ones, get rid of all the shacks and slums and grant those property left behind by the now expatriated poor dominicans to developers. Those developers would take areas like Capotillo (which under this plan would be absolutely desolate since everybody there is very poor) and the area can be developed with proper amenities for middle and upper income peoples.

Then lets say the country has "spiffed" itself up, the border with Haiti will have to be less porous which means the building of a wall where the border lies with openings at the "checkpoints" of entry (similar to the wall being built in Israel except that this wall would be a legitimate border barrier). Then the country or government would have to invite the CEOs of the multinational corporations from the US, Europe, and Asia to Santo Domingo. Offer them an unbeatable deal to relocate their jobs to the DR, since many of the high paying jobs are leaving the US anyways. Those corporations can move their headquarters or regional offices to the DR with the guarantee of reliable electricity, water, telecommunications, low taxes, and a beautiful and safe ambiance. Where will the work force come? This is when this plan could fall under some heavy criticism, but the DR can attract university graduates from places like India, Brazil, Argentina, Thailand, Colombia, Venezuela, Cuba, Poland, Haiti, etc. to relocate to the DR with the prospect of filling the higher paying job positions of the multinationals. The multinationals would be happy because of their lowered cost and the university graduates from many countries would be happy because they have a job position that would allow them to have a good life in the "new" dominican republic. With time every sector of the economy would be filled with qualified or semi-qualified people from around the world. Given the central location of the DR in the hemisphere, the DR could become a trading giant in this side of the world. And history has shown that most of the wealthiest countries of the world are wealthy not by luck or chance, but by being the middle man in international business. What do you think, assuming all other things constant, do you think such plan if launched accordingly would prove to be effective?? Type your full thought of this.
 

Robert

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Interesting, but?

You cannot just relocate poor people. All you do is move the problem to another location.

Also you need to consider that some groups in the socio-economic spectrum have an interest in keeping people poor.

Who?s going to cook, clean etc? What about low cost semi and unskilled labor? Who's going to fix and build appropriate super highways and the pot holes? The middle class, I don't think so.

As you said ?This is all theoretically?? and that?s exactly the domain it will stay in.
 
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Oct 13, 2003
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Interesting plan

This is basically a charity scheme and although there are some things I think need to be changed it could be positive for the DR. You are looking to turn the DR into a next Singapore.

While this may be a good way to go, a number of assumptions are made.

1) Each country only has to accept 300,000 poor Domenicans, that automatically speak the language of each country they're deported to and become the most productive members of society. This assumes that there is nothing wrong with these people now, but their presence in the DR. I find that hard to believe. How (apart from the language issue) will these people suddenly have the skills necessary to entrepeneuraly contribute to the economy the 'host-countries'. Maybe they can work as dishwashers or garbagecollectors or something similar? The plan would then become a charity scheme.

2) The DR is emptied out from 8Mio to 3.2Mio people. How will society work, who will do the dishes, work as maids and other menial labour? Middle class people as a rule are not interested in this work. It always falls to the lowest classes, so maybe they needn't all be 'deported'.

3) The DR can then fix-up its infrastructure etc. Again, who will do this work. Building road and infrastructure is still a labour intensive job. Some lower class (for want of a better word) would still be needed.

4) The DR will be able to get heavy loans. With what kind of colleteral. Hippo has been borrowing against the future earning power of his population for a long time. If you reduce the population who will pay for the taxes needed to pay back the existing and new loans?

5) Getting expats from countries that don't speak Spanish to fill new jobs is also difficult. It would be better if the local population was educated to a sufficient level to fill those positions.

6) Not to be denigrating towards the DR but why, out of a multitude of poor countries should the DR receive preferential treatment? The same appeal could be made by a large number of smallish, economically deprived countries. What would be the reason to select the DR for such a scheme?

7) The current political system is based upon patronage and corruption. What makes you think a new government will do better than the current if they were given a fresh start?


However, despite its drawbacks, it is an interesting post and does point the way towards a number of improvements necessary for the DR:

1) More transparent and stable governement.
2) Better infrastructure
3) Education for the population
4) Strict budget discipline
5) Abandonment of patronage system
6) Lower corruption level

Only with a long period of a stable government that will work towards the good of the people, limiting spending and a strict austerity programme can this country move towards real development of its population instead of a country were the political class thinks nothing of buying a jeepeta for themselves and letting the hospitals go unfunded.

This change (if wanted) to my opinion should come from within the Domenican society, others can only point it out but Domenicans themselves are a free people and should decide their own affairs.

Maybe a good dictator would be the intermediate solution?

Kind regards,

MD
 

NALs

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I really like the responds already. MerengueDutchie, I had all of that in my mind the entire time. However consider this, the idea of those foreign countries accepting at least 300,000 dominicans that could excercise their possible entrepreneural ambitions because of the better opportunity available in those rich countries. The Haitians can be hired to do those "upgrades". The Haitian can be allowed to be in the country as long as these menial jobs demand their labor, but only the amount of workers needed. The point of this is to have people living at least a modest lifestyle in the DR. Once you have unemployment, the problems of starving arise, we don't want that now. And I do understand Hippo did a huge mess, but the IMF is still dealing around. The debts could be paid with the taxes collected through the "new" highly energized economy, etc. People keep bringing in some more ideas.
 

Chris

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This is the best marketing plan I've heard in a while... I'm having a good chuckle. Send all the 'problem-children' off to a 'sponsored' boarding school somewhere - and sell it on the basis of the value that the problem children will bring to their new school/environment - bring in manual workers to fix up the house (and the potholes) that the problem-children broke, and then bring all the children back.

I think it is great - Now which 'rich' countries will fall for it.. As far as I'm concerned, if I am in the rich country's shoes, my first question would be "So, now tell me why should I accept 300,000 'entrepeneurs' to my country if they could not 'entrepeneur' in their own country? If there are so many entrepeneurial people in the DR, why don't they get to work to fix their own country?

Nevertheless, it is one of those ideas that shows enough 'moxie' that it can possibly be made to work with the right 'packaging and productization'.

An altogether creative idea! Feasible? Well, I don't think so. I cannot image, for example the Japanese, bringing in 300,000 entrepeneurial Dominicans. Now picture that!
 

jsizemore

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Aug 6, 2003
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US might

In the Unites Sates there is a concern about social security going broke. This is due to the fact that the working class numbers are shrinking. With smaller family size and so forth the number of people paying into social security is dropping as the number of people collecting increases.
If the United States actually passed a guest worker policy Similar to Singapore?s that says you may not marry an American to get you permanent residency without applying first and a child born to guest worker parents would not automatically be a citizen then I think an easy sell could be made to grant large numbers of Dominicans Guest worker status in he US. They work for five or six years and come home. If they want the apply for permanent residency then they would have had a work history.
As long as it was set up that the only safety net was a ticket home and the taxpayers were not responsible for food stamps and so forth I think it would be an easy sell. Then the social security taxes would go toward the American social security system. If the Guest worker wanted to be eligible for the benefits then they would have to become citizens. Under these circumstances I feel your scheme would then work.
John
 

NALs

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Good point Cris

However, in the "meeting" with those high officials the government can always say that the reason why those entrepreneural dominicans aren't " fixing their country is because its hard for dominicans to pick up a loan at the high current interest rates, the channels of opportunity have been exhausted under the mind of many dominicans which hampers the will for many to even try starting up a business and also, many dominicans from the moment they are born only dream of living in "New York" or in some "rich country" and that in it self discourage many from trying any start ups within the Dominican Republic. In a short, this plan is to get rid of the "problem" by giving it to countries that have the income and potential of actually fixing it and to make things right by allowing educated peoples from countries with a shortage of highly specialized jobs to come to the DR and take up the new highly specialized jobs brought over from super expensive rich countries.
 
I just can't imagine a country that is strictly Middle and Upper class. But then again when I was in Saudi Arabia, they literally have to import poor people from countries like Sudan and The Pillippines to do low wage jobs that Saudi Arabians consider an insult to do.

I would say, Saudi Arabia is a good example for how your theory would work. Importing low wage workers has been their common practice for awhile.
 

jsizemore

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poor

I think for the model to work if maybe the country was left with about a 1/3 of the population being poor then it would be a good balance and work.

That is what happend after the great plague in europe. when the surfs were desimated then all of a sudden there was a shortage of peasents and the land owner lost a little power.
 

NALs

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Good point SancochoJoe. Good thing the Dominican Republic is a relatively small country. With neighboring Haiti where people are literally starving to death. So think about it. Lets say this plan goes into effect sometime, lets just imagine, Haitians who are in severe needs of Jobs could be hired to do those menial jobs. We can have a "train line" connecting Santo Domingo with Port-au-Prince and "import" and "export" the poor people from there to do menial jobs in the DR. Imagine, a law that would establish strict rules when it comes to hiring employees for menial jobs. Lets say the law would impose a 40 hour work week on most menial jobs but a Haitian can only be working two weeks out of every month. And they can only hire Haitians living in Haiti. So, on the first week of the month, a group of Haitian get on that train line and travel to the DR, Santo Domingo in this case. They check into an apart-hotel, how luxurious the accommodations depends on how much they want to pay. They do their work in the DR for that first week. They get there paycheck. Then at the end of that week they hop on that train back home with their pockets fill with enough cents to cover their living expenses in Haiti. Then after one week of break, that same Haitian does the same thing all over again. During that break week, another Haitian does the same thing. You see, it will be something good for both countries. Plus, most of the Free Trade Zone jobs will probably hop over the border to Haiti (big plus for them) because the job market will be diminished in the DR. Thus, the DR becomes a first world country. This is only a "quickie" solution or possible solution. The DR can follow the long and very un-optimistic path of spending millions in public health and education with out being sure that it will have a good "Rate of Return" so to speak. Imagine, the DR gets serious about educating its people, and once they get educated they get scooped off by the U.S. or European Union. That brain drain is no good for the country being drained.
 
Nal0whs

Your last post almost sound like what is done on the base at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba. The local Cubans march into the American controlled military base in Guantanamo Bay to day their daily work than march off the base to go back home.

But just the whole idea leaves a bad taste in my mouth with the method. Its like a concentration camp or something. Thats just the image I see in my head.

I understand your point and it probably could be good for the two poor countries.

Would you call this tough love. Or just an opportunity.

"You can always keep giving them rice and beans all day and everyday, but if you teach them how to grow rice and beans, you gain ten fold."

My point is a bit of skilled training should be added into the mix to build the since of motivation and insentive and even ennovation in order to move up in life instead of this "chain gang" approach.
 

lhtown

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Nal0whs,

Interesting idea and well-written. However, there are a number of major problems for your scheme. Perhaps the idea could be incorporated successfully in a very limited way.

Perhaps the greatest error is that you vastly overestimate the entrepreneurial abilities and desires of the Dominican poor and also vastly overestimate the abilities of others to take their place in society.
 

NALs

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I know what you are saying and I know that feeling you're talking about. It's a feeling that describes hatred being covered up with a big fake smile. I understand that very very well. However, that last post is actually talking about something much more humane that the Bateye system that exist right now in the DR where Haitian are treated worst than animals. Whats better, for them to live in squalid conditions or for them to earn a little money in the DR and then spend it in Haiti, where it's much more cheaper to live, at least cheaper than in the DR. That way, the price of menial labor stays cheap without leaving anyone with a harsh life to live, and the DR will host a sizable middle class and wealthy class. Instead of thinking of this as a concentration camp deal, think of it as a life giving deal. After all, if Dominican Republic educates it's people, they will be scoop off by the brain drain that Developed Nations seem to impose on developing nations. On top of that, Haiti, a country where problem are gigantic in every front faces starvation, natural degredation, international discrimination, super corrupted government (at least the DR government acts as if its helping it's people building a few cheap houses here and there), etc. Trust me, with a little "oiling" of plans such as the one put forth here, the sun might begin to shine a bit britter in the soul of every Hispaniolan. The Dominicans will be satisfied with their more comfortable lifestyles in other countries. The "adopted" dominicans will feel satisfied with their comfortable lifestyle within the DR and the Haitians will feel a sense of Hope in a country that hardly knows what hope feels like. This plan is more positive than it seems. Trust me. The next time you're in the DR, just imagine those barrios with beautiful houses, and nice gardens in front of them, and wonderful families that will be able to say at least, that they are happy to be living comfortable. When you are in the DR, imagine instead of seeing that shoeshine boy doing his shoeshine tricks, he would be playing with his friends in a real playground with real toys. Imagine every haitian that you see in the DR with a grumpy face due to the Discrimination and "bad luck" they seem to have where ever they go, imagine if that same Haitian will smile at you not because you gave him a buck, but because he knows that his children will sleep with a full stomach in their beloved Haiti. Just imagine. All thats needed for Success is some Imagination, everything else falls in it's place. Imagine the big picture, and you'll see that the light at the end of the tunnel is about as bright, if not brighter than that of the Sun. Take Care and enjoy the Dominican Republic to the fullest the next time youre there. But don't forget to imagine.
 

jsizemore

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what about the old

You forget one group of people that would not move nor would benifit. The elderly poor would not want to nor be welcomed to be transplated. They would be left out of the loop as their support system of exteneded family was sent to other countries.
My reason for picking at your proposal is it has merit and who knows what could happen in the future.
John
 

El Pachi

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Crazy Idea

Here's a good one: If the Dominican Republic only has 10 million habitants, and the Government knows how to spend RD$100 millions in infrastructure that's gonna go to waste anyways, how about giving RD$1,000,000 (one million) to each and every citizen of the DR; with that, you can pay some debts, pay for college, buy some food and INVEST some of that money on something, SAVE some more and use as necessary.

After every election, repeat the process ;)
 

carl ericson70

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Nov 15, 2003
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Hogwash!

In my opinion such an orchestrated endeavor would not at all be a good Idea.I don't necessaarily have a problem with foreigners,but I strongly disaprove of third world countries dumping their problems(poor people)in the laps of richer nations.We have poor people of our own.

To me it makes much more sense for people to stick it out in their home countries and strive to improve the living standards there.We already have enough unemployment in this country!

When you've indians in the science and tech fields taking multitudes of jobs(for 1/4th the pay) from the mid classes,with the help of american corporations,of course,and you have foreign hispanics taking up the unskilled labor and driving-down wages.Someone please tell me what are americans supposed to do for a living?

Adding insult to injury-the current u.s. admininistrations plan to open the flood gates-giving illegal immigrants the right to work.It definately seems as if hell is upon us.

Last,dominicans don't own or manage 89% of the grocery stores in New York city.

Carl

Carl
 
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NALs

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Thoughtful, but Bad Idea El Pachi

El Pachi, giving money to people won't solve anything. They will spend that amount just as quickly as they got it. Thats like communism, giving people money doesn't solve a thing at all. Most wont save anything because
1. they went from $0 to $1 million, why save when there is so much right!

2. They didn't went through the actual labor to actually attain that $1 million, so they wont think twice before buying something very pricey.

3. If most poor would be capable of enhancing their standards of living through money they simply get, then most of the population would have been living quite well considering that most dominicans have family living in the US or elsewhere, sending money at least once a month. But no, they simple cash those dollars and spend every single cent. Giving people money will never work. This plan actually allows for unoptimistic people to become optimistic, it allows for upward moving people to see the light, it allows for a major economic positive change in full force with not much left to failure.

And to answer to jsizemore, most of those elderly poor would probably either A) receive a monthly check from their family from abroad, B) will move with their family to another country, or C) stay with some of their most trusted family members. The Dominican Republic is a relatively young country, in a percentage wise, elderly Dominicans hardly exist. They only make up about 10% or so of the population, maybe even less.
 

NALs

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Carl, this plan from one tiny country won't cause a collapse of America

Keep in mind that all that America has to allow is 300,000 dominicans. That's like a grain of sand at a beach, considering how many immigrants make it to the US on an illegal status. The US can handle 300,000. And according to the last census, around 89 or 90% of the small grocery stores and many other small business in New York City are owned or managed by Dominicans. Did I also mentioned that American Airlines most profitable route is the NYC-JFK Santo Domingo route. It was the only route that wasn't severely affected by the 9-11 attacks or the crash in Queens which was an American Airlines flight to Santo Domingo. The planes kept flying packed. Dominicans are people that love their land and if they are spread all over, that could mean good news for the airline industries of other countries as well. I like the responses, very interesting how people have different opinions with this debate but seem to be agreeing at the same time. Keep the responses coming!! Oh yeah, and under such plan, the US won't take the brunt of the immigrants (as usual), it will be split among the 16 wealthiest most powerful and capable nations on earth of fixing such problem. Come to think of it, there is no problem to fix, this is just giving potential to succeed for people that have the will in them to succeed but haven't done so in their own land due to high interest rates, with spread un-optimism, and the sheer dream of living in a rich country which discourages many from starting anything within the Dominican Republic.
 

toby

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Dec 8, 2003
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Facinating

What a great read and interesting viewpoints throughout. Best to also encourage the great nations of the world to consider changes to thier "very ancient" immigration policies. The first world nations first and formost have to have a change in attitude towards the much needed "newcomers" to thier homelands. Years of prejudice and refusals on the part of the first world nations to open thier countries to others has taken its toll. A more welcoming and opened minded system our end would ensure the incorporation of the much needed immigration families from not only the DR but around the world.
My recent visit to the DR can attest to the difficulties immigration possess on the average DR worker. I made the point of asking most if not all of the DR residents I encountered "would you come to Canada and live and work if you could" Most if not all responses were the same..."I would love to come and live and work in Canada, but it is very very difficult to get a visa, impossible, I would work any job and work hard but Canada gives no visas" (Only one one young man could tell me that he was finally close to gathering enough money so he can come to Canada as he will be sponsored by a family member. One out of about 50-80 people we encountered)
Most were not even afraid of the cold or distance away from family. We just won't give them a chance.
Canada has made very great strides in the immigration area over the last 30
years and has still a fair way to go before truly being considered a fair system.
Can we sustain 300,000 immigrants from the DR. Of what I saw and from the small sampling of the population we encountered on our stay, we should be actively pursuing this amount or more to be included in our "melting pot". We would be richer for it, and blessed with the talents the people of the DR would bring with them. As I am sure we would all agreee our countries were built by the hands of those who seek a better life. Its time to open our doors again to those who are willing to work hard.
 
Let me play Devils Advocate.......

What does the rich nations have to gain from importing people from poor nations besides "cheap labor" and backlash from unemployed workers in the rich nations.

I see burdens such as health care, low imcome housing, language barriers. Anything else?
 
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