Blackest prediction ever, default and conflict and strife

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ltsnyder

Bronze
Jun 4, 2003
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www.x3ci.com
Could any one imagine the following senario?

The Dominican Republic defaults on its loan, as a result the economic situation goes from bad to worse (so what's new). While the tourism breifly surges due to low labor costs, this does not offset the festering poverty of the majority as a result of this economic catastrophy. A candidate that supports land reform laws comes alone (i.e. Chaves like) that the poor support and the rich (or any one far beyond the starvation level ) hates.
The desperate need of the poor to survive (or be selfish, depending on your opinion) and the dire need of the rich land owners and others to retain thier wealth leads to political manipulation by bribes (by the rich) and political manipulation by death threats (by the poor) (I know this is a almost a charaticure, just trying to give an idea). Escalate into civil strife on the street, which then in turn leads to the US (or others with the same solution in mind), to land troops and prop up the party and candidate of the rich.

I could invent all kind of details, but to think we (or the DR) is above civil strife if things go from what they are now to worse . . . .

I mean, who could survive (of the poor) if the peso goes to 100 for 1 US$, any one with out a small plot of land will be starving, and if there is a default, there will be a whole lot of starving people here all at the same time.

Ok, maybe or I think this senario is exzagerated, but the core of the poor in the major cities, that have no land, will be motivated in this direction.

-Lee
 
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dms3611

Bronze
Jan 14, 2002
664
14
0
Nope...couldn't imagine it.....but please forecast when you

....feel comfortable that its about to happen. That way AZB and CC will have enough time to clear their stuff out.
 
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GringoCArlos

Retired Ussername
Jan 9, 2002
1,416
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Ain't gonna happen here. The rich don't own all of the land, the GOVERNMENT does, courtesy of Trujillo's reign.

The poor came to the cities looking for work. If they don't find work, they make work in the streets, selling or doing what they need to do to buy some rice and beans and platanos for today. For them,tomorrow will happen when it gets here.

It's not the rich passing out money at election time, it's chopo politicians who took the money from whatever make-work program they control, and passing it out $100 pesos at a time to the poor, both in the cities and in the campo.

Why do you think that ugly new statue on the way to the Santo Domingo airport shows several people holding out their hands to Pena Gomez?? They are asking for money. How lifelike.

The DR didn't have much money when times were good. Why would you think that "no money" if they defaulted would change anything. It will only affect the 10% in the middle class, who had a taste of money, and then lost it. The rich don't keep their money here, so they won't lose it. The poor never had it, so what's different this time?
 
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Lambada

Gold
Mar 4, 2004
9,478
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www.ginniebedggood.com
Lee,
If people didn't "man the barricades" in the last 2 years, what makes you think they will now?
As to whether they SHOULD or not, that is a whole other question. I've always felt very torn here. As a social activist in my country of origin, I have often felt like engaging in political fomentation in the barrios, encouraging people to stand up & be counted. On the other hand, I know the end result of this will be bad for me personally. When I was in the barrios in the 12 months before the elections, I was sometimes exasperated by the "learned helplessness" attitude.....who me? I can't change anything attitude. I always put it down to the historical legacy of having had a dictatorship here. Either that, or people are too lazy or too optimistic to organise a revolution.....of those two, I think the latter.
 
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quejeyoke

New member
Jun 20, 2004
167
0
0
keep thinkin'!

I don't see any type of revolution happening in DR any time soon. The poor are very tough and optimistic in DR. Our "own Chavez" will not fly to the catcher mit either. Too many families are poor and living in a world of Shannel* thanks to El Generalisimo stripping them of their lands and donating to the spaniards and others to do as they see fit and keeping some of it for him and the GOV. Try and talk about the next dictator in DR to my mother's family in Cabrera and you better tell them laying down in your coffin. RIP!
 
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Porfio_Rubirosa

Bronze
Apr 26, 2002
1,806
10
0
If a "revolutionary" comes to be in the DR, it will be a known PRD politician acting as an opportunist during bad times. For whatever reason, there is no real left wing rhetoric that resonates in the DR. And I don't see a politicized, idealized, young officer corps (a necessary ingredient) either.

If the Fernandez administration can survive the first two VERY PAINFUL years, then things will begin to show a turnaround by the end of their term.

Riots and disruption? Yea, you'll be seeing those. But I don't see any seeds of demand for alternative political systems.
 
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Criss Colon

Platinum
Jan 2, 2002
21,843
191
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yahoomail.com
Well,at least we have the "Correct" view about some things!

Just when I thought we would never agree on anything regarding the DR,you come along and hit a "Homerun"!!Well Done!cccccccccccccccccccccc :cheeky:
 
K

kingofdice

Active member
Jan 16, 2002
406
29
28
GringoCarlos has it pegged pretty dead center. The rich in the D.R. are not going to keep their money in the country. The poor are already poor. Perhaps some of the middle class that may have had a better lifestyle will be more affected. But, it would take alot to wreak a complete political upheaval in the D.R. to resort back to a tyrannical dictator like Trujillo. Even after Argentina defaulted, they just had a string of new presidents. The general population did not attempt to burn down Argentina and assinate political leaders. It would take massive starvation in the D.R. and very dire circumstances to foment political revolution and replace the entire form of government.
 
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Ricardo900

Silver
Jul 12, 2004
3,269
37
48
That's right!

kingofdice said:
GringoCarlos has it pegged pretty dead center. The rich in the D.R. are not going to keep their money in the country. The poor are already poor. Perhaps some of the middle class that may have had a better lifestyle will be more affected. But, it would take alot to wreak a complete political upheaval in the D.R. to resort back to a tyrannical dictator like Trujillo. Even after Argentina defaulted, they just had a string of new presidents. The general population did not attempt to burn down Argentina and assinate political leaders. It would take massive starvation in the D.R. and very dire circumstances to foment political revolution and replace the entire form of government.
Click to expand...
As long as the people can eat platanos, drink presidentes and dance bachata, people are not going to revolt! You will have to STARVE people into revolution, unless it's already in the nature/culture. "Give people what they want or they will take it from you"
 
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Pib

Goddess
Jan 1, 2002
3,668
20
38
www.dominicancooking.com
GringoCArlos said:
Why do you think that ugly new statue on the way to the Santo Domingo airport shows several people holding out their hands to Pena Gomez?? They are asking for money. How lifelike.
Click to expand...
There is a statue of Pe?a G?mez? How comes nobody told me? Is this some kind of conspiracy?
 
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