Hurricane Frances

Thank You Ken!

Why not make you the "NEW & IMPROVED" DR1 Weather Guru???????
I like it when you post the "site" so I can see the projected track!CRIS COLON

So then..............anyone got any idea on predictions for it passing?

If it might be here by next Wednesday - whats the predictions for how long it will affect the DR? (Dominican Republic, La Republica Dominicana )

This one is still anybody's guess I think as to where it will make landfall. At the moment the five day forecast shows that the eyes passes us more than 100 miles north.... but, I don't trust these things, especially if they have a women's name.

If it continues on its current track, we will see somewhat agitated seas and stormy weather. If it curves slightly to the southwest, our stormy conditions will increase in intensity. But, it is still far off - so, let's simply watch it for now.... Around Sunday night / Monday, there will be more certainty....

Still a crapshoot

A quick ballpark computation by latitude and longitude would place the eye at about 289 statute miles from Punta Cana this Wednesday am. This is based upon today's NHC 11 am update of the hurricane center forecast of a location which I estimate as 22 30' 0" N, 67 0' 0" W.

It is still a crapshoot.


Regards,
PJT

How close is too close?

Everybody always talks about "a Hurricane is coming this way". To me, the important thing is to know what the effect will be where I am as it passes by. Because the chances are that it will pass by - but how far away? And what does that mean in real terms?

Well, generally speaking, you only get Huricane force winds and weather (greater than 70 mph winds, which will take a weak roof off a house) within 15 to 25 miles of the center. The eye is usually only a few miles in diameter. Within 35 to 60 miles from the center you will get tropical storm force winds (from 40 to 60 mph) which will do damage to a small house. At 100 miles away it will generally be a near gale or gale (30-45 mph that might knock down a tree.) For the land-lubbers, a gale is a heavy storm with driving rain that you don't want to go out into.

You can find a good reference to Hurricane Categories at http://www.srcc.lsu.edu/OEP/hurr_scale.html.

NOAA's 11:00 am report gives the following:
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM.

For those interested in the Beaufort Scale denoting the Force of the Wind, please see http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lot/webpage/beaufort/ .

BTW, Sir Beaufort's first name was Francis!

My prediction on Frances (the Hurricane) is that it will pass at least 100 mi north of Hispanola. Historically storms on this track tend to veer north west (except for those that don't . However, we'll only know better on Sun-Mon.

I guess this means a flight from DC to SJU to POP might be heavily affected. Maybe I should delay the trip down? From the latest storm track, it looks like rain for a few days?

This thing seems to be getting very well organized... Let's just hope it keeps heading north...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-vis-loop.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html

Just keep your guards up, but don't get too crazy about it yet.

If Puerto Rico gets hit, eastern areas of the DR will get hit or will feel a good brunt of the storm. This also will extend along the north coast.

If Puerto Rico is missed by the storm, we have nothing to worry about. A bit of rain and some gusty winds, but no Hurricane Georges repeat.

The people that should have shaking knees are those in the Bahamas (they always get hit) and those in Miami. Miami folks were lucky during Charley a few weeks ago, Frances might be another story.

Just another link......

http://www.hurricaneadvisories.com/trackmap2001.html

Well, no major change during the night.

Frances has strengthened to a Cat 3 Hurricane with sustained winds of 115 mph.

All the computer models are showing predictions of Frances passing the DR at least 150 miles off, around Wednesday. So we are probably in for some heavy rain and wind in the mid-week next week with higher than normal tides on the North Coast and Samana.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200406_model.html

Still a bit too early to predict with confidence however.

Planning?

I would say at this stage that it is really not yet the time to consider a change in travel plans. Wait till at least Monday and monitor this thread. Looks like Ken and SaltyDawg are keeping us all in the loop here.

We've seen these weather systems veer off to the North/Northwest so many times in the past, that chances are that this one will veer as well. It certainly is following the normal kind of path at this stage. But, as I said earlier, I don't trust them, especially if they have a women's name!

For us in the Caribbean, at this time in the season, we should all have our hurricane preparedness plan complete and be ready to carry out the plan should we need to.

beano said:

I guess this means a flight from DC to SJU to POP might be heavily affected. Maybe I should delay the trip down? From the latest storm track, it looks like rain for a few days?

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I wouldn't worry too much about the flight down - if flying is dangerous, the airlines will cancel flights and close down airports or fly around the weather.

However, one thing is certain - that, unless Frances turns due north in the next two days, PR and the DR will both get weather - at least overcast, rain and some winds which will last for 2 or 3 days.

So if you are coming down for the sunshine, beaches and idyllic weather, you might have to visit museums, play dominos and drink Ron for a short period of time. I can live with that!

These weather systems are totally unpredictable so wait until Monday or Tuesday when Frances will hopefully declare her intentions before you change your travel plans.

Today's Tropical Storm Update

Says that it is likely that Francis will "Bend westward and near the latitude of the VI and Puerto Rico, but it is likely to be on the North of these islands.

?F this is accurate, the tendency was with HUGO to veer to the North as it passed PR and give Samana and Nagua a good bath and some rains on the North Coast.

Let's see how this one plays out..

HB

Hope it misses the DR and coastal NC. I am still fixing things from that damn Charley three weeks ago.

Ken said:

Figuring large in the debate is what Gaston, the storm now forming in the Gulf will do. .

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Looking at the map for gaston it formed in the ocean east of Georgia, missing the Gulf of Mexico by quite a bit.

I just need Frances to hold it a bit for my 6 p.m. flight from Fort Lauderdale to SDQ, then it can go by. Or betetr yet, dissipate.