Tropical Storm Ivan

Mirador

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Ivan

Not trying to be a harbinger, but TD9 looks foreboding on the Northeastern Atlantic.

Mirador
 

Ken

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One of many, Mirador, that we will be watching. For the Caribbean, the hurricane season is just getting started. We've got about 3 months to go.
 

Ken

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The 9th storm of the season, Ivan, looks like another one for the south coasters to sweat out. See track as of 5 am this morning. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphic...IF/030853W5.gif

Still a long way away, but the way things are going, it is a good idea to keep an eye on what it is up to.

The forecasters report that a subtropical ridge is influencing the direction of this storm and that this ridge will continue to be an influkence during the forecast period. For this reason, they are quite confident at this point that Ivan will remain in the Caribbean. Computer models expect Ivan to be at least a category 3 hurricane within 84 hours.
 
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timelessdreams

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Link not working...

Ken said:
The 9th storm of the season, Ivan, looks like another one for the south coasters to sweat out. See track as of 5 am this morning. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphic...IF/030853W5.gif

Still a long way away, but the way things are going, it is a good idea to keep an eye on what it is up to.

The forecasters report that a subtropical ridge is influencing the direction of this storm and that this ridge will continue to be an influkence during the forecast period. For this reason, they are quite confident at this point that Ivan will remain in the Caribbean. Computer models expect Ivan to be at least a category 3 hurricane within 84 hours.

Ken,

This link doesn't appear to be working...I tried a few different search engines....and keep recieving 'PAGE NOT FOUND".

Thanks!
 

tired_boy

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I am arriving in POP on Tuesday and after seeing Frances moving alongside the north i thought ' oh well, at least that is out of the way', and then along comes this 'blob' called Ivan threatening to have a tantrum around Thursday. I have been 3 or 4 times to the DR in September and i cant remember seeing a couple in quick succession like this.

Is it just me or is it like this every hurricane season?
 

Drake

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Jan 1, 2002
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Ivan

Ivan is coming in on the same trajectory as hurricane David did.
see http://www.acqweather.com/trackDAVID.gif

Looks like a classic Cape Verde. Cape Verde Hurricanes take the same route of the Trade Winds. They cross the Atlantic and then curve upwards in a North East direction when they reach the Caribbean. This change of direction enabled the sail boats to return to Europe. Ivan is coming in at a dangerous angle and we will have to wait and see if it swerves up onto Hispa?iola.

I dont want to be without bananas for 9 months again.
see image
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg
 
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Dolores1

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Hurricane trivia

Historical tracks for hurricanes in September

See http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200406_climo.html

Of the 11 bad hurricanes to hit the Dominican Republic in the past 100 years, 9 hit in September. And David hit on 30 August, so it could be included almost as a September time hurricane.

For more history on hurricanes in the DR, see http://www.dr1.com/weather/hurricanes.shtml

On the other hand, the USA Today newspaper mentions the DR as having a lower possibility of being affected by a hurricane than Antigua, Jamaica, Bahamas, U.S. Virgin Islands or Puerto Rico.
See http://www.usatoday.com/weather/hurricane/history/probabilities-table.htm
 
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bcmike

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Hope so, but...

Lemmee try again... They ( forecasters) do like the one showing a northward path, and any southern turn ( like TS Earl) is not being strongly considered. What I don't like is the rather tight grouping of possible paths that are a lot closer to RD than in previous storms. In particular the METUK. They seem to be "right" more often than not. But it IS early, and I would have sworn that Earl was on it's way,too.
 
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tired_boy

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On that link that Dolores provided it talks about winds at 100 knots and gusts to 120 knots around the 9th Septmeber. How does that work out in miles an hour?

Its not looking very good at the moment. I fly in on the 7th, but we will wait and watch.......
 

DominicanScotty

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Is anyone watching Ivan?

Look at Ivan growing out there in the Atlantic. Ivan is supossed to grow to over 100kts within the week and is projected to barrel into Santo Domingo by the 9th of September! Although us people in the Sosua area are protected by the mountains we should still keep an eye on this one. Anyone remember Georges?
 

FireGuy

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With respect DominicanScotty,

DominicanScotty said:
...Ivan is supossed to grow to over 100kts within the week and is projected to barrel into Santo Domingo by the 9th of September!...Anyone remember Georges?

it might be a bit early to worry about Ivan as a serious threat. I am not discounting the possibility that you could be right but five days in the life of a possible hurricane (the time from now until the ninth) is an eternity and lots of different variables will impact on the final path and development (or not) of this Tropical Storm.

I agree that one shouldn't hide one's head in the proverbial sand but neither should one be overly concerned this far out.

Just mi dos pesos.

Gregg
 

Ken

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FireGuy said:
I agree that one shouldn't hide one's head in the proverbial sand but neither should one be overly concerned this far out.
.

Gregg

I agree, Gregg. In their discussions, the forecasters always say don't get over alarmed at the projections more than a few days out since so many things can and do happen to hurricanes. But it is important to be aware of the possibility, especially if living in the target zone or planning to visit that area about the time landfall is projected.

But it is my personal opinion, having watched a lot of hurricanes and tropical storms make their way by the Dominincan Republic during the 18+ years that I have lived here, that generally the best place to be is where the forecasts show it will make landfall in 4 or 5 days. Almost always the point of landfall changes a number of times during that period.