More Fierce Hurricanes May Loom on Horizon

Chris

Gold
Oct 21, 2002
7,951
28
0
www.caribbetech.com
What gives me courage...

(Dutch courage that is, as I am very afraid of hurricanes) is the following statement in this article Ken,

"For three-day forecasts, the average margin of error is now about 200 nautical miles, just half of what it was in 1964. Daily predictions are also improving. Today, the average margin of error is just 85 nautical miles, the Center reported."
 

Dolores1

DR1
May 3, 2000
8,215
37
48
www.
Experts at the Climate Institute concur.

This appeared in June in DR1 Travel News after speaking to an expert from the Climate Institute during the CMEx tourism exchange seminar in St. Lucia.

Climate Institute alerts Caribbean
The Caribbean?s islands stand to lose half a meter of land to rising sea levels in the next 50 years, and at least one meter in the next 100 years, said the Climate Institute?s Tom Roper during the recently held Caribbean Media Exchange in St. Lucia. Because the expanding sea level will have a definite impact on beach developments, it is an issue that needs to be taken into consideration now. Roper urged the international community to reinforce its commitments to curtail greenhouse gas emissions in order to slowdown the pace of erosion. But meanwhile he said island countries will have to take measures to adapt to the changes.
A UN report indicates that the global average sea level has risen about 10 times faster over the past 100 years than in the previous 3,000. Roper, as the project leader for the Global Sustainable Energy Islands Initiative of the Climate Institute, also said that the Caribbean will experience higher temperatures as a result of global warming.
The frequency and intensity of hurricanes is expected to increase, while hurricanes are expected to shift slightly to the north. The greater frequency and magnitude of tropical storm cycles is a major concern for small island states, as they in turn intensify the risk of flooding, accelerate existing rates of beach erosion and could cause displacement of settlements and infrastructure, according to the United Nations.
According to the United Nations report released during CMEx, ?Most countries are already experiencing disruptive changes consistent with many of the anticipated consequences of global change, including extensive coastal erosion, droughts, coral bleaching, more widespread and frequent occurrence of mosquito-borne disease and high sea levels, which in addition to affecting valuable beach property is also making some soils too saline for cultivation of traditional crops.?
Roper said that small islands have caused the least amount of damage, but will suffer the greatest effects of global warming. He then spoke of the pressure for Caribbean leaders not to speak out on the issues.
The CMEx conference focused on how small islands with fragile resources are facing a challenge to bring in tourism and all the associated economic benefits without destroying the very product tourists have come to experience.
For more information, see http://www.climate.org

(From http://dr1.com/travelnews/archive/2004/tnews062904.html)

Actually Tom Roper told us that unfortunately big hurricanes hitting the US would be necessary for the US to awaken and take steps to contribute to reduce global warming as had been agreed during the Clinton administration.
 

Mirador

On Permanent Vacation!
Apr 15, 2004
3,563
0
0
The frequency and intensity of hurricanes is expected to increase,

I'm not sure if the current method (Saffir-Simpson scale) of categorizing the intensity of hurricanes is worth much in describing the danger a hurricane. I'm sure a slow moving and low category (cat 2) Frances will do more damage to Florida than a fast moving one and higher category. For those of us who remember hurricane David (cat 5) in 1979, I believe it was tropical storm Frederick five days later, that did most of the damage.

Mirador
 

Chris

Gold
Oct 21, 2002
7,951
28
0
www.caribbetech.com
Hurricanes and Global Warming

Did not quite know whether this should go to debates or to weather...

For me, I've never experienced a hurricane season with the number of storms that this one has produced. The clever metereologists (sp) and global climatologists tell us that it could be as a result of global warming? Did any of you see the press over the past few days that Tony Blair is getting quite agitated and getting into Bush's business in the US and speaking strongly to Putin in Russia about these two very large countries being non-signatories to the Kyoto Accord?

And sure this is DR related to my way of thinking - the darn storms all come through here!
 
Last edited:

Dolores1

DR1
May 3, 2000
8,215
37
48
www.
Merged your new thread here because these two are related and very timely. See the opinion of Tom Roper of the Climate Institute above, posted in dr1 travel news in June after I had the pleasure of interviewing him in St. Lucia during a CMEx tourism reporting conference sponsored by Counterpart International. He raised these same issues and added the sad note that big storms would be needed to get the Bush administration to understand the issues at hand -- the importance of implementing the Kyoto Accord.

Read all about it...

http://www.climate.org/topics/intaction/index.shtml#blair
 

Talldrink

El Mujeron
Jan 7, 2004
2,209
42
0
Definition...

I just took a Science Class, so for those of you who dont what the Kyoto Protocol is, here is the definition:

Kyoto Protocol ? Initial treaty formulated at the International Climate Warming Conference in Kyoto Japan, December 1997. The treaty stipulated that highly developed countries must cut their emissions of CO2 and other gases that cause warming by an average of 5.2% by 2012; developing countries do not have to make comparable cuts.
Berg, L. & Raven, P. (2004). Environment (4th edition). Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons.