Jeanne Storm Damages Report

franco

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Hurricane Jeanne

http://intellicast.com/Local/USNati...harts&product=HurTrack1&prodnav=none&pid=none

WTNT31 KNHC 132115
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST MON SEP 13 2004

...CORRECTED STORM MOTION SECTION

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS ISSUED
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MARTEEN.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD ALSO AFFECT THE REMAINDER OF THE
NORTHEN LESSER ANTILLES TO THE NORTH OF GUADELOUPE.

AT 5 PM AST...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ELEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.4 WEST
OR ABOUT 70 MILES... 110 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUADELOUPE.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH
...19 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON TUESDAY. LOCALLY
HIGHER WINDS...POSSIBLY TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE PATH OF THE DEPRESSION.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...16.0 N... 60.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART
 

tired_boy

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Dec 4, 2003
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SaltyDawg

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5:00 am Advisoried

Looks like a Gale to me. And still way to early to tell what this storm will do. Hitting or passing PR will tell a lot.

However, the forecasters put her about 75 miles north of Samana peninsula on Thursday morning 2:00am and 150 north of Cofresi on the north coast on Friday at 2:00 am - which would mean just good kite surfing winds and maybe a bit of rain.

Worth keeping an eye on her, however. I also wouldn't bite my nails just yet, Ken :)
 

Ken

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Jan 1, 2002
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SaltyDawg said:
Worth keeping an eye on her, however. I also wouldn't bite my nails just yet, Ken :)

I agree, SaltyDawg, but if you read back over past threads you will see that these reports have a lot of readers who like to start biting their nails sooner rather than later.
 

Chris

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Oct 21, 2002
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Ken said:
I agree, SaltyDawg, but if you read back over past threads you will see that these reports have a lot of readers who like to start biting their nails sooner rather than later.

OK, I'll have no nails left after this hurricane season - too much already! For me, storms of this nature bring unadulterated fear and fascination!
 

Mirador

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Apr 15, 2004
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Tropical Storm Jeanne

The historical map shows that of about 12 storms, only two have missed the Island of Hispaniola.

Mirador

Tropical Storm Jeanne Discussion Number 4


Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on September 14, 2004


Satellite and radar data indicate that Tropical Depression Eleven
has acquired enough banding features to be upgraded to Tropical
Storm Jeanne. The initial intensity is based on Dvorak satellite
intensity estimates of 45 kt from both TAFB and SAB...and 35 kt...
from AFWA. Recon will reach Jeanne around 18z.

The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 290/10. The
advisory position as adjusted slightly south of the previous
position and forecast track based on radar data from Guadeloupe.
However...this more southerly initial position may just be due to
disruption of the surrounding deep convection by some of the larger
Leeward Islands. A motion to the west-northwest is expected to
resume shortly...but the forecast track has been adjusted a little
south or to the left of the previous forecast owing to the more
southerly initial position. The NHC track model guidance is in very
good agreement on a west-northwestward motion through 72 hr. After
that...the model guidance diverges significantly with the GFS and
GFDL models turning Jeanne more northward...while the NOGAPS...
UKMET...and Canadian models trending more westward. A strong ridge
is already in place across the western Atlantic from Bermuda to
Florida...which separates T.S. Jeanne from Hurricane Ivan. Only the
GFS and GFDL weaken the ridge to the north of Jeanne in the later
periods. The remainder of the models maintain the ridge and even
build it slightly westward. The forecast was shifted slightly
westward at 96- and 120-hours similar to the NOGAPS and Canadian
models...and is close to the GUNS consensus model.

Jeanne is currently underneath a fairly favorable upper-level flow
pattern to the east of an amplifying upper-level trough. The only
immediate hindering influence to the intensification process is dry
air punching into the system from the northwest. However...
surrounding upper-air data suggests that this should be short-lived
and steady intensification should occur until Jeanne passes over or
near Puerto Rico. In the longer term...Jeanne is forecast to pass
near the base of the upper-level trough in 48-96 hours...which
results in 20-25 kt of northerly shear during that time period. The
intensity is leveled off until 120 hours...when the shear is
expected to weaken to less than 10 kt from an easterly direction.

Forecaster Stewart

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 14/1500z 16.6n 63.1w 35 kt
12hr VT 15/0000z 17.3n 64.6w 45 kt
24hr VT 15/1200z 18.3n 66.3w 55 kt...inland Puerto Rico
36hr VT 16/0000z 19.2n 68.0w 55 kt
48hr VT 16/1200z 20.0n 69.5w 60 kt
72hr VT 17/1200z 21.2n 71.3w 60 kt
96hr VT 18/1200z 22.5n 73.0w 60 kt
120hr VT 19/1200z 24.5n 75.0w 70 kt
 

Drake

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Jan 1, 2002
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Hurricane Jeanne

Looks like Thursday is going to be a rainy day. Cat 1 Hurricane set to skirt the North coast. Its a baby compared to Ivan. Predicted sustained winds 65 knots. Gusts upto 80 Knots whenit passes the DR

Taken from NOAA site
Cat 1 definition :Winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt or 119-153 km/hr). Storm surge generally 4-5 ft above normal. No real damage to building structures. Damage primarily to unanchored mobile homes, shrubbery, and trees. Some damage to poorly constructed signs. Also, some coastal road flooding and minor pier damage.

It cant be too nasty it?s a lady Hurricane!!
 

Dolores1

DR1
May 3, 2000
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Conchman said:
so 10 out of 12 hit? is this from the current position you mean? Do you have that link for historical map?

The only historical map I can find so far is http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200411_climo.html

But in paper form, the Ministry of Environment new atlas features these storms on a hurricane map:

Storms crossing or coming very near to the DR this century:

1916. Unnamed. 117km/h winds. Entering Level of Higuey exiting Dajabon.
1918. Unnamed. 61-117 km/h. Entering near Boca Chica exiting Bahia La Isabela (north coast).
1921. Unnamed. 118 km/h. Entering Boca Chica exiting Samana.
1930. San Zenon. 200 km/h. Entering Santo Domingo, exiting Comendador on the frontier with Haiti.
1926. Unnamed. 118 km. Crossing diagonally off Samana peninsula.
1931. Unnamed. 118 km/h. Entering at level of Cabeza de Toro on the east and traveling straight across to exit via Barahona to Haiti in the west.
1952. Charlie. 100 km/h.
1966. Ines. 240 km/h. Crossing the peninsula of Pedernales on the southwesternmost tip of the island.
1975. Eloisa. 90 km/h Crossing straight from Cabo Frances Viejo through Manzanillo on the northwest.
1979. Claudette. 63 km/h. Crossing through Higuey and then out by Comendador on to Haiti on the west.
1979. David.240 km/h Entering by San Cristobal and exiting in the middle of the island by Restauracion on to Haiti to the west.
1979. Frederic. 100 km/h. Entering by Santo Domingo, exiting by Monte Cristi on the northwest.
1984. Lili. 118 km/h. Entering by Barahona existing by Jimani on the west.
1987. Emily. 220 km/h. Entering by Azua exiting by Restauracion in the middle of the island to the west onwards to Haiti.
1996. Hortensia. 148 km/h. Passing by outside of the easterncoast upwards of Samana.
1998. Georges. 170 km/h. Entering via San Pedro de Macoris, exiting via Comendador on the west.
 

SaltyDawg

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Ken said:
Is it time now, SaltyDawg? ......


Yup, Ken - it's time.... I would join you in a heavy session of nail biting but I don't have any left after Ivan and Frances :nervous:

The 8:00pm interim advisory shows Jeanne on her steady path toward PR moving 280-285 degrees at about 10mph. The forecasters think she will go south of PR than up and brush along the north coast of the DR.

They put Jeanne right on the coast around Macao on Thursday morning 2:00am. As the storm is blowing about 65mph sustained winds currently, and projected to maintain this strength, the coast is in for some heavy weather, winds over 50mph and rain.

Then they have her moving up the coast and moving past the Samana peninsula - maybe within 20 miles or so. Also heavy winds and rain.

Then, at 2:00 pm on Thursday passing within 10 miles of Cabo Frances Viejo. Looks like Nagua is in for it again.

Then about 2:00am Friday passing about 50 miles north of Puerto Plata. At this distance there would be rain and 30-40 mph winds and heavy surf.

After that Jeane is forecast to continue northwest and 12 hours later will be about 100-120 miles north of Monte Cristi.

However, as always, the land mass of Hispaniola tends to push storms off shore when the come close (remember Frances?) And we still need to watch what Jeanne does with PR.

On this one, it is definitely time to be ready to be ready where the forecast land falls are. Check the Huricane FAQ's in this forum.

btw Delores, here's a good history chart:

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200411_climo.html
 
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Chris

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Oct 21, 2002
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SaltyDawg said:
Yup, Ken - it's time.... I would join you in a heavy session of nail biting but I don't have any left after Ivan and Frances :nervous:
btw Delores, here's a good history chart:

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200411_climo.html

Dear Mr SaltyDawg - thank you for your weather information, but, there is one important thing - Hurricane or no Hurricane, you need to learn to spell the boss's name right! It is Dolores, not Delores!

Again, thanks for your information. What are we to do on the north coast and when is it time to start preparing for a doozy of a storm?

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN COASTS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC FROM CABRERA SOUTHWARD TO SANTO DOMINGO.
 
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DaveinNY

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Jul 9, 2004
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11pm Map

The 11pm NOAA map shows it tracking away from the North Coast and Hispaniola altogether.

Track Image

Great news if you're going to POP on the 21st....like me
 
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