in retrospect, it would be easy to criticise those people who predicted 100-1....80-1, or even 60-1.
they would now be called 'doom and gloom' boys or something similar.......but the ones who do criticise know just as little.
i know people that were predicting the exchange rate to reach 100-1 in the early 90's.....it didnt happen......and for most of us it doesn't matter now.
the truth is nobody knows (anyone who says he does is talking, like you say, utter nonsense) and the only thing i can say for certainty is that the exchange rate tomorrow (and tomorrow only) will be close to 38:1.