Metro defenders - answer these questions please

Chirimoya

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Let's dream for a moment and imagine that this is something other than a cash-cow for corrupt officials.

I have some questions that may seem obvious to most, but they clearly need to be asked, because so far I haven't seen any convincing answers.

It's easy to say the Metro will alleviate traffic problems: but I would like to hear people explain how exactly this will happen.

- Is it aimed at people who already take public transport - conchos and guaguas?

If the answer is yes - that would be good, to eliminate those vehicles from the roads, but it's not that simple.

- Remember that no government has really had the guts to confront the transport unions - so what happens there?

- There were murmurs about giving union members jobs in the metro, but is that realistic?

- Will the cost of a ticket be competitive enough for non-car owners (existing public transport users) to choose the metro?

- Will the government have to subsidise the cost? Is the government able to do this?


(Remember that most if not all similar systems depend on subsidies - why should it be different here?)

- If the answer to any of the above is no, then what's the benefit going to be?

- Has the government done any studies on car-ownership patterns in the target commuter neighbourhoods? Any public surveys?

- Why was Villa Mella selected?

- Will car-owners from Villa Mella leave their cars at home and take the Metro instead?

- Why have they skipped the preliminary geological/structural investigation stage?


And the most obvious:

- What about the power cuts?

- Even if there were a convincing case for a mass-transit system, and I agree that there is - why has the most expensive option been chosen - an underground railway, with all the risks it entails in the light of the erratic power situation, the structural issues and geological risks?

Come on, let's have some qualified answers, and please keep them in the DR context.
 

Se?or_Jimenez

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You guys miss the point. Besides all the transportation issues that this will hopefully alleviate, its mostly about prestige. MODERNIZING the country. You think all that construction of all those modern towers along the Malecon and other areas is just for fun? ALL Economic indicators point to the fact that Santo Domingo's economy is getting better and better each year and will continue to do so. AS I said in the other thread LONG TERM. The metro will take YEARS to be fully operatable and accessbile for the masses. If you look at what's happening to the economy, by the time it's finally completed, the government (hopefully) will have the resources for the required subsidies. The question below however, is VERY valid.

Chirimoya said:
Let's dream for a moment and imagine that this is something other than a cash-cow for corrupt officials.

- What about the power cuts?

- Even if there were a convincing case for a mass-transit system, and I agree that there is - why has the most expensive option been chosen - an underground railway, with all the risks it entails in the light of the erratic power situation, the structural issues and geological risks?

Come on, let's have some qualified answers, and please keep them in the DR context.

As we speak there are daily negotiations about the future of the country's electricity sector which is among the most closely nitted and corrupt of all. An adminstration is never remembered in the present, they're remembered for the steps they took to send the country into prosperity. Although the metro faces many challenges, its no different than the challenges faced after Hippo. Can you recall for a moment as to the economic disaster this peasant caused to the country? We can continue pointing out the negatives and the positives of the project, but the only thing that will determine if this is a success is time and only that.
 

Chirimoya

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That's just more empty rhetoric, which is not enough for anyone to base a minor business decision, let alone a multi-billion one like the metro. Next please!
 

HOWMAR

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Se?or_Jimenez said:
You guys miss the point. Besides all the transportation issues that this will hopefully alleviate, its mostly about prestige. MODERNIZING the country. You think all that construction of all those modern towers along the Malecon and other areas is just for fun? ALL Economic indicators point to the fact that Santo Domingo's economy is getting better and better each year and will continue to do so. AS I said in the other thread LONG TERM. The metro will take YEARS to be fully operatable and accessbile for the masses. If you look at what's happening to the economy, by the time it's finally completed, the government (hopefully) will have the resources for the required subsidies. The question below however, is VERY valid.



As we speak there are daily negotiations about the future of the country's electricity sector which is among the most closely nitted and corrupt of all. An adminstration is never remembered in the present, they're remembered for the steps they took to send the country into prosperity. Although the metro faces many challenges, its no different than the challenges faced after Hippo. Can you recall for a moment as to the economic disaster this peasant caused to the country? We can continue pointing out the negatives and the positives of the project, but the only thing that will determine if this is a success is time and only that.

And you're the guy that posted the following?

Se?or_Jimenez said:
This so-called "Metro" will without a doubt be one of the most ridiculous and corruption infested projects ever to be initiated. I believe in America they call them "Pork Barrels."

Just wait and watch how many more BMW's, Benz's, Jeepetas, will be patrolling up and down the Malecon in the next few months to come. It'll surely help keep Santo Domingo as the top demographic in Latin America with the most Mercedes per capita.....oh well.
You might have a future in Dominican politics. The ability to play both sides of an issue.
 

Se?or_Jimenez

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What I BELIEVE is completely different from the REALISTIC long-term goals. BTW in the passage I meant to write "ridiculously inflated.."

In reality ALL large scale, multi sub-contracted out government projects are cork barrels. I've seen financials of government projects in Listin Diario and from private aquaintances and you cannot convince me otherwise. This is true everywhere in the world.

Back to the Metro as an impartial observer... From a government point of view it's an opportunity to meet the needs and demands of 21st century Santo Domingo. A city with over 500 years of history, and a gorwing economy that with assute business skills and strategic location in the caribbean, has lots and lots of potential. However, I know a few politicians and they are more interested in press coverage and sharing their grandiouse plans than thinking about the logistics and complexities and the economic burdens these ideas will cost. What do I REALLY think? Not much because I really like speeding my Range Rover over there.

But a quick dose of reality. NONE of you, not one of you has any power to stop or change this project. You can say this and say that, but in reality it just sounds like bla bla bla bla. The adminstration has made up its mind and it has also made its bed. Now it must lay in it. But how cool would it be to be underground in the caribbean, in the oldest city in the west?
 

bienamor

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Depends

Se?or_Jimenez said:
But how cool would it be to be underground in the caribbean, in the oldest city in the west?


are the lights on or off? If the latter you may be there a while. you know until that part of the city gets power back 4hr's-8hr's.
 

Texas Bill

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Another slant---

Not being intimately familiar with the Santo Domingo street orientation, the begining and ending points of the Metro, I really hesitate to comment on the system, good or bad, insofar as it's feasability to solve the transportation in the long run ( or, the short run for that matter).
Will someone please enlighten me as to WHERE the "begining" and the "ending" points are ( X-street, city map coordinates, or whatever.) ?
From such as that, it would/will be easy to plot out the locvation of government offices, Malls, Theaters, Supermercados, Etc., etc. Then, and only then can one identify whether or not such a system will truly benefit the society that needs it. Location of intermediate terminal/transfer points will make a huge difference in conveniences to the using public. Are these identified?
So, in order to make an intelligent "observation", one needs to have a great deal of substantive information---which we don't have at present--or, at least I can't find any.
Did I take my "dumb pills" this AM? No, but maybe I should use that as an excuse.
I'll be looking for some replys and alittle direction before posting again on the subject. Otherwise I might go off on a tangent and ruin the begining.

Texas Bill
 

Dolores1

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Villa Mella-Maximo Gomez was chosen because at that point the distance is the shortest north-south.

The power plant that will have to be purchased and installed for the metro is not contemplated in the original budget Diandino Pe?a has been using for the metro. That is a different project.
 

macocael

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Well se?or Jimenez has no credibility that I can see, given the nature of his postings. He may not be a sock puppet, but he could have multiple personalities. Or maybe Howmar is right, he is a politico in training. Given the way the parties are dividing up and multiplying these days, he is right in tune with the times.

The Metro is a boondoggle (love that word), and I would have preferred to see something along the lines of what the ex-mayor of Bogot? was recommending: revamp the bus system and spend the surplus money on greening the city, which could really use it.

But this thing was inevitable. I dont believe the island off the malecon was a dodge in order to ensure passage of the metro; I think they were serious about both. This is typical of Leonel's administrations: urban development, modernization, grand projects. Some of these are quite good: though the elevated pedestrian bridges around the major intersections along the Gomez were and still are criticized by many, the fact is they constituted a sound develpment. But these projects we are discussing here are of another order altogether.

I almost find myself in agreement with some of the points raised by NALS in the previous thread, and I happen to agree with Jimenez that prestige is probably a motive force behind the metro, though it is an empty prestige that could well end up being a laughing stock. The Faro is one such boondoggle. But there are too many unanswered questions as chiri points out.

Will the Metro clear up traffic along that North/South axis? I think not. The conchistas (there are no motoconchistas in the capital that I know of, Jimenez) will not be superannuated or absorbed in any way. They will continue to ply their route. ( I dont blame them either. If you take away their jobs, what do you expect them to do? That taped up toyota is the only thing keeping the conchista and his family alive.)

Will Car owners along that route leave their cars at home? I suppose we will have to wait and see, but I am guessing they will not. People here do not spend (or borrow) ridiculous sums of money to drive yipetas just so they can travel from A to B. The car is a powerful status symbol here, and they arent going to give it up for the metro. They may enjoy the novelty of the thing for a ride or two, but that is all. Will poorer types be persuaded to use the service? Possibly, if the price is right and the service is viable. I would if the service were viable. Which leads to the next question:

Is the service viable? Will it be able to function in spite of electric outages and the general lack of maintenance one finds here? I think not. Even NY's famed subway system, which is many times bigger of course, is constantly under repair, underfinanced, undermanned, filthy, sometimes unsafe, and often inefficient. I owned a car in NY. As time went by, I found myself using it more and more instead of the public transport, because in fact I was able to get around more easily with my car. Are we going to be able to do any better here?

now let's talk about modernization in general and what is meant by the term. Certainly in the space of two administrations, Leonel and his gang have been able to rebuild the city in many ways, change its skyline, clean it up too a little bit, and in general "modernize" things. But only in an outward manner. Here is a little story from DR1.com that sums up our forward progress very nicely:

A tough look at high school grads
Educational quality is one of the benchmarks of development, and a recent study of Dominican high school graduates has many people shaking their heads. Of the 11,839 new freshmen at seven universities around the country most scored very low on a general test of skills in Spanish, Mathematics, and Science. According to data offered by the Ministry of Higher Education, Science and Technology (SEESCYT), students averaged 3.52 in Social Studies, 3.62 in Science and 4.06 in Math, all on a scale of 10. The test of Academic Guidance and Measures (POMA) was given to students entering the Autonomous University of Santo Domingo (UASD) and six other universities between May and December last year. These universities were INTEC, UNAPEC, UAPA, UNICDA, the Salom? Ure?a Teacher Training Institute, and ITECO. Minister of Higher Education Ligia Amada Melo told reporters from the various newspapers that “60% of the subjects showed deficiencies in relation to what a student needs in order to fulfill a higher education degree.” Reading comprehension was one of the lower scoring parts in the test with an over-all average of 4.32 on a scale of 10. Most students did better in the parts of the test that reflected things like maturity where the average was 5.63 out of 10.

Sorry, but we have to draw the conclusion from this that our "modernization," our progress, as touted by Jimenez is a complete sham. The population cant read, cant do their math, are unfit in the sciences, and dont know anything about the world. You cannot have real progress until you address these problems, and unfortunately the current administration saw fit to renege on its promises to invest in education.

In effect, we not only have a boondoggle but it looks like things are intended to pan out like this, as an uneducated population is powerless to stop it or do anything at all. The States has just as many boondoggles, but they also have citizen watchdog groups, grassroots organizers and a host of others who dedicate themselves to fighting these things. That does not really exist here yet, and one reason is the lack of education.
 
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NALs

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Chirimoya said:
- Is it aimed at people who already take public transport - conchos and guaguas?
This is aimed to everyone who lives and/or visits the city and wishes to travel from one end of town to the other in a much faster manner than is currently possible.

So yes, it's aimed at users of the current public transport system, if it could be called that.

Chirimoya said:
If the answer is yes - that would be good, to eliminate those vehicles from the roads, but it's not that simple.
Yes, it will be good and, of course, its not a simple process. However, even things that are not simple have solutions.

Chirimoya said:
- Remember that no government has really had the guts to confront the transport unions - so what happens there?
Transport unions have already attempted to struck this project to the ground and they have not succeeded.

The alternative is for them to negotiate with the authorities and come to new conclusions and agreements regarding public transport.

Chirimoya said:
- There were murmurs about giving union members jobs in the metro, but is that realistic?
It's realistic to a certain point. A metro system will require less employees than the current union has as members, so obviously all union members will not be employed.

However, the most influential union members will most likely be offered some of the best positions the metro project will create and, as is usually the case, they will most likely accept them.

The metro will not put every single current public transport union member out of work, because the metro will not eliminate the entire fleet of publicos and guaguas. What it will do is alleviate the demand for such inefficient transport system, but not completely destroy it. Thus, many members will continue to have their current jobs, even after the first metro lines have been completed.

Chirimoya said:
- Will the cost of a ticket be competitive enough for non-car owners (existing public transport users) to choose the metro?
This depends on several factors, among them the cost of operating an existing public transport vehicle vs. operating a metro.

One of the biggest expenses current public transport vehicles have is petroleum and all indications are that petroleum prices will continue to increase for the time being.

Competitiveness is not just calculated in pure monetary terms, but also in other forms such as time, efficiency, etc. People often are willing to pay a premium for better service of the same thing. In this case, a metro will undoubtedly transport a person from one end of town to the other in a much quicker and safer way. Thus, assuming the price of a concho or guagua and the price of a metro are the same, the result will be an increase in metro ridership up until the amount of time it takes to load/unload and transport people via the metro equalizes the amount of time it takes to cover the same trayectory via the current transport system.

Even if the cost of riding a metro is slightly higher than it is for a concho or guagua, the speed (ie. efficiency) will still make the metro much more attractive to commuters of all kinds. They will be able to criss cross the city much faster and thus, be able to do whatever they planned to do as quickly as possible.

Think of the current system of air conditioned public buses and the non-air conditioned public buses (both are part of OMSA). The a/c buses are more expensive than the non-a/c buses, but the a/c buses continue to attract a significant number of commuters, despite the higher cost of ridership. Of course, this is not a fair example, because the difference between an a/c bus and a non-a/c bus is that one offers a luxury the other does not. There is little increase in efficiency in criss crossing the city on either bus, thus choosing one bus over the other is simply the result of which bus is closer to the bus stop the potential rider is located and whether he/she wants to sweat or not along the way.

With the metro, the benefit comes in shorter transport time, thus choosing a metro over a bus is much more obvious and real than is the difference between an a/c bus and a non-a/c bus. Having said this, a person who uses an a/c bus will be less tired than a person who uses the non-a/c buses and thus, that person's quality of life has been improved, even if its marginally.

Any improvement is better than none.

Chirimoya said:

- Will the government have to subsidise the cost? Is the government able to do this?
There will be some subsidizing of the cost of this project until the population of the city has grown to levels that would cause enough ridership to produce a profit or breakeven. Such subsidies will be more than justified via an increase in sales tax receipt, as more and more people will do more economic oriented activities that they otherwise would have procrastinated due to the time and effort it currently takes to criss cross the city. This is where the most benefit of this project will be seen.

Is the government able to do this? I think it has a better chance than before. In previous years, the government had subsidies covering many basic necessities the poor uses on a daily basis. Many of those subsidies were eliminated as part of the IMF/World Bank budget balancing and opening of the economy plan. Such conditionalities need to be put in place prior to any disbursement of loan. BTW, the average nation has around 160 conditionalities to implement, each and every time a loan is being taken from the IMF. Sometimes governments are allowed to keep some subsidies, if the government pleades with the IMF, as the Leonel administration did last autumn refusing to eliminate the subsidy on cooking gas because it will adversly affect the livelyhood of too many people. Sometimes the IMF allows such thing, but its rarely.

However, one of the subsidies that governments are allowed to carry are subsidies on efficient transportation (ie. a metro) and those subsidies the DR government has eliminated over the year at the request of the IMF can be re-implemented into this project.

Chirimoya said:
- 1. Has the government done any studies on car-ownership patterns in the target commuter neighbourhoods? Any public surveys?

- 2. Why was Villa Mella selected?

- 3. Will car-owners from Villa Mella leave their cars at home and take the Metro instead?

- 4. Why have they skipped the preliminary geological/structural investigation stage?
1. I am not sure on this, however given the neighborhoods being connected with the first lines of the metro, it's obvious that the government is trying to connect poorer neighborhoods (where many employees lives) with their places of work in the central part of the city.

2. I think answer to question 1 gives a slight insight as to why.

3. Many car owners, particularly from the poorer sectors, double as conchos. Most people depend on public transport, thus most are not car owners. The few who are car owners will most likely not leave their cars at home, unless the cost of driving a car becomes more expensive than it would to take a metro on a weekly, monthly, even yearly basis. Taking a metro means no purchasing of gasoline or diesel. As the price of such commodity increases on the commodities market and at the gas pumps, the attraction of a metro will become even more appealing to the average person.

4. It's not clear if they have skipped such investigations or if such investigations have simply not been made public yet. Of course, the media is quick to give the impression that such investigations have not been made yet, but let's not forget that the media lives from the sales of newspapers and/or advertising space. The more people read their papers, the more value their advertising has and in this modern day and age, speculation and fear far outsells good news.

Chirimoya said:
- What about the power cuts?
From the first public statement about this project, the government officials have reiterated that the metro will include its own independent electrical production.

The media has forgotten to include this in their reporting, except on the first report when the news was made public last year. Again, advertising space is highly lucrative and the more papers are read, the more value their advertisement has.

Chirimoya said:
- Even if there were a convincing case for a mass-transit system, and I agree that there is - why has the most expensive option been chosen - an underground railway, with all the risks it entails in the light of the erratic power situation, the structural issues and geological risks?
This is something that should be asked to the authorities directly.

The only reason I can think of is to produce the least amount of interference to current traffic patterns along its main routes, given that the metro will be built along the main arteries of the city. Additionally, a metro (ie. underground) can run much faster than a monorail or above ground train, thus allowing for the greatest decrease in transaction cost in urban travel.

-NALs
 
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Chirimoya

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Nals, that's a little more like it, but still not enough to convince me.

These points in particular:

Transport unions - won't the real test come (if and) when the metro is up and running?

Cost of ticket for lower-income passengers - Most people in Villa Mella are poor/lower middle class. They may be willing to pay a premium, but are they able? How much would a ticket cost in comparison to the concho/guagua fare?

No preliminary investigations - If the government had really carried out the studies wouldn't they have come out and said so, instead of ignoring the accusations and evading the question?

Power problems - why should the metro's own electrical generator be miraculously immune to the problems dogging electricity generation in the country in general?

macocael's viewpoint is much more on the lines of my thinking, but you won't be surprised to hear that.
 

macocael

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NALS, as in your previous posts for this thread I find a lot of what you say quite persuasive, but I am puzzled over a couple points:

the elimination of the concho traffic, for one. Of course, the metro will not eliminate concho traffic in the city, that was never intended, but what I want to know is whether it is intended to eliminate the route along this particular North/South axis. I may have missed it, but I dont think I saw any clear explanation of this in your analysis. The point is, I guess, will the route officially be closed, or does the govt think that the people will "vote" with their transfer to the new system and thereby decrease concho ridership to the point where it will be unprofitable to maintain this route. I am guessing the latter, and I am guessing that the outcome will be somewhat different.

second, it is true that the planners and executors of this thing have not advertised sufficiently that the train would have its own independent source of power. But just how is this to work? They will still depend ultimately on the system of circuits, substations and power stations, will they not, and if so how can they escape the outages? Maintenance too seems a problem, just judging from my experiences here and in NYC. But there are small systems like this in other developing nations that are models of cleanliness and efficiency.

I agree with you on the issue of "competitiveness" and pricing-- all of what you say there is a possible scenario. I have to say that in a way I hope your scenario rather than mine proves to be realized in the future.
 

Mirador

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Nals, your ability to spew such a seemingly seamless string of sophisticated sophistry, masterfully using fabricated facts, false assumptions, faulty logic, and unsupported rationalizations, proves that you are indeed an artist. Now put some numbers supportive of your conclusions, and show us that you are also an economist...
 

Se?or_Jimenez

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Facts On The Metro

It is evident to me that the majority of you know nothing about the project, but you sure do seem to have a vendetta against it. Here are THE FACTS:

The government plans on building 10 kilometers of an underground metro. The price is estimated to be US$326.6 millones. It will begin on the bridge of the R?o Isabela, in the most nothern section of M?ximo G?mez, and will end in el Centro de los H?roes. It will have 11 stations and will be 13 meters below ground on the M?ximo G?mez from the Isablea river until calle Correa y Cidr?n, where it will go west and then south towards la avenida Jim?nez Moya. These are the proposed locations all which will be near Rio Isabela on the corners of Nicol?s de Ovando, el Cementerio, la Pe?a Batlle, la John Kennedy, la 27 de febrero, el Teatro Nacional, la secretar?a de Educaci?n, la correa y Cidr?n, la Alma Mater, la Abraham Lincoln, la Jim?nez Moya, Centro de los H?roes, and finally, la avenida Independencia.

The allocated costs for the project are as follows: $125.3 Million US for the internal systems, 99.46 Million in tunnels, $83.36 million in stations and another $13 Million in ancillary costs. EACH station will have back-up power. (Dominicans complain when the lights go out for a few hours, imagine underground.) BEcause the IMF and various banks and unknown money men are involved it is subsidised to a degree and will save the economy $376.8 million US dollars.

To critics who wonder WHT NOT A MONORAIL or BUSES and similar means? A monorail is not feasible because it would limit future expansions of the routes where the strategic location of the project would benifit everyone. ANother factor is that from la 27 de Febrero, the corridor along it makes an intersection on an elevated system much, much, much, more expensive as the digging that must be done drives the costs to inpractible in economic terms to end the route at el Centro de Los H?roes.

AND HERE'S A FACT I HOPE WILL SHUT UP ALL THE CRITICS OF THE PROJECT.

The past Dominican governments have already spent 700 Million buying buses and mini-vans, ALL of which has proved to be a dramatic failure, hence this new proposal. The future costs and matinence of these vechiles by the way, is extraordinary when you factor in the personnel and gasoline costs. Add to this the fact that the country is TRYING to be less petroleum dependent.

I know I said it may be a bit of a cork barrel, but the LONG-TERM investment is definitely worth it when you read the facts and not the hype. My godfather just called me and we had an off-the record discussion on it. DEFINITELY worth it, and it is well planned. You have to believe the facts and not the hype.
 

Se?or_Jimenez

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BTW...Villa Mella

YOu information on Villa Mella is WRONG WRONG WRONG. It may SOMEDAY reach Villa Mella. IT is not currently planned.
 

macocael

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would be wouldnt he -- that is why he drives a land rover along the route, and will continue to do so once the train is operating. Sort of my point all along.

And these would be the facts from the horse's mouth? These were advertised all along, this is the official story. I wonder why I am moved to doubt? Notice that none of the facts address the problems or questions we raised? Each station will have backup power -- and that means what exactly ? I didnt ask about the costs, we all know the projected figures and we all know there will be huge cost overruns, bribes, etc. Fine, actually that doesnt bother me much. I also didnt ask about the tunnel vs. monorail. And finally as for the money spent by past govts on the buses and minibuses, this also has nothing to do with the proposal I mentioned regarding a restructuring and improvement of the OMSA line. All of what you mentioned here was part of the past administration's kowtowing to the informal public system of transport, the Renove scandal, not OMSA. And as NYC has recently shown, busses can in fact be quite efficient both in terms of petroleum usage and in terms of air pollution. Will the train system -- and this is not rhetorical, it is an honest question -- will the train cut down on pollutants (it ought to) and conserve oil (that is not certain)?
 

Se?or_Jimenez

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On Subisidies...

The government will subsidise the project which will make the per-ride costs between 5 to 10 PESOS. That means it is way cheaper than the average public transportation costs on the international level which ranges between 1-2 US DOLLARS. The subsidation of the OSMA line costs the governemnt 80 million Pesos monthly.

Now, to be fair, the only way that this will truely be worth financially is if the project doesn't face huge overruns and MOST importantly, if the international loan can be aquired for interest rates between 4 and 5 percent.