2006 Hurricane Season May Be Worse than 2005

Dr. William Grey, the hurricane expert from Colorado, was interviewed on CNN today. He said that as of now they are reporting more names storms, more hurrcanes, and more severe hurricanes than ever before this early. A very active 2006 season is expected and may be worse than 2005.

He and others said that we are in the 11th year of a weather cycle that may continue for another 20 years. Dr. Grey said we (meaning the US) were very lucky the first 9 years and very unlucky the last two.

One reason why the storms are getting stronger is because the ocean temperature has been increasing. They said it is now 1 degree warmer than in 1975. Warm water helps hurricanes to increase in strength.

As to why the ocean is getting warmer, there was no agreement. Dr. Grey said it is part of the weather cycles that we have always had. Another scientist said it was due to global warming. But everyone agreed that regardless of the cause, the fact ocean is warmer means storms will be more severe.

Rocky said:

Thanks for the info, Ken, albeit bad news.
Of course, the good news is that Sosua never seems to get hit at hurricane force, at least, in the years I have lived here, the worse I have seen is tropical storm level.
I do believe you have lived here longer, Ken.
Have you ever seen one in Sosua?

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I've only been in Sosua for 5+ years. Most of my time in the country was in Samana, and we had a couple of hurricanes that affected that area.

It is true that Sosua is off the normal path taken by the storms. Before they get to Sosua, they have usually headed toward the Bahamas and the US.

Chris said:

Ken I believe the Klotzbach & Grey next formal update will be out on April 4th. In the meantime, I've consulted the Psychics and Mediums Network online forum. They suggest a lower count than last year.

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Sounds familiar. We had this same debate last year, and about this same time, as I recall. I would have to go back into the archives to retrieve that thread to see just when it was. But GreY was forecasting a bad season and your sources were forecasting a relatively mild season. Score 1 for Dr. Grey. At the end of this season, we will see if he is 1 and 1, or 2 and 0. My guess is it will be the latter, because all the experts agree the ocean is warmer and that warmer water means more storms.

laurapasinifan said:

is there aplace on theisland that traditionally gets hits the hardest during most hurricanes?

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One area of the DR that seems to get hit at least once every year is the Barahona area. Storms go ashore there, cross the island on an angle, and exit into the Atlantic, where they often regain strength.

But your question is about "hits the hardest during most hurricanes". Most hurricanes and tropical don't hit the DR, only a very small percentage do. And for storms that might affect the DR, it is more common that we get winds of less than maximum force because the storm is passing offshore. In those cases, the flooding caused by the rain does more damage than the wind.