Hurricane Forecast Schedule

Thanks Ken. I guess it is getting to the time where we have to take the collective lessons learnt from last year and start updating our documentation. We've had such a brilliant winter generally that hurricane season still seems quite far away :ermm:

Tomorrow is an Important Day!

Tomorrow is an important day for us that watch storms. We will have the all important Klotzbach and Gray updated forecasts for this year's hurricane season. You may all remember that last year we even ran out of names and ran knee-deep into the Greek Alphabet. 2005 broke all records with:
27 - named storms (tropical storms)
14 - strengthened to hurricanes and
7 - to major hurricanes (Category 3 status or greater).

The 50 year average from 1950 to 2000 is
9.6 - named storms with,
5.9 - strengthening to hurricanes and
2.3 - becoming major hurricanes.

In December 2005, Klotzbach and Gray gave their forecast for 2006 as well above average:
17 - named storms,
9 - of which 9 will become hurricanes and
5 - will develop into major hurricanes.

Let's wait for tomorrow to see what the experts say and how they adjust their forecast numbers. This event is usually our cue to start updating our hurricane literature here on DR1.

The Global Warming / Long Duration Seasonal Pattern debate is still going on in terms of what is causing the dramatic rise in hurricanes, and generally the changes in weather patterns that we've seen over the past few years.

Just for fun, (and to mess a little with Ken), here are the Psychic Predictions
2006 hurricane season will be very busy with 18 named storms.
The 1st storm will arrive 2 weeks before the official start of the hurricane season. And then they go on to predict damage to the Statue of Liberty in New York because of a hurricane. I wonder if they will give an updated forecast tomorrow as well (perhaps just after the Klotzbach & Gray forecast

hey Ken the hudson river is one of my stomping grounds for duck hunting. i go out all winter there. I will say that those high hills on the side of the river make for some wicked winds whipping up and down the river!!! they get channeled, and when they stack up the against the tide, it can get really rough. But i guess if you got to be in the water, you got to be someplace... and getting up river away from the big blow might have been the best idea.

what town did you anchor in????

bob

Not sure where to put this

...but Ken posted this years names above, so goodbye Katrina

The last sentence is a bit chilling.

According to a link on the page, Jeanne is retired also.

Global warming is our biggest threat to increasing the size and intensity of hurricanes. Just 1/2 to 1 degree of ocean temperature warming means a major difference in the size and intensity of storms, as they grow expodentially with seemingly small ocean-surface temperature changes. And already the Greenland ice cap has dramatically shrunk and ice earthquakes causing big chunks of polar ice to break off the main sheet and then melt as they drift south are becomming much more prevalent. All this is occuring much more rapidly than predicted and will cause catastrophic changes to our weather in less than 100years unless something is done now. Already sea levels are rising measurably (Florida is "sinking" at the rate of about an inch every 50 years) and coupled with surface temperature increases spells MAJOR problems with hurricanes. And the DR connection? Costanza will become an oceanfront resort when it happens.

I won't see much difference other than a few more and bigger, more intense hurricanes than I've already experienced in my lifetime (as I'm 62 years old now), but the way things are going my 1 year old grandson is going to have a mess on his hands.

Dr Gray discounts the global warming theory as to why hurricanes are intensifying and why we are seeing many more storms. He is more of the opinion that it is long-term global weather patterns - and quite normal over long periods of time.

I really do not know yet where I personally stand on this matter. I believe global warming is a fact and a real issue today. I also believe that the issues around global warming may perhaps be 'downplayed' by the cadre of scientists that have a government involvement of some kind, in some countries. There are many independent voices now testifying to this fact. There is much more scientific evidence needed before I can personally say that I believe that the strange weather patterns we've been seeing, is as a direct result of global warming. Dr Gray seems to think that global warming is not as serious as what it is made out to be.

If you're interested in this, Gray did a presentation titled 'Global warming and hurricanes' at the March 2006 Bahamas weather conference. You can find the presentation papers here http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Documents/Presentations

Here is an update on the Global Warming issue that I posted in environment http://www.dr1.com/forums/showthread.php?p=393492#post393492