New Hurricane Forecast by Dr. Gray

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Ken

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Jan 1, 2002
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Drs. Gray and Klotzbach, the hurricane specialists from Colorado State Unviversity, have issued their latest forecast for the 2006 hurricane season. Not a great deal of difference between the forecast issued in December.

Predicted are 17 named storms, 9 of them hurricanes, with 5 of the 9 being Catagory 3 or higher.

Regarding the US, which suffered so much damage last year, they think the 2006 season will be much kinder.

Looking ahead, they say that the hurricane seasons will continue to be active for maybe the next 20 years, but that it is statistically unlikely there will be anothr season as bad as last year.

Their next pre-season forecasst will be issued May 31.
 
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apdomini100max

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Jun 5, 2004
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Does this mean that now it will be the Carribean's turn to be smacked by hurricanes? Luckly enough the Carribean has been speard for a few years of Hurricanes and we should fear that this trend will start again.
 
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rellosk

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Mar 18, 2002
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Ken said:
Looking ahead, they say that the hurricane seasons will continue to be active for maybe the next 20 years, but that it is statistically unlikely there will be anothr season as bad as last year.
Click to expand...
Let's hope they are more accurate in their estimate for 2006 then they were in 2005.
 
K

Ken

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apdomini100max said:
Does this mean that now it will be the Carribean's turn to be smacked by hurricanes? Luckly enough the Carribean has been speard for a few years of Hurricanes and we should fear that this trend will start again.
Click to expand...

That has me wondering, too. If not the US, where besides the Caribbean? Sounds like it may be our turn in the barrel.
 
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Chris

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Oct 21, 2002
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I've been going through the forecast to see if there is any mention of the Caribbean, but they kinda end at the end of the Gulf of Mexico. I think the US coastline is vast, compared to individual Caribbean Islands, so, it must be much much more difficult to come up with a forecast of landfalling hurricanes for a specific island. The Caribbean Hurricane Network at http://stormcarib.com/ has done some good work gathering together all the statistics for the different islands for those of you who like to look at statistics. For the DR, I'm trying to figure out the difference in hurricane numbers in the Punta Cana area, vs Santo Domingo, but my counts keep screwing up (something to do with attention span I guess ;) .

For anyone wanting to sift through the technical details, here is the full Klotzbach and Gray report http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2006/april2006/

And we will be seeing seasonal updates on
Wednesday 31 May (to coincide with the official start of the 2006 hurricane season on 1 June),
Thursday 3 August,
Friday 1 September and
Tuesday 3 October 2006.
 
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