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Thread: Current Events In Emerging Markets

  1. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by deelt
    Huh?

    Last time I checked Market Economy works in the field this is why he needs a disclaimer statement. Why are you using one? Are you now fronting as someone who is in DOWS and/or is regulated by the SEC?

    Wow, now you are more expert than the expert. Funny.
    Yes deelt, but Market Economy is not the only person reading these posts.

    While I recognize Market Economy's experience and knowledge in this sphere, I also acknowledge that when I or anyone else post something on the public forum, plenty of other people to whom the post was not directed towards will also read it and perhaps use the info. For this reason, I posted the disclaimer.

    -NALs

  2. #12
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    True enough, but not having a disclaimer hasn't stopped you before, as Scandall would say, from blowing smoke out of your arse.

    The tone and the info are just not tight. But everyone has a right to their opinions. Yes, even you.

    Quote Originally Posted by NALs
    Yes deelt, but Market Economy is not the only person reading these posts.

    While I recognize Market Economy's experience and knowledge in this sphere, I also acknowledge that when I or anyone else post something on the public forum, plenty of other people to whom the post was not directed towards will also read it and perhaps use the info. For this reason, I posted the disclaimer.

    -NALs
    Last edited by deelt; 05-30-2006 at 11:17 PM.

  3. #13
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    Deelt,

    No, not more expert that the experts (and who are they by the way???), but it is a precaution to highlight the fact that DOWS' members are not offering investment advice and that those who read this board should be forewarned that what we post is only our personal opinion.

    That aside, the equities market took a tumble yesterday. Why? Inflation fears?. Peter Bernstein is quote in a great NYT articles where he explains that the recent runup in gold prices is NORMAL. He says follow the GRIM index. Read on.

    Note: This is my personal opinion, an should not constitute investment advice. E-mail me at my personal address if you want to develop a dialogue

  4. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by Market Economy

    That aside, the equities market took a tumble yesterday. Why? Inflation fears?. Peter Bernstein is quote in a great NYT articles where he explains that the recent runup in gold prices is NORMAL. He says follow the GRIM index. Read on.

    Note: This is my personal opinion, an should not constitute investment advice. E-mail me at my personal address if you want to develop a dialogue
    I have yet to read the article, if I get to read it. However, it is "normal" for a spike in gold prices when there are inflationary pressures in the economy.

    There has been inflationary pressures on the US economy since autumn of 2005 and consequently the price of gold has been increasing, as has been expected.

    Following the GRIM index is very good advice, but lets not loose sight of the price of gold because it has almost always been an indicator of inflation either within an economy or anticipated and such circumstances warrants the attention of investors, particularly those holding government bonds.

    For this reason gold can be used as part of a good hedge strategy against the risk of holding bonds in a time of increasing inflationary pressures, which threatens the value of the bond itself.

    This leads me to my answer to your equities market question. Since the price of gold has been on an upswing and an upswing in gold means there are inflation pressures on the economy, then it could very well be that inflation fears are causing the tumbling in equities we have been witnessing lately.

    Keep a keen eye on the price of gold, it tells more than most people give it credit.

    -NALs

  5. #15
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    Nals I see, you are a gold junkie, but I like your reply. Thanks.




    Note: This is my personal opinion, an should not constitute investment advice. E-mail me at my personal address if you want to develop a dialogue

  6. #16
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    I hear you. To me, an expert is some one who is paid to do what they do and is regulated by the SEC. The fact that Cid is #1 (according to Forbes) I would say qualifies him as an expert. But that's my humble opinion. NALs has a history on this website that make his "contribution" suspect, and frankly wordy and just plain time consuming. So tread with care.

    Regarding the article you referenced, I think I have to agree that all the signs are there for a down turn on the US economy, namely the increasing prices of oil and truly fiscal irresponsibility by the Republican lead Bush Administration. (shocking!).

    In light of the never ending Iraq invasion, China's new thirst for oil, we need an expert to lead the economy and has mastered the subject of oil markets. This is an area Bernanke commands. Apparently based on the article, DR-CAFTA is apparantely doing more harm than good to the US, given the severely of the US's trade deficit.

    While I am not adverse to Paulson (ex-Goldman Sachs CEO, worth $700 mill +) leading Treasury, post Snow's resignation, he's a political appointee. Knowing what I know about the Bush Admin, his contribution will be deeply WH driven, as compared with Rubin (Clinton) or O'Neil (GWB, first-term) and other free thinkers who were allowed to do what they do best, allow money to make more money. Bernanke is beyond that despite that fact that he has to know how to play the game.

    Deelt

    PS. The meat of the article you reference is as follows:

    An increase in the value of gold is really the same thing as a decrease in the value of a dollar, relative to the oldest, most solid benchmark of all. And there are plenty of reasons dollars should be losing value. Americans have been sending billions of them overseas to buy other countries' products, causing the world to be awash in dollars. The federal government has been spending much more money than it takes in, and the Federal Reserve pumped the economy full of cash a few years ago to avoid a deep recession.

    There are legitimate reasons, in other words, to wonder if the gold surge is the start of the crisis that economists have long feared. "The gold value of the dollar appears to be going into free fall," two investment strategists recently wrote on The Wall Street Journal's editorial page, long a home for gold worriers. "What we are facing is a money crisis: an alarming outbreak of inflation and all its consequences."

    ...

    When gold is moving with those other materials, it's a sign that basic economic dynamics are at work. Prices rise when the world's economy is growing rapidly, and they fall when there is more supply of the commodities than demand for them.

    But when gold prices spike and prices for other materials do not, Mr. Bernstein says, it means that investors are treating gold as a place to store their money in advance of a crisis. This is precisely what happened in the late 1970's.

    In the last few years, however, the prices of gold and the other commodities have gone up sharply. Computer makers are using copper, airplane manufacturers are buying more aluminum and the rise of India — the world's most gold-crazy country — is increasing the demand for jewelry.

    And because commodity prices actually fell from the late 1980's to 2002, the recent surge has in part been making up for lost ground. The price of gold still hasn't risen as much, in percentage terms, as the price of milk over the last 20 years.

    ...

    There is no question that the trade deficit and budget deficit are real problems, as Mr. Bernstein acknowledges. "All the necessary conditions for a mess are there," he said. The mess itself, however, doesn't seem to have arrived.


    Quote Originally Posted by Market Economy
    Deelt,

    No, not more expert that the experts (and who are they by the way???), but it is a precaution to highlight the fact that DOWS' members are not offering investment advice and that those who read this board should be forewarned that what we post is only our personal opinion.

    That aside, the equities market took a tumble yesterday. Why? Inflation fears?. Peter Bernstein is quote in a great NYT articles where he explains that the recent runup in gold prices is NORMAL. He says follow the GRIM index. Read on.

    Note: This is my personal opinion, an should not constitute investment advice. E-mail me at my personal address if you want to develop a dialogue

  7. #17
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    Market Economy,
    Please pardon the intrusion, but would you mind divulging some of your general educational/professional training & experience?

  8. #18
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    To avoid any confusion, Market Economy is not Cid. Market Economy is one of the moderators. If you look at the sticky:

    The moderators of this forum, which can also be accessed through the
    DOWS website, are Robert Abreu, Emmanuel Martinez, and Josefa Sicard
    Mirabal. See their biographies at http://www.dows.ws

    Given what I know about what each does and their interests, I believe we have been speaking with Robert Abreu.

    But s/he can speak for her/himself and should.

    Quote Originally Posted by mondongo
    Market Economy,
    Please pardon the intrusion, but would you mind divulging some of your general educational/professional training & experience?

  9. #19
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    Market Economy is Emmanuel Martinez.

    This is his background, as posted on the DOWS website:

    Emmanuel Martínez

    Emmanuel Martínez serves currently as Vice President in the Emerging Markets Research group of Bear, Stearns & Co. Inc. In this capacity he monitors the developments that affect the valuation of sovereign and corporate debt for Central America and Caribbean issuers and offers valuable advice to emerging market investors.

    Mr. Martínez began his career in 1996 at AIG Risk Management as a staff accountant in their financial reporting unit. In November 1996 he began working at Goldman Sachs & Co.’s NY Treasury Operations department. In March 2000 he transferred to Goldman Sachs Asset Management (GSAM) to work as a Portfolio Administrator in the GS Private Equity Funds. Through Feb 2004 Mr. Martínez worked as an Associate in the Alternative Investments Group of GSAM concentrating his efforts in the administration duties of a range of marquee products (hedge funds, private equity funds and special situations vehicles) offered by GSAM to governments, high net worth clients, and institutions worldwide.

    Mr. Martínez graduated in 1996 from Bernard M. Baruch College ( CUNY) with a BBA in Accountancy and completed a second BBA in Finance and Investments in 1998.

  10. #20
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    Thanks for the correction.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dolores
    Market Economy is Emmanuel Martinez.

    This is his background, as posted on the DOWS website:

    Emmanuel Martínez

    Emmanuel Martínez serves currently as Vice President in the Emerging Markets Research group of Bear, Stearns & Co. Inc. In this capacity he monitors the developments that affect the valuation of sovereign and corporate debt for Central America and Caribbean issuers and offers valuable advice to emerging market investors.

    Mr. Martínez began his career in 1996 at AIG Risk Management as a staff accountant in their financial reporting unit. In November 1996 he began working at Goldman Sachs & Co.’s NY Treasury Operations department. In March 2000 he transferred to Goldman Sachs Asset Management (GSAM) to work as a Portfolio Administrator in the GS Private Equity Funds. Through Feb 2004 Mr. Martínez worked as an Associate in the Alternative Investments Group of GSAM concentrating his efforts in the administration duties of a range of marquee products (hedge funds, private equity funds and special situations vehicles) offered by GSAM to governments, high net worth clients, and institutions worldwide.

    Mr. Martínez graduated in 1996 from Bernard M. Baruch College ( CUNY) with a BBA in Accountancy and completed a second BBA in Finance and Investments in 1998.

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