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Thread: Possible US crash implications for DR

  1. #21
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    OK, I read it, and it is easy stuff
    Really, I'm familiar with bell curves and the pareto principle - not the underlying math, but as statistical tools. Don't have time to Google the Fat Tail stuff at the moment.

    Are you saying that this is a 'dislocating financial market event'?
    If you are saying that, do you have a further conclusive statement? I'm tempted to ask .. OK, and then?

  2. #22
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    Default Cfc

    Interesting, today one of my mutuals that is heavy into CFC posted up for the first time in two weeks.
    Maybe we have reached the bottom.

  3. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chris View Post
    Are you saying that this is a 'dislocating financial market event'?
    Or is mondongo saying that in between the periods of small changes there are both surges and crashes that wouldn't be predicted by a normal distribution model?

    mondongo, is this the financial markets version of probability theory?

  4. #24
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    With the Dominican currency so closely tied to the US dollar, it may be very interesting when you go to buy a new Toyota. The US Dollar has fallen 10% against the Yen and the slide has not yet abated.
    The Peso has not risen versus the US dollar. I don't check the Peso vs the Yen.

  5. #25
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    Sure sounds like the Global Warming debate in a new venue. Crap wrapped in extrapolative pseudo-science. Just economic Lysenkoism this time.

    Think catastrophes such as Sino-Russo alliance, Japan and China start to dump dollar debt, repatriated dollars suck (as Cramer says) 50% of the value from the dollar and cyper-attacks take down comms on the ground and in space with a single counter-rotating load of buckshot in the vulnerable orbital shells we put up.

    If you're going to do a Henny-Penny you may as well do the real thing, not run around worried about Ivy Leaguers that kited bad loans or idiots who got addicted to junk mail credit cards. Let 'em eat (cake, cards ... whatever).

  6. #26
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    Fed cut the discount rate 1/2 % this morning. Might see a rebound.

  7. #27
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    The Fed cut is a bail-out. The can is kicked down the road. How far???

  8. #28
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    ....
    Quote Originally Posted by pelaut View Post
    The Fed cut is a bail-out.
    Not so.

    "They are not being saved. ... The fed is not buying these bad loans. It is not accepting them as collateral. It is merely injecting cash into a system that is temporarily short of cash. If there are bad loans, the piper will be paid in full."

    "It is an appropriate government response to a well-known market failure, known as collective action problem. That is, if everyone keeps lending to good customers, and rolling over good loans at a somewhat higher rate, then in the end, this thing will get worked out, people will take their haircuts, and markets will reprice all this stuff in an orderly way. But if everyone acts on fear and decides to pull back at the same time, then everyone will wind up worse off. So this is getting everyone to act collectively in their collective best interest, rather than doing what may look to be in their short-term interest but in fact creates a self-fulfilling downward spiral. The interventions help to convince people to act rationally, calmly, and not throw out good assets and good loans with the bad. It prevents everyone from running for the exits at the same time, which can get a lot of innocent people burned." ...
    Last edited by aegap; 08-17-2007 at 01:56 PM.

  9. #29
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    Perhaps pelaut went short on S&P futures.

  10. #30
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    Today's High on The ES was coincidently a 50% fib retracement from the July 17th highs. We need to close above 1470.16 for this "rally" to have any significant legs.

    tambo'

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