Latest Advisories
OK, this is what we have for the official track
and this is what we have for latest model guidance
Plot provided courtesy of Jonathan Vigh, Colorado State University
Here are the highlights ...
-The center is well developed with well defined circulation and 50 to 55 miles per hour winds.
-The center is again slightly north of previous estimates.
-Motion is still West but a little further nudge to West-NorthWestwards is expected as the storm is holding just south of a ridge.
-The storm has slowed down but the models are struggling to agree on the speed of the storm. Official estimates now at 16 miles per hour.
-Easterly shear is beginning to decrease and the environment (sea surface temperatures and winds) is becoming favorable for development of strength.
-The available intensity guidance is bringing Dean to a hurricane in 36 to 48 hours.
-By day five from now, Dean is expected to strengthen to a major hurricane, i.e, minimum cat 3.
As you can see, we're still interpreting data, things are still not fully clear, and for us, the picture has not yet fully formed. It is still an open game and when the storm is closer, we can predict wind fields and make a call as to which area of the DR will be affected and how. South Coast and Punta Cana should be on high alert by now and ready to evacuate if necessary. Pedernales, Barahona, I'd be wide awake if I were in your area. And Haiti, poor Haiti, is anyone awake out there? Anyway, it is still a waiting game.
With the current information that we have, taking into account still a 300% possible error, the storm will be approximately 120 miles South of Santo Domingo late afternoon on Sunday. If this holds true, with the current wind field, the South Coast will experience high storm surge, high tides and winds of only 40 to 45 miles per hour. (A stiff gale and much rain.)
And, to close, I fully expect this to change in the next few days.
Good night!