Council On Hemispheric Affairs DR Summary

Nice, easy to read, hits the 'highlights' without obscuring the 'lowlights' and leaves us with a sense of what some of us instinctively know .. The DR is not by a long shot out of the DooDoo yet. What this does not address, is the external influences. Two biggies .. the fall of the Dollar and the creeping socialization of Latin America.

Very good read Lambada. For me cautionary is the operative feeling of the article. Still with all the economic growth it does not seem to trickle down to the most needy.

A.Hidalgo said:

Very good read Lambada. For me cautionary is the operative feeling of the article. Still with all the economic growth it does not seem to trickle down to the most needy.

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Which is what frustrates the crap out of us that live here & can see the potential of the populace if only the politicians would play fair & give the Dominicans a chance to pull the country up by its shoelaces!!

Its almost as though the 'ADMINISTRATION' (whichever one is in power) is frightened of playing fair for fear of the country being successful!! ~ Grahame.

If the author is from the Dominican familyof the same name, he is a member of the upper 2%.....well educated and well trained to take on the family business or serve in some other capacity...

HB

BushBaby said:

Which is what frustrates the crap out of us that live here & can see the potential of the populace if only the politicians would play fair & give the Dominicans a chance to pull the country up by its shoelaces!!

Its almost as though the 'ADMINISTRATION' (whichever one is in power) is frightened of playing fair for fear of the country being successful!! ~ Grahame.

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For the sake of comparison, understand this.

The only country to every break a historical record on economic growth has been China when it registered growth of 12% a few years ago. No other country in the history of the world has ever had economic growth of over 12% per year.

At that rate, the wealth of a country doubles every six years, but that's at a continuous growth rate of 12%, without fluctuations downwards, which would slow the process.

The Dominican Republic has an average growth rate of 7%, some years its 10% others its less than that, way less in the case of 2003 when it registered -1%. In any case, taking the 7% average, the DR's national wealth doubles every 10 years, hence, every decade with an average of 7% economic growth results in a doubling of national wealth which is measured by GDP.

Current per capita income in the DR in Purchasing Power Parity terms (PPP) is over US$8,000. In ten years from now, if the average economic growth rate remains at 7%, per capita GDP for the DR will increase to what would be the equivalent in todays dollars of US$16,000. Keep in mind, this is assuming that all other variables remain constant.

Its obvious that despite the DR having some of the highest economic growth rate in the world, such rate is still low for the visual dramatic change in such a short time period some people want to see as proof of economic growth. Such dramatic change in such short time period is simply not possible at those high economic growth rates in relative terms. In other words, the economic growth the DR has is considered high because MOST COUNTRIES IN THE WORLD grow at much inferior rates, however even the DR's growth rate is still low to cause the dramatic overnight changes (ie. miracles) some people want as proof of increasing affluence.

Even if some welfare programs were to be put in place, that won't achieve the objective of lifting the standards of living of the poorest of the poor because with a per capita GDP of only US$8,000; there isn't enough wealth in the country to support everyone equally and at the same time give everyone a relatively high standard of living. On top of that, welfare programs tend to negatively affect growth, which means that per capita income would grow even slower and thus, it would take even longer for such welfare programs to effectively increase standards of livings to more comfortable levels for everyone.

In order for this to occur, in order for a welfare state to be able to give all of its citizens a decent living standards, per capita income has to be well over US$20,000. In fact, the only welfare states that work effectively are not countries like Cuba or North Korea where per capita income is well below the US$20,000 mark; it works well in countries like Sweden and Norway where per capita income is well over $20,000.

So folks, give up these socialist ideas because quite frankly, the DR is not yet at a place where some serious social programs can be implemented AND have the results everyone expect. In other words, you can ask for all the social programs you want, the result in terms of standards of living will be mediocre at best for one simple reason everyone keeps ignoring:

THE DR IS STILL TOO POOR JUST LIKE CUBA WAS STILL TOO POOR IN 1959 AND HAS GOTTEN POORER WITH ALL ITS SOCIALISM!

Shared poverty is not desirable in any society, yet that's what socialism in developing countries leads to, albeit the proponents of socialism present a utopia that never has exist, doesn't exist, and quite frankly will never exist.

The only thing those policies in what is essentially a poor country achieve is the complete destruction of the rich and middle classes and quite frankly, anyone who still supports such policies after knowing that it will cause 100% poverty is not truly concerned about the plight of the poor, but rather is an person who simply has envy for those who are successful.

-NALs

Yes, NALS, but that doesn't mean a considerably larger portion of the governments tax income can't be put into the education system, when you consider the amount that is wasted or stolen.

bob saunders said:

Yes, NALS, but that doesn't mean a considerably larger portion of the governments tax income can't be put into the education system, when you consider the amount that is wasted or stolen.

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But the thing is this, the government is increasing its investment on education, in fact the growth in government investment on education has grown from RD$12 billion in 2004 to RD$25 billion this year, that's an increase of over RD$13 billion, the single largest increase in investment on education in the history of the country!

If Leonel keeps increasing the investment on education at the rate he currently is doing, there will be an inevitable improvement in education nationwide over the next few years.

As the debt of the country decreases as a percentage of GDP as it has been occurring since 2004 to today, investment in other more essential things like education, like public health, like public transport, like infrastructure, etc. will inevitably increase.

Source of figures

-NALs

Nal's
I shan't bother copying your two posts into this - takes up far too much bandwidth & is totally irrelevant to the argument I was trying to put across. 'Socialism'??? Who was talking about Socialism? Certainly not ME!!

What I am looking for is
FAIR competition in business (less corruption)
Greater support (less bureaucracy) in start-up ventures & expanding businesses
Incentive schemes to promote entrepreneurs
More experienced/trained teachers for the schooling of the next two generations of businessmen/women
Stable (& sensible) electricity prices with facilities to organise one's own where necessary
Less (MUCH less) skimming off the top of contracts by politicians that are hell bent in lining their own pockets only
Less (like ZERO) money being spent on stupid contracts like 'The Metro' which will only benefit a few & not the majority of the populace
Less politically appointed 'botellas' who just reduce the amount of money available for distribution to businesses
.........
......... The list is extensive & does not include ONE element of Socialism in it!! On the contrary - it is all solid Conservative principles which most governmants in the world try to forget so as to benefit only themselves & their supporters!!

So PLEASE, cut the 'Booklearning' clap trap & come live here for a while. Talk to the bread shops, the small garages, the vendors looking to open up in the new cassetas in Puerto Plata, speak to the owners of the Free Zone businesses .............................. ALL will tell of their frustrations in trying to run a business that the governments keep changing the rues for. Did you hear that the Playa Dorada complex is about to invoke a RD $50 surcharge per tourist bus or delivery van going into the Playa Dorada complex???? What a stupid idea. Discussions requested by the businessmen with the sub secretary of tourism on the North Coast have been declined by that august body!!!

Wanting to discuss things so as to work in the manner suitable to the majority is NOT Socialism Nal's ...... it is COMMON SENSE!! ~ Grahame.

NALs said:

For the sake of comparison, understand this.

The only country to every break a historical record on economic growth has been China when it registered growth of 12% a few years ago. No other country in the history of the world has ever had economic growth of over 12% per year.

At that rate, the wealth of a country doubles every six years, but that's at a continuous growth rate of 12%, without fluctuations downwards, which would slow the process.

The Dominican Republic has an average growth rate of 7%, some years its 10% others its less than that, way less in the case of 2003 when it registered -1%. In any case, taking the 7% average, the DR's national wealth doubles every 10 years, hence, every decade with an average of 7% economic growth results in a doubling of national wealth which is measured by GDP.

Current per capita income in the DR in Purchasing Power Parity terms (PPP) is over US$8,000. In ten years from now, if the average economic growth rate remains at 7%, per capita GDP for the DR will increase to what would be the equivalent in todays dollars of US$16,000. Keep in mind, this is assuming that all other variables remain constant.

Its obvious that despite the DR having some of the highest economic growth rate in the world, such rate is still low for the visual dramatic change in such a short time period some people want to see as proof of economic growth. Such dramatic change in such short time period is simply not possible at those high economic growth rates in relative terms. In other words, the economic growth the DR has is considered high because MOST COUNTRIES IN THE WORLD grow at much inferior rates, however even the DR's growth rate is still low to cause the dramatic overnight changes (ie. miracles) some people want as proof of increasing affluence.

Even if some welfare programs were to be put in place, that won't achieve the objective of lifting the standards of living of the poorest of the poor because with a per capita GDP of only US$8,000; there isn't enough wealth in the country to support everyone equally and at the same time give everyone a relatively high standard of living. On top of that, welfare programs tend to negatively affect growth, which means that per capita income would grow even slower and thus, it would take even longer for such welfare programs to effectively increase standards of livings to more comfortable levels for everyone.

In order for this to occur, in order for a welfare state to be able to give all of its citizens a decent living standards, per capita income has to be well over US$20,000. In fact, the only welfare states that work effectively are not countries like Cuba or North Korea where per capita income is well below the US$20,000 mark; it works well in countries like Sweden and Norway where per capita income is well over $20,000.

So folks, give up these socialist ideas because quite frankly, the DR is not yet at a place where some serious social programs can be implemented AND have the results everyone expect. In other words, you can ask for all the social programs you want, the result in terms of standards of living will be mediocre at best for one simple reason everyone keeps ignoring:

THE DR IS STILL TOO POOR JUST LIKE CUBA WAS STILL TOO POOR IN 1959 AND HAS GOTTEN POORER WITH ALL ITS SOCIALISM!

Shared poverty is not desirable in any society, yet that's what socialism in developing countries leads to, albeit the proponents of socialism present a utopia that never has exist, doesn't exist, and quite frankly will never exist.

The only thing those policies in what is essentially a poor country achieve is the complete destruction of the rich and middle classes and quite frankly, anyone who still supports such policies after knowing that it will cause 100% poverty is not truly concerned about the plight of the poor, but rather is an person who simply has envy for those who are successful.

-NALs

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You are using socialism as a "red herring". The problem in the Dominican Republic is not as complicated as you make it out to be.

In my modest opinion it comes down to lack of transparency, waste, fraud, corruption, sobornos and macuteos among the many "ways" of the Dominican reality.

The only thing those policies in what is essentially a poor country achieve is the complete destruction of the rich and middle classes and quite frankly, anyone who still supports such policies after knowing that it will cause 100% poverty is not truly concerned about the plight of the poor, but rather is an person who simply has envy for those who are successful.

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Quiet frankly this is one the funniest and at the same time ridiculous things I have ever read.

BushBaby said:

FAIR competition in business (less corruption)

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In principle I agree on that one, but only as far as corruption goes. As for 'fair', well... let just say that even if there was less corruption, 'fair competition' would not exist since fair can mean:

A) Every entrepreneur being treated as if all have the same ability to run a business.

or

B) Everyone should have an equal opportunity in starting a business.

Frankly, neither of the two is realistically possible, not even in the most effective economies in the world today.

Competition with little corruption is good and I support, but this 'fair competition' can mean something else that goes contrary to a natural capitalistic system.

BushBaby said:

Greater support (less bureaucracy) in start-up ventures & expanding businesses

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Agree.

BushBaby said:

Incentive schemes to promote entrepreneurs

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Of course, more is always better, but lets not forget that there are some incentive schemes already in place meant to promote entrepreneurship and/or supports businesses.

BushBaby said:

More experienced/trained teachers for the schooling of the next two generations of businessmen/women

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With more investment in education, which is already being increased (see post #8), the quality of the teachers will inevitably increase. Good things takes time.

BushBaby said:

Stable (& sensible) electricity prices with facilities to organise one's own where necessary

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This is currently in the agenda and some positive results are already being witnessing. On highly localized level there are places that no longer suffer power outages, except during maintenance; and on a more national level the number and length of power outages has improved considerably compared to how the situation was not too long ago.

Further attention towards resolving this issue and increasing numbers of customers that agree to pay their bills will result in more stable prices. Again, this is a problem that was decades in the making and its being tackled with seriousness for the first time in the last few years with promising results.

Give it some time, because not only is there a light at the end of the tunnel, but that light appears to be on 24/7.

BushBaby said:

Less (MUCH less) skimming off the top of contracts by politicians that are hell bent in lining their own pockets only

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I don't agree of painting all politicians with the same brush. Just because there is a sizable number of politicians that are highly corrupt and many others that are "partially" corrupt or less corrupt; doesn't mean that all of them are and its unfair to those who are working hard with the public's interest at hand to be relegated as something that they are not!

Having said that, I agree with you statement.

BushBaby said:

Less (like ZERO) money being spent on stupid contracts like 'The Metro' which will only benefit a few & not the majority of the populace

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This has to be the most idiotic statement and I don't blame you since you didn't came up with it, you're simply repeating what the opposition was chanting and journalists and other people wrote over and over in various media platforms.

But, what exactly are you saying? A further analysis of such statement that incorporates terms such as "only benefit a few and not the majority" reveals, then, that according to you government should not invest at all.

And no, this is no stretch of what you are saying, take a look at these examples using your basic premise:

1. The government should had never expanded, or even built the Duarte Highway because that project only benefits Santiagueros, capitale?os, and everyone that lives inbetween; while being a sizable portion of the population, its not the majority.

2. The government should had never built the autopista del Este since it only benefits a minority and not the majority.

3. The government should had never repaired the collapsed portion of the Luperon Highway because that highway only benefits Puerto Plata and Santiago, hardly the majority of the population.

4. The government should had never built the Luperon Airport since that airport only benefits Puerto Plata, hardly the majority.

5. The government should not build the Samana highway, since that only benefits capitale?os on the way to Samana and vice versa, hardly the majority.

6. The government should had never improved the 27 de Febrero, Kennedy, and Las Americas avenues in Santo Domingo since it only benefits a minority.

7. The government should had never built the Metropolitan Hospital in Santiago since it will only benefit Santiagueros and Cibae?os, hardly the majority.

Get the picture?

Acting as if a part of the country doesn't affect the whole is absurd at its most basic level.

The metro will benefit the most capitale?os, yes that's true; but it will also bring benefits to the entire country as well.

40% of the GDP of the DR is produced in Santo Domingo, that's almost half the country's economy concentrated in ONE URBAN AREA, that is becoming so congested that, particularly during rush hours, transiting from one end to the other is becoming not a headache, but a major migraine. That has a negative effect on the economy of the city and such city being home to almost half of the economy, the importance of implementing a public transport system that will bring the greatest benefit and efficiency are tremendous.

Anyone that says that a project that will benefit a region where 40% of the economy is produced will not benefit the country either is not attuned as to how much economic weight the capital has or is simply letting political ideologies dictate his/her ability to use common sense.

"The improvement of towns leads to the improvement of the country", those words were first said by Adams Smith well over 200 years ago and its just as true today as it was back then, more so when a country's economy is so heavily dependent in a particular region!

BushBaby said:

Less politically appointed 'botellas' who just reduce the amount of money available for distribution to businesses

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On that we all agree.

BushBaby said:

......... The list is extensive & does not include ONE element of Socialism in it!! On the contrary - it is all solid Conservative principles which most governmants in the world try to forget so as to benefit only themselves & their supporters!!

Wanting to discuss things so as to work in the manner suitable to the majority is NOT Socialism Nal's ...... it is COMMON SENSE!! ~ Grahame.

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If what you claim is true, then this must be the first time I come across with a person whose political inclinations are not influenced by that of his spouse. :ermm:

-NALs

A.Hidalgo said:

In my modest opinion it comes down to lack of transparency, waste, fraud, corruption, sobornos and macuteos among the many "ways" of the Dominican reality.

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That's part of the reason. Less corruption leads to lower transaction costs, greater economic growth, and less inequality, despite that last one ranging from marginally less to moderately less; depending how extensive corruption actually is.

In any case, inequality would not decrease substancially as to eliminate abject poverty and the visual positive changes will not be fast enough to put the critics at rest in the short run. And that's the bread and butter of critics, in the short run changes are hardly noticeable, but in the long run is when it all becomes clear. Of course, by that time the critics have had enough time to adjust their criticism, so in reality critics will always do what they do best, criticize the present.

Even in Sweden, the most equal country on earth, has its critics, even Sweden.

-NALs

NALs said:

Blah, blah, blah blah .........
If what you claim is true, then this must be the first time I come across with a person whose political inclinations are not influenced by that of his spouse. :ermm:

-NALs

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Apart from the great majority of your post (I couldn't read it all as I got tired of the inaccuracies & spin) being a fallacy of what actually happens on the highways & byeways airports etc of the Dominican Republic - you end up with an insult to my intelligence!!!! PLEASE apologise.

Lambada & I discuss things - I have MY views on politics & she has HERS. Sometimes they supplement, other times they are in conflict.
Rather reflects our religious tendencies I suppose, Lambada was raised as a Roman Catholic - I was raised in the Church of England faith. Any reason why either of us have to change religion just to please the Vatican, ............. or YOU???

No more red herrings please Nals, a straight apology will suffice! ~ Grahame.

BushBaby said:

Apart from the great majority of your post (I couldn't read it all as I got tired of the inaccuracies & spin) being a fallacy of what actually happens on the highways & byeways airports etc of the Dominican Republic - you end up with an insult to my intelligence!!!! PLEASE apologise.

Lambada & I discuss things - I have MY views on politics & she has HERS. Sometimes they supplement, other times they are in conflict.
Rather reflects our religious tendencies I suppose, Lambada was raised as a Roman Catholic - I was raised in the Church of England faith. Any reason why either of us have to change religion just to please the Vatican, ............. or YOU???

No more red herrings please Nals, a straight apology will suffice! ~ Grahame.

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How is that an insult?

I was simply stating that I have never met a person whose political inclinations were not influenced by that of his spouse, myself included.

How is my experience an insult?

-NALs

What a strange and sheltered life Nals must lead.

Small steps are necessary

The problem for Leonel is that in order to make small changes to improve education, lower corruption, and modernize the country he has to still please the Military, not **** off the Americans too much, reward a bunch of people that can take him out if hes not careful, still act like a socialist while performing like a capitalist....etc. If he was to make the moves that would truly benefit the DR, he could be killed and certainly voted out.

bob saunders said:

The problem for Leonel is that in order to make small changes to improve education, lower corruption, and modernize the country he has to still please the Military, not **** off the Americans too much, reward a bunch of people that can take him out if hes not careful, still act like a socialist while performing like a capitalist....etc. If he was to make the moves that would truly benefit the DR, he could be killed and certainly voted out.

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The legacy of Trujillo and Balaguer still haunts this country. This is a past that has to be broken for any real progress to be made, and that brake is not measured by the number of skyscrapers seen in the Santo Domingo skyline.

Nals simply wants a platform. And so often we give it to him.