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Thread: Recession of 2008 and impact on the DR

  1. #3831
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    O/C, why do you constantly have to mess with Nals and Pic's wet dream?
    Each time they awake from their slumber, they will only respond with the usual retorts of blah blah blah!!

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  3. #3832
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    Quote Originally Posted by Onions/Carrots View Post
    Those who live in the USA may have witnessed many billboards with a bent over Obama shaking the hands of a Saudi sheik with a before and after gasoline price pic in the background. The before price of 1.89 and the after price of 3.89 is no better representation of why the global economy has not collapsed and why the worst is still yet ahead. In a mere four years prices have risen 100% as far as our fuel costs are concerned. The FED through treasury and the mortgage and banking industry has funneled untold billions into the economy to keep it from unraveling and falling apart.
    Look, I'm not trying to pizz in your mess gear here but you'll need to find another example besides gas prices because that $1.89/ gal price that you quoted was from Sep 2008 and gas was $4.10 in Jun of 2008. This was an anomaly as the average price of gas in the U.S. had been rising steadily for years and all of a sudden took a sharp drop and it hasn't gotten back to the Jun 2008 price since. I won't speculate on the cause of the anomaly but it is real and evident to even those of us who don't have PhD's in economics. You will need to find another example for your theory because this one is busted. It's like buying a pair of Nikes for 80% off on Black Friday then reporting in January that the price of Nikes has risen, fourfold. Busted logic.








    Please.....continue.....

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  5. #3833
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    OMG!!!!

    Your hired......

  6. #3834
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    Quote Originally Posted by greydread View Post
    Look, I'm not trying to pizz in your mess gear here but you'll need to find another example besides gas prices because that $1.89/ gal price that you quoted was from Sep 2008 and gas was $4.10 in Jun of 2008. This was an anomaly as the average price of gas in the U.S. had been rising steadily for years and all of a sudden took a sharp drop and it hasn't gotten back to the Jun 2008 price since. I won't speculate on the cause of the anomaly but it is real and evident to even those of us who don't have PhD's in economics. You will need to find another example for your theory because this one is busted. It's like buying a pair of Nikes for 80% off on Black Friday then reporting in January that the price of Nikes has risen, fourfold. Busted logic.








    Please.....continue.....
    'dread, you're missing O&C's point.

    He's not blamng Obama. He's pointing out how thr FED has primed the pump with trillions; oil is just one commodity. I believe his point is that much of the current price of oil & gasoline is the reduced value of the dollar, since the entire world oil market is in dollars.

    Additionally, to bring this back to the DR, gasoline in the DR is a HUGE mega cash cow for the DR gubmint: it receives cash today for current obligations while accruing massive long term debt to PetroCaribe in the process, some really, really bad long-term solvency/sovereignty mojo...

  7. #3835
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    Default Ron Paul: I can get you a gallon of gas for a dime


  8. #3836
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    Quote Originally Posted by cobraboy View Post
    'dread, you're missing O&C's point.

    He's not blamng Obama. He's pointing out how thr FED has primed the pump with trillions; oil is just one commodity. I believe his point is that much of the current price of oil & gasoline is the reduced value of the dollar, since the entire world oil market is in dollars.

    Additionally, to bring this back to the DR, gasoline in the DR is a HUGE mega cash cow for the DR gubmint: it receives cash today for current obligations while accruing massive long term debt to PetroCaribe in the process, some really, really bad long-term solvency/sovereignty mojo...
    Oh no, I got his point alright but you are missing mine and it's not about defending the President, he does a pretty good job of that without me.

    The point that I was making is that you can't use a benchmark value (the price of oil in the World, not just the U.S.) which is such a clear departure from its avaerage value to make a point based on a timeline. If truth were told looking at the broader timeline the 2008 AVERAGE price doesn't look all that different from the 2012 AVERAGE price.

    Misrepresenting that average with a single dip to the low World price of crude oil and subsequently the price of gasoline in the U.S. is disingenuous when we look at the long term realities. It's convenient but it won't hold up to scrutiny.

    I agree with your assessment of the gas now for debt later deal. It was a real head scratcher.

  9. #3837
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    The numbers from the IMF meeting with the DR are out and it is worse than previously thought.

    Several pages ago I projected Debt to GDP at 55% for both public and private debt. The IMF is now indicating that just total public debt will be around 44%. Using a proprietary model that private debt will be approximately 50% of total public debt, you arrive at approximately 66% total private and public debt to GDP ratio.

    Press Release: IMF Concludes 2012 Article IV Mission to the Dominican Republic

    This is not good news for an economy slowing rapidly and growth this year may well fall below 4%, once the end of year numbers are released.

    Should remittances slow and/or tourism statistics show signs of regression, things could well get dicey for the economy. Those statistics will be carefully watched by the government/Central Bank during and through the holiday period.

    The IMF will agree to provide a new or resurrected stand by agreement sometime in early 2013. Will that be enough?

    It may well require measures beyond the recently passed fiscal reform tax package, and any IMF infusion. Time will tell.


    Respectfully,
    Playacaribe2

  10. #3838
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    Quote Originally Posted by playacaribe2 View Post
    The numbers from the IMF meeting with the DR are out and it is worse than previously thought.

    Several pages ago I projected Debt to GDP at 55% for both public and private debt. The IMF is now indicating that just total public debt will be around 44%. Using a proprietary model that private debt will be approximately 50% of total public debt, you arrive at approximately 66% total private and public debt to GDP ratio.

    Press Release: IMF Concludes 2012 Article IV Mission to the Dominican Republic

    This is not good news for an economy slowing rapidly and growth this year may well fall below 4%, once the end of year numbers are released.

    Should remittances slow and/or tourism statistics show signs of regression, things could well get dicey for the economy. Those statistics will be carefully watched by the government/Central Bank during and through the holiday period.

    The IMF will agree to provide a new or resurrected stand by agreement sometime in early 2013. Will that be enough?

    It may well require measures beyond the recently passed fiscal reform tax package, and any IMF infusion. Time will tell.


    Respectfully,
    Playacaribe2
    This is all nonsense, did not Pichardo prove once and for all that the DR was/is immune from the worldwide recession and is not really dependent on tourism and foreign investment!

  11. #3839
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    Quote Originally Posted by cobraboy View Post
    'dread, you're missing O&C's point.

    He's not blamng Obama. He's pointing out how thr FED has primed the pump with trillions; oil is just one commodity. I believe his point is that much of the current price of oil & gasoline is the reduced value of the dollar, since the entire world oil market is in dollars.

    Additionally, to bring this back to the DR, gasoline in the DR is a HUGE mega cash cow for the DR gubmint: it receives cash today for current obligations while accruing massive long term debt to PetroCaribe in the process, some really, really bad long-term solvency/sovereignty mojo...
    Exactly my point! His concern are my reference points. We can look at the chart he provided and arrive at the same conclusion. What he calls an anomaly is no such thing but the collapse that began in earnest with the fall of Lehman and the general collapse nationwide and worldwide in real estate prices, mortgage values and the stock markets round the world.

    The chart's low places it at 1/1/09 at 1.62. What caused the price to rise near 4 dollars at present? We all know it was NOT demand driven. When the DOW hit its low on March 9, 2009 hitting 6547 it had collapsed over 50% in value from its all time high hit on Oct 9, 2007 at 14,164. The FALL of '07 was the beginning of the end of the global economy. Had not the FED and the central banks of the world infused the economy with trillions of dollars plus the untold trillions more fooled around with in the shadow derivatives market, the stock markets of the world would have lost well over 90% of their value.

    That would destroyed most every company out there which uses debt and equity to fund itself. It would have detonated the pensions of tens of millions. Real estate prices would in most areas be completely worthless and in the great cities of North America would have lost well over 75% of their value. In turn all this collapse in pricing in a deflationary debt depression would have annihilated most banks as they had most of their deposit money in mortgages. As it stands, only through accounting gimmicks and FED resolve have banks been able to state something which it is not.

    So the greater issue is the fact that a coverup has been perpetrated in the hopes that eventually the organic marketplace will take over. No such thing will ever happen now or ever. Grey's point of contention are my reference points. I have used his points from the chart and the main theme which Cobraboy states is the issue. The so called economy we have is a phony one. The central banks have prevented total collapse and given us a fake phony baloney economy where prices rise not because of actual demand but because the more money they pump the higher prices go.

    In the hopes of igniting another boom which to the date 5 years later no such thing has happened. It is a first in central bank history. This is why as a previous post of mine has shown the major hedge funds and billion dollar funds await a collapse of the global economy. In the meantime the FED and other CB's have elevated the stock market, have raised commodity prices as oil and agro-goods and have created a semblance of growth but not actual real growth.

  12. #3840
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    2008, Obama gets elected. Thousands loose jobs including me.

    2012, Obama gets elected. 2013, Amex cutting over 6K jobs, CitiGroup cutting over 11K jobs, Duestche Bank cutting over 6K including a few colleagues. Thousands loose jobs including ME!!!!!!

    This recession is NOT over by a long shot. Here we go again.............................

    Moderator DR1.com

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