Guillermo Moreno's Plan For Dealing With DR's Problems

Fine ideas, crossing my fingers, truly wishing him luck.

However, he proposes substantial spending increases, and the only "savings" is in gubmint salary/perk reductions and anti-corruption efforts. Where does the rest of the $$$ come from?

Not sure about the 15% reduction of fuel consumption without harsh gubmint controls over freedom of choice in vehicles and use.

Raising the salaries of 4,000,000 workers will NOT be paid for by the reduction on politico salaries. In fact, increases in minimum wages have the unintended consequence of increasing unemployment. 4,000,000 is a lot of folks to give more $$$ to. Additionally, that would be the stake in the heart of the struggling Free Zones without further subsidies of them.

Other than vague weasel words ("encourage investment", "priortize public spending", etc.), I saw nothing about affecting the #1 economic problem: a plan to sharply increase per capita GDP. Without that, all else is just shuffling a deck with missing cards. Actually, the manditory increasing of wages may have an opposite effect...not good. The marketplace determines what a job is worth. In fact, the most insidious form of inflation is artificial wage inflation.

I also saw nothing about increasing power production/reliability, anything addressing environmental concerns, or modernization of the tax system.

I truly wish the guy well, and support his efforts (short of centralized gubmint control of the means of production). But isn't his message fairly similar to every other Prez contender, MOL? Edumacate the chirren', fight corruption, subsidise gas and electricity, help farmers, and reform the body politic?

Fact is, there is nothing ANY politician or political institution can do about the fundamental problem the DR faces: more population that the internal resources can support. It would take a true Messiah with direct connections to above to solve that one.

Just wanted to throw this out there...

cobraboy said:

Actually, the manditory increasing of wages may have an opposite effect...not good. The marketplace determines what a job is worth. In fact, the most insidious form of inflation is artificial wage inflation.

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According to the latest figures, the inflation rate for DR in 2007 was approximately 6.1% and the estimate for 2008 is approx 6.2%(maybe a bit higher because of oil prices). The last minimum wage hike was last year. So far inflation is nowhere near damaging the economy in any real sense because of wage hikes.

Report for Selected Countries and Subjects


Actual minimum wages in the DR.

The executive branch sets minimum wage levels for public workers, and the National Salary Committee sets levels for the private sector, with the exception of workers in the FTZs and the sugar, construction, hotel, and shoe manufacturing industries. The minimum monthly salary was approximately $139 (4,450 pesos) in the FTZs and $200 (6,400 pesos) outside the FTZs. The minimum wage for the public sector was approximately $81 (2,600 pesos) per month. The daily minimum wage for farm workers covered by minimum wage regulations was approximately $4.70 (150 pesos), based on a 10-hour day. Cane workers were subject to a special, lower minimum wage for the sugar industry, $2.50 (80 pesos) per day. The national minimum wage did not provide a decent standard of living for a worker and family.

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Dominican Republic

The basic problem is the number of unemployed in the workplace vs the number of individuals on the "dole" through the numerous subsidies to that same group.
In addition, the huge Public debt that the politicians continue to run up in an effort to meet the demands of those who want a "free lunch" without giving cognizance to the costs involved in the process.
Everybody wants the government to solve their problems for them and that just isn't possible given the lack of financial resources available.
I doubt bery seriously if the Legislature and theAdministration have even given serious thought to any plan that will inable the country to climb out of the financial mess it is presently facing short of declaring bankruptcy and starting all over again from scratch.
All the rhetoric in the collective vocabularies of the collective government ministeries won't solve the lack of intelligent actions this and other administrations are guilty of.
Texas Bill

He is just saying what people wants to hear...

ExtremeR said:

He is just saying what people wants to hear...

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So it would seem.... or does it?
what 'people'?
Or do people want to hear who gives auntie Yahaira her job as cleaning lady in the San Pedro procuradur?a office?

A.Hidalgo said:

Just wanted to throw this out there...

According to the latest figures, the inflation rate for DR in 2007 was approximately 6.1% and the estimate for 2008 is approx 6.2%(maybe a bit higher because of oil prices). The last minimum wage hike was last year. So far inflation is nowhere near damaging the economy in any real sense because of wage hikes.

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It's been clear that the DR has been and still is under significant inflationary pressure. I'm sure we can all recall the 40-60% inflation just a few years ago.

And inflation clearly hurts wage earners, especially those at the bottom rung of the prosperity ladder.

But throw in wage inflation on top of what is occuring now, and it's a recipe for the perfect economic storm: a stagnant economy shedding wealth and jobs, with inflation. Stagflation (remember the Jimmah Cahtah years). Then, my friend, it gets REAL ugly, and with the already negative resource/population issue ("rats in a cage":cheeky, there is no way out.

qgrande said:

Or do people want to hear who gives auntie Yahaira her job as cleaning lady in the San Pedro procuradur?a office?

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Yes, yes tell us that! It sure is more topical than remembering some fellow that most in the DR have no experience of and could not remember if you paid them.

Got interrupted and could not edit my post ... Last paragraph is ..

Anyway most folks here lived through a period of very rapid peso devaluation against the dollar setting in motion an extreme cycle of inflation - similar thing with a stagnant economy. A change in government and some promised rapid fiscal reforms and a lot of help from the IMF changed things.

This time I think things are even more shaky .. Its like the financial functioning of the world is made up of jello. I don't think any leader or wannabe leader has answers for the 'perfect storm' that the DR is facing.

Chris said:

Its like the financial functioning of the world is made up of jello.

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It's made of oil.

Chris said:

I don't think any leader or wannabe leader has answers for the 'perfect storm' that the DR is facing.

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Politicians do not draw their power from being economists. They draw their power from taking money from one group and spending it to buy votes.

The ONLY solution is a drive to increase real per capita GDP. But, once again, it's difficult if not nearly impossible, when you have more people than the internal resources can support.

The real problem comes when external funding to the DR shrinks up because of the global pressure stemming from higher oil prices from a huge global increase in demand. About every country on the planet will have a shortage of "gift" funds, because resourses are shifted toward oil.

What do you think will happen when foriegn aid to the DR dries up?:surprised

cobraboy said:

The ONLY solution is a drive to increase real per capita GDP. But, once again, it's difficult if not nearly impossible, when you have more people than the internal resources can support.

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I'm not so sure of that. 'That' being that there are more people than the internal resources can support. You say it with such absolute conviction each time you say it, as if someone cast it in stone somewhere.

I am of a different opionion and believe that the DR has (or used to have) sufficient resource to feed its populace. Of course not to support the jepeta generation. Food self sufficiency has become really old fashioned to talk about. Trade policies sound so much more sexy. Anyway, a real drive to recover the resources lost through the stupidities of various leaderships coupled with an uneducated populace, may make a substantial difference to lifestyle, but perhaps a very small GDP difference. By 'resources lost' I mean such things as nearshore fisheries, food production capability without spending a mint on chemicals. Anyway, my views are not necessarily popular as I believe in living within your means and not using more than a fair share of non-renewables.

Chris said:

I'm not so sure of that. 'That' being that there are more people than the internal resources can support. You say it with such absolute conviction each time you say it, as if someone cast it in stone somewhere.

I am of a different opionion and believe that the DR has (or used to have) sufficient resource to feed its populace. Of course not to support the jepeta generation. Food self sufficiency has become really old fashioned to talk about. Trade policies sound so much more sexy. Anyway, a real drive to recover the resources lost through the stupidities of various leaderships coupled with an uneducated populace, may make a substantial difference to lifestyle, but perhaps a very small GDP difference. By 'resources lost' I mean such things as nearshore fisheries, food production capability without spending a mint on chemicals. Anyway, my views are not necessarily popular as I believe in living within your means and not using more than a fair share of non-renewables.

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Try selling simple sustenance agriculture and fishing (just feed the people) to a population who wants to be First World, who WANT jeepetas, iPods, and the comforts they see in the novelas.

Fact is, the population of the DR, based on who they elect as leaders (that 96% voter thing), WANT a seat at the First World table.

The barn door is open, and the horse has been out for a while.

Based on the observable FACTS, an increase in per capita GDP is the only way to achieve what the voters of the DR want, even Senor Moreno.

cobraboy said:

Try selling simple sustenance agriculture and fishing (just feed the people) to a population who wants to be First World, who WANT jeepetas, iPods, and the comforts they see in the novelas.

Fact is, the population of the DR, based on who they elect as leaders (that 96% voter thing), WANT a seat at the First World table.

The barn door is open, and the horse has been out for a while.

Based on the observable FACTS, an increase in per capita GDP is the only way to achieve what the voters of the DR want, even Senor Moreno.

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THAT BC is probably the biggest load of Hooey you have spoken on DR1!!

The MAJORITY of the DR could not give two ****** about the 'First World' they know so little (if anything) about!! They want a plate of food on their table most days of the week, a cerveza or two to drink with their friends & a nice quiet lifestyle ............ END OF STORY!!

Your insistence that YOUR way is the ONLY way shows a desire to change the culture of the DR which I find a bit disturbing. SOME Dominicans have been taught to want 'BIG FLASHY POSESSIONS' but the majority would put up with a life that does not even accept the existence of the 'First World'. They have survived with a culture/friendship that far outweighs that of the 'Educated' world for over 500 years & have developed the way THEY want, why should we (the 'First World') impose OUR desires for this country's future on to them?

Whereas I become frustrated at the inequalities seen in this country & get angry at the rate at which the 'Have's' improve their lot at the expense of the 'Have NOTS', I try to be understanding & encourage the DOMINICANS to choose the pace at which they move forward. :ermm:
(I am put in mind of the quickstep dance motions ..... Slow, Slow EXTREMELY Slow!!)

Your 'FACTS' may be right for you but they are not necessarily right for the DR. If we look at the development of the 'First World' countries, one might even suggest that the DR has the 'better' standard of living!:surprised! ~ Grahame.

BushBaby said:

Your 'FACTS' may be right for you but they are not necessarily right for the DR. If we look at the development of the 'First World' countries, one might even suggest that the DR has the 'better' standard of living!:surprised! ~ Grahame.

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That approach is slowly becoming popular again. Together with a lot of time to enjoy life and friends and family. Something about the Wine, Woman and Song Lifestyle that is completely intoxicating and not only the wine...

You're right though Grahame. I sense a 'my way is the right way' insistence as well. Cobraboy, you have a way to go before you can speak for the Dominican Voting Population. And read again, I am not talking about 'simple sustenance agriculture'. Uhm... come to think of it, the ability of a country to feed itself certainly is not simple. Anyway, I am simply putting forward my thoughts that an increase in Gross National Product is not the only solution and the FACTS that you say your thoughts are based on are not. They are simply opinions, same as mine.

The jepetocracy is a small part of the DR.

BushBaby said:

THAT BC is probably the biggest load of Hooey you have spoken on DR1!!

The MAJORITY of the DR could not give two ****** about the 'First World' they know so little (if anything) about!! They want a plate of food on their table most days of the week, a cerveza or two to drink with their friends & a nice quiet lifestyle ............ END OF STORY!!

Your insistence that YOUR way is the ONLY way shows a desire to change the culture of the DR which I find a bit disturbing. SOME Dominicans have been taught to want 'BIG FLASHY POSESSIONS' but the majority would put up with a life that does not even accept the existence of the 'First World'. They have survived with a culture/friendship that far outweighs that of the 'Educated' world for over 500 years & have developed the way THEY want, why should we (the 'First World') impose OUR desires for this country's future on to them?

Whereas I become frustrated at the inequalities seen in this country & get angry at the rate at which the 'Have's' improve their lot at the expense of the 'Have NOTS', I try to be understanding & encourage the DOMINICANS to choose the pace at which they move forward. :ermm:
(I am put in mind of the quickstep dance motions ..... Slow, Slow EXTREMELY Slow!!)

Your 'FACTS' may be right for you but they are not necessarily right for the DR. If we look at the development of the 'First World' countries, one might even suggest that the DR has the 'better' standard of living!:surprised! ~ Grahame.

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You're saying that the majority of Dominicans don't watch TV, don't want a car or moto, don't want those Air Jordans or designer purse, don't jump at the chance to upgrade their cellphone, don't want to be Big Papi, don't want consistent electricity, don't want potable water, and don't want good edumacation?

You're saying the average Dominican won't risk their lives to escape to the US?

You're saying the average Dominican won't marry an old guy/gal to get her/his and their entire family out of the DR?

Why, pray tell, do over 1,000,000 Dominicans live outside the DR in the First World? And why is it so hard for a Dominican to get a visa out? Seems if they liked it so much, they'd just want to stay, foreign countries would know it, and make the visa process easy and quick.

I dunno, Grahame. I get around the country a lot, and I'm seeing a different "average" Dominican, I suppose, than you are. I see folks who want more, but it's just not there.

Besides, I'm a little confused about which Dominicans you're talking about: those angry proletariat who are itching to shake things up in mass, ready to overthrow the status quo, or those simple child-like Dominicans who want nothing more than food on their plate, cerveza with their friends, and a nice, quiet lifestyle (except for the music and dancing, of course). Understand my confusion.

And, Grahame, how many times must I post that I am a guest here, and that I have no intention to interfere with how they run their country? I only observe. Seems to me that it's you and your partner who are the rabble rousers, trying to shows these poor, unenlightened, low-consciousness savages* how things should be done in their country, the First World way.

So tell me, what should I do? Accept the Dominican culture and try to fit into it, as suggested repeatedly in Quisqueya, or spend my time raising political consciousness in an effort for Dominicans to become part of the First World, with social, political and economic justice, concepts that the average "simple" Dominican you refer to isn't particulary aware of?

Now, define for me "Hooey".





















*Sort of a Western Missionary/Margaret Meade reference.

Chris said:

Cobraboy, you have a way to go before you can speak for the Dominican Voting Population.

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So the factual analysis of the voting pattern results from May 16 have no bearing of how the voters think about their country?

I see.

YOU didn't like the fact that 96% of the voters want and voted the status quo, so YOU discount the facts.

Gotcha.

:classic:

So if the "jepetocracy" (whatever the heck that is) is so small, why do y'all...and Moreno*...rant against it? And why are there so many running around in the country? Why do you fear it?

And Chris, can you find a better solution to the problems of the DR than raising the GNP sharply? Right now it's around US$4000 per capita. Based on that, offer solutions to funding all the needs the country has. I'd truly like to hear them. Seriously.

















*I DO like his 4-cyl gubmint car idea.

Grahamme, Chris AND Cobraboy;
My observations, in theshort tome I have lived here, read a bit of DR history, leads me to believe that the "blame" for the cunundrum facing the DR rests with the "body politic" and their empty promises to their constituency over the years have resulted in the "general attitude" that the "government" is a know it all, do it all "savior". Without that constant influx of empty rhetoric on an uneducated and naieve population we would be in an entirely different social structure than we see today.
To me, the question is: "Can the EVER climb out of being a failed society in the eyes of those of us who were raised in a different and more progressive society"?
My own answer to that question is, NEVER.
Having said that, I was apalled at the lack of observable incentives exhibited by the Dominicans I came in contact with when I first arrived. No one was taking advantage of theidle, arible land to grow a garden, range cattle and hogs or even clean up their own refuse on their occupied property. To me that was the heigth of utter laziness and unawareness of the health problems they were creating and living in.
That and the out and out stealing from their neighbors who were a very little better off than they were spoke loudly of the lack of any awareness of even the most basic of social living relative to their fellow citizens.
What has happened to the total abandonment of self-respect, much less respect for the other's in the same boat?
Individually, the average Dominican is, I think, a descent sort, but collectively they're still in the "Dark Ages" socially.
We can't blame this endemic qualty on the lack of education and opportunity totally. A great deal must be attributed to family interaction, or lack thereof. As much as family members are excessively loyal, they lack that ingredient of making corrective action toward other members when the need arises.
'Nuff said.

Texas Bill

Texas Bill said:

Grahamme, Chris AND Cobraboy;
My observations, in theshort tome I have lived here, read a bit of DR history, leads me to believe that the "blame" for the cunundrum facing the DR rests with the "body politic" and their empty promises to their constituency over the years have resulted in the "general attitude" that the "government" is a know it all, do it all "savior". Without that constant influx of empty rhetoric on an uneducated and naieve population we would be in an entirely different social structure than we see today.
To me, the question is: "Can the EVER climb out of being a failed society in the eyes of those of us who were raised in a different and more progressive society"?
My own answer to that question is, NEVER.
Having said that, I was apalled at the lack of observable incentives exhibited by the Dominicans I came in contact with when I first arrived. No one was taking advantage of theidle, arible land to grow a garden, range cattle and hogs or even clean up their own refuse on their occupied property. To me that was the heigth of utter laziness and unawareness of the health problems they were creating and living in.
That and the out and out stealing from their neighbors who were a very little better off than they were spoke loudly of the lack of any awareness of even the most basic of social living relative to their fellow citizens.
What has happened to the total abandonment of self-respect, much less respect for the other's in the same boat?
Individually, the average Dominican is, I think, a descent sort, but collectively they're still in the "Dark Ages" socially.
We can't blame this endemic qualty on the lack of education and opportunity totally. A great deal must be attributed to family interaction, or lack thereof. As much as family members are excessively loyal, they lack that ingredient of making corrective action toward other members when the need arises.
'Nuff said.

Texas Bill

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Bill, part of one of my theses was applying Maslow to a country's economic development. Seems the DR is low on the second, or "Security Need" level. Folks coming from economies in the "Self Actualization" level get frustrated when folks three levels down just don't "get it".

Cultures and societies evolve, too, and at different paces.

Nice documents, Ginnie, especially the first one. Note that 14 years ago, the DR had a food deficit with 1,200,000 fewer people.

However, the per capita GNP has nearly tripled.

As long as GNP growth rises at a rate faster than population, economic progress is being made.