What is the logic of models?

R

rubio_higuey

Gold
Feb 7, 2007
8,005
625
113
Now, I can understand if a model says a storm will go north...or west... or northwest...or south...or whatever simple.

Now I don;t understand why some models show the storm will go east and then suddenly turn north ... like BAMD or BAMM here http://i.flhurricane.com/images/2008/clark9latest.png

or west, then northwest, then southwest.... like TVCC or TCCN here http://i.flhurricane.com/images/2008/clark10latest.png


so... what is the logic in these crazy paths? How do they get to "draw" them" ... again I can understand if someone thins it goes west, someone things it goes north, etc... but doing a zig-zag or sudden turns... again... WHAT is the logic?
 
M

mike l

Silver
Sep 4, 2007
3,157
466
0
rubio_higuey said:
Now, I can understand if a model says a storm will go north...or west... or northwest...or south...or whatever simple.

Now I don;t understand why some models show the storm will go east and then suddenly turn north ... like BAMD or BAMM here http://i.flhurricane.com/images/2008/clark9latest.png

or west, then northwest, then southwest.... like TVCC or TCCN here http://i.flhurricane.com/images/2008/clark10latest.png


so... what is the logic in these crazy paths? How do they get to "draw" them" ... again I can understand if someone thins it goes west, someone things it goes north, etc... but doing a zig-zag or sudden turns... again... WHAT is the logic?
Click to expand...


Without a long winded conclusion......you just can't trust the weather man, now can you !
 
C

Chris

Gold
Oct 21, 2002
7,951
28
0
www.caribbetech.com
rubio_higuey said:
so... what is the logic in these crazy paths? How do they get to "draw" them" ... again I can understand if someone thins it goes west, someone things it goes north, etc... but doing a zig-zag or sudden turns... again... WHAT is the logic?
Click to expand...

Simply modelling the various weather systems. Plug in the actual data from the ocean buoys, satellite metrics, real observations, historical behavior patterns and other weather systems and hey presto, you get a prediction of how a specific weather system will behave. Some years ago I did a writeup on models here on the weather forum and you may find your answers in that. It makes interesting reading especially if one realises that few models were built solely for weather.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top Bottom