2018 Hurricane Season

[MikeFisher]

it starts to get interesting now.
Florence got knocked down further to just a TS, but conditions on the path are great, so it will come back to Mayor Hurricane Powers, but around a day later than awaited.
due that it will wander almost straight westward well further before as a strong Hurricane steering NW'wards.
This Storm looks def like a serious threat to the Eastshores of the Mainland.

assumed "Helen" and Isaac" may eventually "change names",
as the farest away System(Disturbance #2), which i assumed will be the latest to get a name, is almost Tropical Depression#8 and should become a name very soon, too, and that very very far East, almost from the beginning.
but the race to be named Helen or Isaac is not finished, yet,
because Disturbance #1, the one between Florence and System#2, is awaited to become a TD any moment, too, and also to improve quickly to get the name assigned.
so, who ever will be Helen or Isaac, we will have 2 more named Storms on the Map very soon.

Disturbance#1, the one closer to Us, did organize nicely over night, the wide spread out non-circle look is completely gone.
it is forming a Center on its former WSW Quadrant and will very likely wander straight westward towards the Eastern Caribbean Islands for several days.
Curving towards WWNW or WNW will become the predominant tracking once a stronger storm has formed to get turned that bit by the WNW'erly steering currents up in the upper atmosphere.
for the next days the Trade Winds will bring it straight towards the Caribbean,
which give's it highest chances to become a first serious threat for the Caribbean.

TD#8/9(Disturbance#2) will forme a bit further North of the position where Disturbance #1 came from and if it continues to develop quicker, becomes a storm faster, then it would point towards missing the Eastern Islands on their NE.
BUT thats a long shot, many things can happen the next so many days.
for Now TD8/9(Disturbance#2) is a straight westward running going by the Tradewinds, following almost precisely the Path of Disturbance#1.

this is a time when we have to stay Tuned and follow up all updates.
2 more Weeks to go.

 

[caribmike]

Hi, Mods:

Season 2016 and 2017 still are sticky, can you make 2018 a sticky too?

Thanks!

 

[AlterEgo]

Voila! 2018 is a sticky, other two unstuck.

 

[MikeFisher]

it get's moving by the hour now and does not look fine for neither side, not the US East nor the Eastern Caribbean.

as awaited, both new Tropical Depressions are up, the 2nd/farest System won the race and became TD8, the one closest to us is TD9.
TD9 is almost stationary and gaining powers, conditions are good to get growing powers out of it soon and rising quickly.
we have to await that this is the one which can reach the Eastern Caribbean this Season.
all level of powers possible, after the weekend we will see if it really can develop in a super machine, IF it gets moving.
touch down SE of us, at the Island belt, would be in a week, even as early as mid day next week thursday.

TD8 we have to give more time, but it looks the more compact and quicker powers gaining system,
it should get its name prior to TD9.
tracking should not bring us into danger, it should miss the eastern islands by more than 1000 miles, which is usually a safe treashhold even so far ahead of time, so still just a vague estimate.

the game changer to the worst for the USA East Coast is actually named Disturbance #2,
a not threatening looking area of disturbed weather covering a area a few hundred miles SW of Bermuda.
it will not move much and it will most likely never become anything stormy,
but this System is actually neutralizing all prior present Windshear AND that is right on the Path of Florence.
it is preparing perfect Fueling grounds over a wide area where next Wednesday Noon a Mayor Hurricane named Florence is awaited to steam East of Georgia on a NW'erly tracking towards South Carolina, already then within the striking distance and that small System Disturbance #2 is just knocking down any bothering conditions that could hinder a Mayor Hurricane Florence to continue gaining powers while approaching.
I am pretty sure that Tuesday/wednesday of next week ahead we will observe the big event of the 2018 Season right over there.

but that does not put ourselves to any safety.
TD9 is what we have to watch, it could be over the eastern caribbean Islands next Thrusday Noon/no later than late Friday,
so we have to hope that the americans leave a couple Hunter Planes stationed in PR to fly what is possible into our Storm, while they of course will send all their other equipment into Florence 24/7, because Florence will pretty sure be the Focker of the Season.
hopefully it will just bring high visitor quotes to CNN and alikes for a week and then turn N and NE along the shores, bring some storm surge but curve without a landfall of such powers at the Carolinas or let alone a tid bit north at the highly populated part of the Coast.

this is the DeepLayer Windshear.
take note that it not only is down on perfect Storm fueling conditions on the path of Florence,
it is on the same perfect fueling conditions East of the Caribbean,
we have actually 1000 miles of Unbothered Landing Grounds to approach the Eastern Caribbean.
water Temps or any Dry Sand Layers are not present in any margins to bother a Storm.


this is the actually projected path for Florence.
keep in mind that it is by US and European Models predicted to already be a Mayor Hurricane of 3+ and fast Rising powers by Tuesday afternoon, with more days to rise the bar prior to any maybe Touchdown.

 

[MikeFisher]

lets take a quick look on the situations out there,
'cause today it is Macao Beach Fishy Saturday.
in an hour we will be on our way with best buddy and our 4 girls for fishy beach fun lunch
followed by an afternoon of beer tasting in the pool,
so the next big update will come tomorrow noon or monday, depending if something significantly changes.

TD8 transformed into TS Helen and will take it easy on developing Speed, running SW of the Cape Verde's.
it will be a Hurricane once past the light touch with the Islands, somewhere later sunday afternoon.
Tracking can be expected similar to the path of Florence til after mid week, towards mid Atlantic.
further tracking prognostics not worth to spend time on a week in advance for a non threatening Storm.
Helen should stay on Hurricane Powers til after mid week at least.

Florence will be back on Hurricane Powers tonight and then intensify for a very very long time period of a week's time mostly unbothered, awaited to run already on Cat3 again late Monday night when positioned exactly in the middle of Bermuda and PR, Tracking straight Westward.
the strong High Ridge moving off the NE of the US Mainland will guarantee that any Storm west of the 40thW will stay down on it's altitude, moving straight West til around mid week in case of Florence, at least til Thursday/Friday in case of TD9. then it will be located ENE of Florence far enough to allow a then Super Hurricane Florence the deadly WNW Tracking straight on the Carolinas. only if that High would get weaker as awaited and move well faster eastwards than forecasted, only then there would be a chance that Florence curves N and then NNE, parallel to the coastline close to Virginia/DC/NY.
the forecasts about strength and movement of such ridges been the last several years very very reliable, american and European Models show its movement in agreement on strength and direction and timeline, so the Carolinas should already have started to dust off their wildest emergency plans and check that their equipments are ready, it will all be on duty in a week from now.
this is not a simple Tropical Storm Sandy pushing a extraordinarily high Storm Surge at a most unpleasant Tide-Time on shore. Florence will be a Mayor Hurricane well above Cat3, still no forecast shows not the slightest change of perfect fueling conditions, so a Cat5 Superstorm should be taken into emergency/evacuation etc preparations.
Good Luck that something unawaited and significant changes to let Florence move out.

TD9,
this is the only one of interest for us Islanders, and it will very likely bother the Antillanas as a TS.
how close this future TS "Isaac" will come to the DR is highly uncertain at this point.
but by the actual timeline of the High over the Mid Atlantic I would say Puerto Rico stays completely safe from a hit,
the SE of the DR stays safe from a hit, the further W on our South Shores the higher the touchdown chances.
after Landfall over the Central Antillanas the next touchdown Center on the Long Shot uncertain long range tracking would be the Haitian Peninsula with Jamaica also still in the "cone" and SE Cuba on the further path.
it all depends on precision of the forecasts about the 2 High's for the north Atlantic.
"Isaac" gets pushed on a straight W Tracking by Both. as soon as their influence weakens the Storm will turn NW to point on Land. the same as for Florence under the Influence of the big strong High leaving the Mainland. it keeps Florence moving straight W passing far south of Bermuda til mid week, then the influence at one point will break down and the by then very strong Mayor Hurricane Florence will get it's "natural" WNW-NW Tracking and point towards it's Touchdown location, where a few days later the cattle will fly.
"Isaac" will run favorable conditions only for a fairly short time frame of a few days and should not exceed Hurricane Status of highCat1/mid Cat2 as the Top.
actually the Western and Central Caribbean Sea is under hostile Windshear, with the runway East of the Antilles under good Storm favoring conditions. the blast of high windshear is shifting slowly Eastward, will soon cover the Eastern Caribbean Sea and after mid week, when a "Hurricane Isaac" takes out it's landing gears for the visit of the Central Antilles, it should get taken down significantly and not reach the Island Belt on more than a upper scale TS Force.
the walk over, as usual by such weaker storm force, will knock it down a few more notches, so chances are highest that Isaac will not be any Hurricane Force while wandering through the Eastern Caribbean/near our Soil.

but all that is for many days and a week from now.
TD9 is the only threat out there for us Islanders, and it has potential to become a serious one to us or nearby neighbours,
so we have to watch it permanently.

have a focking great weekend everyone, as it will be perfect sunny beach conditions here on the E.

 

[CG]

Your the best Mike!... Have a great day fishing!

 

[caribmike]

Looks like Isaac will loose power before arriving close to us.

 

[MikeFisher]

Sunny Sunday in PC, dark Outlook for the Carolinas.

Hurricane Florence stays on the forecasted worst case scenario Track,
with hottest Sea Surface on the Path and no bothering windshear to speak of when approaching the Carolinas.
by mid week the awaited Tide Conditions at the moment of Impact should be out, calculating the Storm Surge of a high level Mayor Cyclone on top of that, affecting the coastline from Georgia up to New York with seldomly seen conditions.
the level of natural tide at the exact time of running in Storm Surge will decide how bad the water damage will be and how far North significant impacts will reach.
looking on the unchanged Tracking and Power Forecast, makes it unneccessary to add comments,
as it looks as bad as it ever could.



TS Helen, out on the far East, not worth to spend time on, as it will not come anywhere near our borders.



Tropical Storm Isaac, which will be Hurricane Isaac tonight, is the one for us Islanders to watch.
by now we are not in any danger, the long range forecasts proof til now to been on the full accurate side of all uncertainties.
it will enter the Eastern Caribbean Sea around the 15thN, mid Antillanas,
and should pass Puerto Rico and Punta Cana 150-180 miles on the South, a full safe distance to keep a calm nights sleep when it happens.
the Passing should happen somewhere during Thursday night and before Friday Noon,
closer to the date we will know that timeline exactly.
the Atlantic High moves still precisely as the European Models predicted it all the time on their long range forecasts,
so the confidence in that part of the long range outlooks is very high, as they prooved high accurracy on that the last couple years.
Isaac should start to turn WNW'wards due weakening of the High, once S of PR or S of the DR's SE,
so a 2nd Landfall location should be looked for somewhere between Jamaica and the Western Tip of the Haitian Peninsula,
but accurracy on such long shot can not be relied on and it also could wander well further West in the Caribbean Sea
for now we look all safe from dangerous winds or surfs or rainloads.
to get TS Force Winds along our South Shores is within possibilities at this moment, as we are talking long range 5 days ahead of time, but I am confident that we will wander out of that TS Force winds possibilities Cone once Isaac is in the Eastern Caribbean Sea.
you may notice that Isaac is shown to rise the Bar to Hurricane Force, a upper level Cat1 and even a borderline Cat2,
but then shows just as a TS in the Eastern Caribbean, even that Sea Surface Temps are very high/super favorable to fuel a Storm to let it grow strong as quick as Florence will do on approach.
the reason for that significant and life saving decline of powers on Isaac is due the awaited highest powers of Florence,
which will easily reach our soil and the Caribbean Sea producing the bothering counter winds on Isaac in the higher level of the Atmosphere. so once in the Caribbean, Isaac will loose its nice fueled and running Hurricane Organization and that will let it loose significant powers.

 

[MikeFisher]

Looks like Isaac will loose power before arriving close to us.

yes, I described it in the last post, but I typed it while you posted, hence i didnt answer to you directly, saw your post now after posting mine

 

[caribmike]

Could it be that Helene will hinder or maybe rip apart Isaac? I mean Helene is 4 mph faster on the road than Isaac and seems bigger and stronger and coming ever closer to Isaac. Could it happen?

 

[MikeFisher]

Could it be that Helene will hinder or maybe rip apart Isaac? I mean Helene is 4 mph faster on the road than Isaac and seems bigger and stronger and coming ever closer to Isaac. Could it happen?

you never know, but i dont think so.
Isaac is at the moment strong and rising and on a straight path with Helen still out of influence distance.

 

[MikeFisher]

here are the lates model runs from this afternoon/today for the 3 active Atlantic Storms.

1) Florence, a scary agreement with no real outliners



2) Helen, on no threatening Paths



3) Isaac, on track as projeted from the beginning, Outliners towards the North can be dicarted at this time

 

[jstarebel]

here are the lates model runs from this afternoon/today for the 3 active Atlantic Storms.

1) Florence, a scary agreement with no real outliners

View attachment 2987

2) Helen, on no threatening Paths

View attachment 2988

3) Isaac, on track as projeted from the beginning, Outliners towards the North can be dicarted at this time

View attachment 2989

Yep, We're all watching Isaac closely and checking out our gear in case it's needed.

 

[MikeFisher]

Good morning everyone.
so today we start our first and maybe already last Action Week of this boring Hurricane Season.

Hurricane Helene,
nothing new, no dangers, discarted.

Hurricane Florence,
def one of the biggest disasters in Hurricane History in the make/within highest probabilities to happen.
no changes on the Tracking forecasts, the European Models for long range outlooks on the future Highs/Lows, which are the most significant tracking factors, been so far 100% spot on, already since before Florence been a real Storm, scaring Magic.
they also run in full agreement with the american models, which been not the first choice for Tracking outlooks during the last couple seasons, as the Europeans prooved to be spot on on every storm since already 2016.
what changed again since yesterday, it did the last couple days little by little constantly into the same direction, is the less reliable long range Power Forecast. it gets upwards on the scale every day.
since this morning the agreemnet of the power scales would leave Florence still a Mayor Hurricane Power while already hours over Land/after Landfall, so that would make it a mid to high Cat4 at least at the moment of touch down.
there is sorrily no positive/reliefing news to tell about this one.
T-Time stays the same, awaited to go ashore SouthCentral North Carolina around Midnight Thursday night/Friday morning.
here are the Tide charts for some locations where the Storm Surge will be added to:
* Atlantic Beach, North Carolina
2018-09-13 Thu 4:18 AM EDT 0.0 feet Low Tide
2018-09-13 Thu 6:48 AM EDT Sunrise
2018-09-13 Thu 10:38 AM EDT 4.8 feet High Tide
2018-09-13 Thu 4:59 PM EDT 0.3 feet Low Tide
2018-09-13 Thu 7:16 PM EDT Sunset
2018-09-13 Thu 10:58 PM EDT 4.1 feet High Tide
2018-09-14 Fri 5:02 AM EDT 0.3 feet Low Tide
2018-09-14 Fri 6:49 AM EDT Sunrise
2018-09-14 Fri 11:26 AM EDT 4.6 feet High Tide

* Bogue Inlet, NC:


* Emerald Isle, NC


* Oregon Inlet Channel, NC


the coastline will not be on a ohase with the highest high tides of the year,
BUT Florence will roll in Exactly on the Incoming high Tide of Thursday night's High Tide.


Hurricane Isaac:
Nothing New, running as forcasted til now.


the fairly small windfield of Isaac.
on that size we should not receive TS Force winds on DR Soil, but this can change size significantly during this week.

 

[Marilyn]

Remembering TS Isaac from 2012 which had a similar path but more to the north, it touched land in the western tip of Hispaniola

 

[MikeFisher]

Remembering TS Isaac from 2012 which had a similar path but more to the north, it touched land in the western tip of Hispaniola

that's correct and the 2018 Isaac comes from the same waypoint,
but in 2012 there was not as strong of a Atlantic High present over the mid Atlantic, so in 2012 the storm had a WWNW tracking constantly, hit north of the middle of the Antilles and continued rising up on the map slowly.
Isaac 2018 is only a little bit below the 15thN, almost same position, but is pressured by the strong Atlantic High to stay down and wander West. once the influence of the High goes down the storm will turn sharper and get a more northerly tracking, WNW'wards. a hit of the same westernmost point of the Haitian Peninsula is the same very possible 2018.
it would bring that vulnerable area under strong winds and worse, it would bring it under the Rainbands.

 

[william webster]

Thank you Professor FisherMan

We are learning today from your expertise !!!

 

[drisforme]

surf-forecast web-site is currently reporting important swell end of week ,beginning of the following week. People living close from the beach may want to use it to see what is forecasted for their area.

For people at Encuentro http://www.surf-forecast.com/breaks/Encuentro/forecasts/latest/six_day

I am not an expert but this web-site was quite good in predicting in the past.

What do you think Mike about what is currently forecasted ?

 

[drisforme]

surf-forecast web-site is currently reporting important swell end of week ,beginning of the following week. People living close from the beach may want to use it to see what is forecasted for their area.

For people at Encuentro http://www.surf-forecast.com/breaks/Encuentro/forecasts/latest/six_day

I am not an expert but this web-site was quite good in predicting in the past.

What do you think Mike about what is currently forecasted ?

Also, an other web-site that I consult is windy.com

Please take a look a look and play the 7 days forecasted and the see the evolution of the waves.

 

[ben jammin]

Just issued a mandatory evac for all of my county here in NC. First time ever. Gonna get nasty