A bicycle route instead of Metro and against the construction of Atlantica?

[Mr_DR]

Actually, I don't think he's trying to put down or hold back the DR. Remember, he's running for President of Colombia; by speaking to an assembly/conference in the capital of another country, he builds up his standing in his own. Naturally, he will use that forum to tout things he has done as mayor of Bogota (not Medellin), to further 'prove' that he is a visionary leader.

I viewed his remarks as mostly Colombian politics, and found the thread in the environment forum hailing him as the savior of SD quite amusing.

Quite amusing is what i would say to that as well.

 

[Chirimoya]

"Thinking outside the box" is almost always helpful in finding solutions to problems. If Pe?alosa's solutions from Bogota help arrive at a solution for SD, great. Don't downplay, however, the likelihood that a regional figure with national ambition may, just may, put his remarks in context of what best serves him, not those he addresses. Also don't downplay the fact that his invitation and appearance in another country's capital city guarantee large amounts of airtime in the Colombian national press, including areas where he does not have a following.

As to the specifics, I feel that while it would certainly make any city more livable to have large swaths of green space as well as pocket parks and bike paths, there will be several potentially sever consequences. One is economic, i.e. what to do with the taxi drivers, motoconcho drivers, etc. If they are suddenly unemployed that could lead to civil unrest and increases in criminal activity. Another is the lack of maintenance, especially grounds cleanup. Perhaps the displaced drivers could be conscripted into a city wide litter patrol? As another poster has pointed out, what will be done with the vehicles that are treasured as symbols of affluence? If they suddenly become unusable, their value declines, causing more distress among the populace. If people flood the market selling these vehicles the value drops even more, further depressing the economy, or at least the finances of those doing the selling. Where would the land for the parks, bikeways, lowrise buildings proposed by Pe?alosa come from? Would it be seized from landowners by the government? Would the owners be properly compensated? Lastly, for the sake of brevity, what of the transportation system needed by the residents, to be used when biking is not an option. Pe?alosa's Transmileneo bus system, while cheaper than the metro, will still require hundreds of millions of pesos.
These questions all need to be answered before declaring Pe?alosa to have found "the only way forward for any city"

Applauding his approach is not tantamount to saying that what works in one place can be replicated here. The main lesson - or inspiration - from the Bogota experience is that given the chance, these sort of solutions can be successful. The next step is to look into different models that are appropriate to SD's climate, topography, culture, public opinion, etc. Then they should be tested. The popularity of the Avenida de la Salud and the Malecon Libre experiences are good omens.

All the questions you raise are valid - any new scheme has to be questioned and analysed, unlike the way the government is going about imposing the Metro on the population, with zero consultation or exploration of alternatives.

 

[Chirimoya]

I don't see your scenario ever happening in Dominican society. What you are talking about is a major shift in the way the average person gets from point A to point B. Think of an average, low income person in SD. We all know that the upper income poeple will never abandon the yipetas for a bike or bus. And there are more poor poeple than middle class. So they will be most affected. They aren't going to ride bikes. If there is a good metro bus system, how are they going to get to the bus stop? With the publico car system in place in Santiago now (the place I am more familiar with), you can almost literally walk our your front door anywhere in Santiago and get one car to the next to the next til you reach your destination. No walking involved. It's easy and cheap.
If the moto conchos are done away with, it would pop up again under the radar. But will still be used en masse.
Penalosa's ideas, while great, will never cause a major change in the way Dominicans transport themselves around town. They will all tell you it's too hot to ride a bike or walk any distance other than to the colmado.

These shifts have happened elsewhere, why not here? It is not an overnight transformation, I concede that. Keith R pointed out in the other thread that it happened in Rio, despite the heat. It would be interesting to hear how that worked.

I agree that the culture change required to get the wealthier sectors out of their cars and onto public transport is not something easily imaginable. As you say, the publicos are efficient in their own way, and affordable, so the challenge for the metro is to charge less - how are they ever going to do that with those overheads? If I were in charge of the Metro, or any other innovative public transport system, I would have to invest in a huge PR and advertising campaign to make the system attractive to all consumers - add that to the overheads.

Caracas has an integrated transport system - at least it did many years ago when I lived there - in that the metro runs through the central spine of the city and the bus routes connect the outlying neighbourhoods with the nearest metro stop. In that way it could be worked out so that bus and publico drivers get to keep their (altered) patches.

What is most likely to happen is that we will have a white elephant of a metro used by hardly anyone, and roads full of publicos, voladoras and all the cars we already have. If I take a break from my little indulgence in optimism, that seems to be the stark reality in store for us.

People appear to have seized upon the image of 'a city dominated by bicycles' a la Beijing or Phnom Penh, when this is not what anyone is seriously suggesting. What is lacking in SD is choice. We do not have the option of either cycling or walking if that's what we choose to do. This is what has happened to me. I have been forced into using a car for the first time in my life, thanks to conditions here.

There is no agenda for making cars obsolete, as one poster implied. People would still have cars, they would just use them less. This already happens in large cities with good public transport, and you don't hear car dealers complaining that sales are down. There will always be a place for taxis, shared taxis and buses, but they would have to keep within the law, unlike the situation now.

Bicycles might not be the best traffic solution for SD, but it is not so starry-eyed to strive for a city where there are at least some safe bike routes for those who wish to use them, including children and students. I'm sure that a large proportion of us here grew up riding bikes on the streets around where we grew up, and that many of us cycled to school and university. It is a tragedy that our children cannot have that freedom, and combined with the fact that even walking is out of the question for most people most of the time, it is one of the main factors behind the obesity epidemic.

It's a matter of time before we evolve into lumps of lard without legs - although we need at least one leg to drive a car, I suppose.

 

[stewart]

These shifts have happened elsewhere, why not here? It is not an overnight transformation, I concede that. Keith R pointed out in the other thread that it happened in Rio, despite the heat. It would be interesting to hear how that worked.

I agree that the culture change required to get the wealthier sectors out of their cars and onto public transport is not something easily imaginable. As you say, the publicos are efficient in their own way, and affordable, so the challenge for the metro is to charge less - how are they ever going to do that with those overheads? If I were in charge of the Metro, or any other innovative public transport system, I would have to invest in a huge PR and advertising campaign to make the system attractive to all consumers - add that to the overheads.

Caracas has an integrated transport system - at least it did many years ago when I lived there - in that the metro runs through the central spine of the city and the bus routes connect the outlying neighbourhoods with the nearest metro stop. In that way it could be worked out so that bus and publico drivers get to keep their (altered) patches.

What is most likely to happen is that we will have a white elephant of a metro used by hardly anyone, and roads full of publicos, voladoras and all the cars we already have. If I take a break from my little indulgence in optimism, that seems to be the stark reality in store for us.

People appear to have seized upon the image of 'a city dominated by bicycles' a la Beijing or Phnom Penh, when this is not what anyone is seriously suggesting. What is lacking in SD is choice. We do not have the option of either cycling or walking if that's what we choose to do. This is what has happened to me. I have been forced into using a car for the first time in my life, thanks to conditions here.

There is no agenda for making cars obsolete, as one poster implied. People would still have cars, they would just use them less. This already happens in large cities with good public transport, and you don't hear car dealers complaining that sales are down. There will always be a place for taxis, shared taxis and buses, but they would have to keep within the law, unlike the situation now.

Bicycles might not be the best traffic solution for SD, but it is not so starry-eyed to strive for a city where there are at least some safe bike routes for those who wish to use them, including children and students. I'm sure that a large proportion of us here grew up riding bikes on the streets around where we grew up, and that many of us cycled to school and university. It is a tragedy that our children cannot have that freedom, and combined with the fact that even walking is out of the question for most people most of the time, it is one of the main factors behind the obesity epidemic.

It's a matter of time before we evolve into lumps of lard without legs - although we need at least one leg to drive a car, I suppose.

From your mouth to Gods ears.
Except for the lump of lard bit. I work too hard to avoid that.

 

[Criss Colon]

At First I Thought That The "Metro Project" Would NEVER Take Place.

But that was because,silly me,I was thinking as a person who puts the potencial benefit of a public works project into the equation!
A tiny Country with 13 to 14 Billion US Dollars in foreign national debt,has no business undertaking a project of very questional public benefit!THat said,the most "efficient" way to steal money from the public trust,is huge construction projects!
This has been proven by every Dominican President ever to hold that office.Balaguer made it into an art form,"Hippolito" just did it!He didn't even attempt to hide it!
As was stated in one of the "papers" when the project first surfaced."It will recieve the support of all the political parties,because it is so huge,and will take so long to complete,that there will be money enough for everyone!"
No matter that it will bankrupt the Country,and take years to complete,benefit only a few,and become a "disaster" to run and NEVER be maintained!

I must take exception to something said by "Nalswahls"(Nothing New Here!)
He says that the Malecon Center will be happy,and benefit from, the proposed "Island".I say that if I owned a condo in the Malecon Center,and my beautiful ocean view were to become an "Island" view,I would purchase a high powered deer rifle,and start shooting the construction workers faster than they could "construct!!
And as for "El Faro Colon" being a huge success,What have you been "smoking' MY FRIEND???what a National Shame,that the "barrios" remain in the dark,while that foolish disgrace uses up millions of dollars of electric energy,and public land!!!!!

Soooooooooo,I say that the "Metro" will be a reality,due to potencial benefit to the Government Funcionarios,but the "Island" will be just a mirage!
CCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCC

 

[NALs]

I must take exception to something said by "Nalswahls"(Nothing New Here!)
He says that the Malecon Center will be happy,and benefit from, the proposed "Island".I say that if I owned a condo in the Malecon Center,and my beautiful ocean view were to become an "Island" view,I would purchase a high powered deer rifle,and start shooting the construction workers faster than they could "construct!!

For one thing, if you would have noticed on the plans (which obviously you and most other people have not because they have not seen the plans in person) you will notice that the area directly in front of Malecon Center on this island will have NO HIGHRISES.

Also, look to your right and left from any of the Malecon Center apartments. Notice, the horizon of the ocean from where the sun rises and sets are clearly visible. As far as I'm concerned, the most important thing or sellable feature of ocean front property is "being able to see the sun either rise or set on the horizon with the glistening of the ocean in the foreground".

Even with the island, the view of sunrises and settings will still be available to Malecon Center residents.

In addition to all of this, there will always be people who will buy these apartments, once the economy picks up. Otherwise, those who truly want a obstruction free frontal sea view will opt for the new apartments that will be built on the island itself. In addition to that, they will have an urban setting that is clean, ultra-modern and organized, in addition to pedestrian friendly.

And as for "El Faro Colon" being a huge success,What have you been "smoking' MY FRIEND???what a National Shame,that the "barrios" remain in the dark,while that foolish disgrace uses up millions of dollars of electric energy,and public land!!!!!

It's still the most visited monument in the Caribbean. Those neighborhoods would have gone dark Faro A Colon or not. Remember, blackouts are a feature of the landscape here and they have been around since the 1980s, before the Faro was even built.

In addition to that, the Faro is not turned on everyday or night to begin with.

 

[Criss Colon]

"Sunrise Sunset,Sunrise Sunset",You Have Been "Fiddling On The Roof" Too Much!

That MAY be the sillyest arguement for the "Island" I have ever "Hoid"!
I can see the adds for the Malecon Center Condos now."Beautiful views of the "Sunrise",and the "Sunset",but the rest of the day you see the "Backside" of an "Artificial Island"!
"Oh wait,I get it!" Since most people are at work during the day,and away on weekends,"It doesn't matter what you see the rest of the "Day"!!!

"The Point Is Mudo" my "Amigo", it ain't gonna happen!

"El Farro Colon", the most visited monument in the Carribean? Can you hear all those people laughing??????

I have been to "Whore Houses" in "Los Mina" that have more visitors,use less electricity,and generate more money for the economy than "El Farro"! And I always left feeling happier than looking at all those light burning has EVER made me feel.

"Hey,Hey",whats that about you saying, "WHEN THE ECONOMY PICKS UP",you are always saying how great things are NOW!
And in the same breath you state,"Blackouts are a feature of the landscape here" One would think that a prosperous economy could provide the basic services for it's citizens wouldn't you??
I have a great idea,one that even you,as an ECONOMIST,with a Masters degree from UConn.,should be able to grasp.
Fix the power grid FIRST!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Once there is RELIABLE energy,the economy can GROW.From the bottom up!Not from the top down based on the false prosperity of mortgaging our childrens future with long term international debt that can never be repaid!
It works like this,and is really very simple!
It the Colmado can sell COLD BEER,if the Salon can dry hair,if the "Taller" can sell it's services,if the restaurant doesn't have to throw out spoiled food,if the kids can see at night to do their "Tarea",if the families can get some sleep because they can run their fans at night,then,and ONLY THEN the DR can pull ITSELF out of the hopper!
The amount of money "in circulation",is not as important as "The Circulation" of that money! Got THAT?
I said it before,and now I will say it once more.
Judge a Country on how it provides for the poorest of it's citizens,not on how it provides for the richest!
Got to run,I hear that the lights will be "on" at the "Faro A Colon" tonight. I want to get in line early.I wouldn't want to miss out!!
CCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCC

 

[Jon S.]

I say that if I owned a condo in the Malecon Center,and my beautiful ocean view were to become an "Island" view,I would purchase a high powered deer rifle,and start shooting the construction workers faster than they could "construct!!
CCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCC

I'd get a .223 BushMaster, it'll take care of business. If this boondogle ever gets built, watch someone's idea of a 'no high-rise' island go by the wayside. That'll be the first thing that will happen on there because of all the private investors and their demands to have a great view of the Caribbean.........I would like to be more optimistic on this project and the Metro but I don't think so, too corrupt.......

 

[NALs]

That MAY be the sillyest arguement for the "Island" I have ever "Hoid"!
I can see the adds for the Malecon Center Condos now."Beautiful views of the "Sunrise",and the "Sunset",but the rest of the day you see the "Backside" of an "Artificial Island"!

Or the beach that will be built along the current malecon. Many people enjoy people watching, especially in this country where weird things happen everyday.

"El Farro Colon", the most visited monument in the Carribean? Can you hear all those people laughing??????

Well, believe it or not, it is. Does that means that its going to be filled 24/7 with people? No. It just means more people visit the place through out the year than any other monument. Remember, this is comparing only monuments to monuments in the Caribbean basin.

"Hey,Hey",whats that about you saying, "WHEN THE ECONOMY PICKS UP",you are always saying how great things are NOW!

Once the economy is in full gear, things will smooth out for the Malecon Center. That is a no brainer.

Things are a whole lot better today than they were last year. Sure, you may not be able to afford certain things, but at least you know tomorrow the samthings will not be 100% more expensive than today.

And in the same breath you state,"Blackouts are a feature of the landscape here" One would think that a prosperous economy could provide the basic services for it's citizens wouldn't you??

You yourself have stated that you don't pay your electric bill. Obviously there is enough electricity to go around, but if most people don't give their part of liquid cash, then the world stop spinning.

I have a great idea,one that even you,as an ECONOMIST,with a Masters degree from UConn.,should be able to grasp.
Fix the power grid FIRST!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

How about paying for the service first! I'll bet that will fix the problem just fine!

Once there is RELIABLE energy,the economy can GROW.From the bottom up!

I'm surprised to read this from a person who publicly stated that he adds to the electric problem by not paying his bill!

Everybody knows the problem is people not paying their electric bill, that is why people should not be complaining unless you pay your bill.

This is equivalent to people who don't pay taxes complaining about the situation in the country with public services. Only those who do pay their taxes can complain, otherwise just take your medicine.

 

[Jon S.]

Quick question

Nalo, why do you think that it's only the non-paying people that contribute to the problem nowadays? In the past, it was probably the reason why the grid started failing but now, the Edes and the CDEEE or whatever it's called, are running the ultimate racket, almost like the cell phones in the US, and the paying users get stuck with the bill. Not to say that the non-paying users should remain that way, because it's wrong to do so, but there is no motive for them to start paying for a non-existent service.

I would like for things to work out but not everyone is as optimistic about the situation right now. I have serious doubts that the economy will even get back to anything like before Hipolito and I'm usually pretty positive about things. Even my father, who is usually very upbeat about things, got tired of the situation and ended up sending my mom back here to the States until things get better. $14 Billion dollars is a big load for a nation like that to carry but that's the way of life down there, to screw the common man over and to pass off until tomorrow what can be done today.

Also, I wanted to mention about the way you look at the current situation. I definitely respect what you have to say and you make some good points, but your outlook is different from that of a regular person in the DR. Where CC is coming is not normal either, but he's closer to the general population than you are. So therefore his opinion is going to be different from yours. I can understand where both of you are coming from but can't agree with you on what you said.

See yall in DR........

 

[gringito]

Really?

Applauding his approach is not tantamount to saying that what works in one place can be replicated here. The main lesson - or inspiration - from the Bogota experience is that given the chance, these sort of solutions can be successful. The next step is to look into different models that are appropriate to SD's climate, topography, culture, public opinion, etc. Then they should be tested. The popularity of the Avenida de la Salud and the Malecon Libre experiences are good omens.

All the questions you raise are valid - any new scheme has to be questioned and analysed, unlike the way the government is going about imposing the Metro on the population, with zero consultation or exploration of alternatives.

Do you have personal experience with the "Bogota situation"? The best traffic solution introduced by a different Mayor of Bogota and still quite successful was limiting the roads to odd or even license tag numbers on different days of the week. That has had more to do with making Bogota more livable. Have you walked thee new parks in Bogota? And can you please tell me all the positives about Malecon Libre? When Malecon Libre first started, it was very popular with a lot of people there but the bands and the noise went way too late in the night. Now, there are not near as many people and most of the attractions are long gone.

Regards

 

[Chirimoya]

Do you have personal experience with the "Bogota situation"? The best traffic solution introduced by a different Mayor of Bogota and still quite successful was limiting the roads to odd or even license tag numbers on different days of the week. That has had more to do with making Bogota more livable. Have you walked thee new parks in Bogota? And can you please tell me all the positives about Malecon Libre? When Malecon Libre first started, it was very popular with a lot of people there but the bands and the noise went way too late in the night. Now, there are not near as many people and most of the attractions are long gone.

Regards

gringito, sounds like you do know what Bogota is like, so it would be interesting to hear your take on it. If mistakes were made, they are there for us to learn from.

I have to admit I haven't been to Bogota since about 1992, so no, I have no personal experience of what it is like today. Reading Pe?alosa's speech was what brought this to my attention, and coincidentally that same day I spoke to a colleague who had worked on that same project. See the other thread about this in the environment forum.

The traffic 'solution' of restricting car use according to the last digit of the licence plate is used in several places and has its limitations. In my experience in a couple of such places people find ways round it and it ends up having minimal impact, but it may have worked better in Bogota precisely because it was employed as part of an integrated solution - with real alternatives for car users - public transport, pedestrian routes and cycling lanes.

Malecon Libre, Avenida de la Salud, Ave. Quinto Centenario's "Villa Libre" and not least the significant numbers of people everywhere walking in the early mornings and evenings demonstrate to me that there is a desire on the part of Dominicans from all social sectors to walk, cycle and enjoy their cities beyond the traffic-choked streets and cars. The fact that all of these are undeniably flawed in some way - noisy excess on the Malecon, unfavourable conditions for walkers (I know, I am one) in most neighbourhoods, the fear of crime in the Parque Mirador - only means that solutions need to be found so that people can continue to enjoy this right, and can do so in healthier and safer conditions.

 

[NALs]

Nalo, why do you think that it's only the non-paying people that contribute to the problem nowadays? In the past, it was probably the reason why the grid started failing but now, the Edes and the CDEEE or whatever it's called, are running the ultimate racket, almost like the cell phones in the US, and the paying users get stuck with the bill. Not to say that the non-paying users should remain that way, because it's wrong to do so, but there is no motive for them to start paying for a non-existent service.

More than half of all electricity "customers" are not paying their bills, mostly because they can't afford it.

How can a business work properly if their source of revenue is not consistent with their output of service or goods? The bills are increasing to those who remain paying because more and more people are not paying. Somebody has to pay for the juices of electricity, but if more people would pay their bills, the bills will most likely diminish since people will be paying for their own consumption, not the consumption of themselves and the rest of the neighborhood.

I would like for things to work out but not everyone is as optimistic about the situation right now. I have serious doubts that the economy will even get back to anything like before Hipolito and I'm usually pretty positive about things. Even my father, who is usually very upbeat about things, got tired of the situation and ended up sending my mom back here to the States until things get better. $14 Billion dollars is a big load for a nation like that to carry but that's the way of life down there, to screw the common man over and to pass off until tomorrow what can be done today.

There are other countries (like Costa Rica) which have even higher levels of debt on a per capita level and on a percentage of GDP and quite frankly, they are doing well considering their situation. What killed the DR above everything else was the collapse of the banks. Now people are regaining confidence in the system and its beginning to show in the economic indicators, despite what the media says.

I prefer to put attention to economic indicators than some journalist who comes up with stuff on the spot and/or makes things seem worst simply to sell a few papers.

Also, I wanted to mention about the way you look at the current situation. I definitely respect what you have to say and you make some good points, but your outlook is different from that of a regular person in the DR. Where CC is coming is not normal either, but he's closer to the general population than you are. So therefore his opinion is going to be different from yours. I can understand where both of you are coming from but can't agree with you on what you said.

All I can say is that the average person is not feeling as bad as they were when inflation was at over 50%, the peso lost over half its value in no time, prices of everything skyrocketed, savings of many people evaporated, and the economy came to a screeching halt.

Listen, we went through some serious stuff. The fact that the economy did not fully imploded is almost a miracle, but things are turning around. Sure, the average joe will continue to complaint until he can see the immediate effects in his pocket book, but things are turning to make that happen.

Many DR1ers were expecting the exchange rate to destabilize by now (remember, it's the end of March 2005), but I stand by what I stand which was that the peso was not going to destabilize because it is at its market level right now. Many people choose to not believe that, but the evidence is there for everybody to see. In short, don't take what most people on this site "predict" when it comes to economics, as has been proven over and over again is that many DR1er over estimate in most things with regards to the economy.

Then again, much of what goes here is pure speculation based on "I think this is what's happening" as oppose to "This is what's suppose to happen under these conditions", etc etc etc.

 

[thepiper]

Indicators ??????

Nalwhs, what economic indicators are you putting your atencion on. Is it the raising "deficit cuasi fiscal", is it the loss of jobs, is it the fact that the DGII is not able to meet expectation of ITBIS revenue, is it little known indicator that is inflation banco centrtal figures but it at about .79 for Jan/05).
But all anybody has to do, is visit friends with stores in the city and you will get the best indacator of all.

Nal0whs, if you chose to answer this post, please don't do it with your dribble "just the facts ma'm, just the facts". I know your opinion, what I would like to know is how you got there.

"I prefer to put attention to economic indicators than some journalist who comes up with stuff on the spot and/or makes things seem worst simply to sell a few papers."

 

[Mr_DR]

Nalwhs, what economic indicators are you putting your atencion on. Is it the raising "deficit cuasi fiscal", is it the loss of jobs, is it the fact that the DGII is not able to meet expectation of ITBIS revenue, is it little known indicator that is inflation banco centrtal figures but it at about .79 for Jan/05).
But all anybody has to do, is visit friends with stores in the city and you will get the best indacator of all.

Nal0whs, if you chose to answer this post, please don't do it with your dribble "just the facts ma'm, just the facts". I know your opinion, what I would like to know is how you got there.

"I prefer to put attention to economic indicators than some journalist who comes up with stuff on the spot and/or makes things seem worst simply to sell a few papers."

It is always amazing how many of you see one negative thing and immediately presume the worst and in the process close your eyes and forget about all the positive that more than outweights a negative. Many of you don't even bother reading any dominican newspapers to see all the big proposed projects as well as major developments that at some point were just dream projects but that are now getting their yellow ribbons cut, and opening their doors for business.

Here is an interview done with one of the main economy advisors in the DR,
....2004 Interview The Dominican Republic.

Question - There are many topics and issues to discuss - for example, the steep devaluation of the Dominican Peso in 2003, recent presidential elections, economic outlook, etc. To start off with, let me ask a blunt question: Do you still believe the Dominican Republic is an attractive place for investment and do you still believe the country is attractive for foreigners as a retirement destination?

.

A. Well, allow me to say that YES, I do believe that the Dominican Republic remains attractive for a number of reasons. I suppose we can dovetail into the politics and economy as part of that answer, which is to say that I think the last four years were a blip on the radar screen and not a change in the overall long-term fundamentals. In the case of retirement or relocation options for foreigners, the Dominican Republic still has some of the lowest priced real estate in the Caribbean, when compared with say the Bahamas, St. Martin and many other places. Also, if you take a look at the cost of living, again, when comparing apartment rental costs and other costs of living, it still remains to be attractive..
Question - But is it not true that real estate prices have gone up and cost of living has gone up because of the currency devaluation?

.
A. Initially, immediately following the currency devaluation, the country went on sale ? at least for foreigners or anyone with savings in US Dollars or Euros. So, since real estate prices never move in tandem with more liquid currency markets, for foreigners at least, prices were cut in half in US Dollar terms anyway. Now with that said, that was in 2003. We are well into mid-year 2004 and real estate is starting to get adjust upward. But you can still find a brand new 3-bedroom home in many of the residential sections of the city for about US$70,000. Also, you can find a new apartment, meaning new construction, starting at about US$80,000 and go up from there. Obviously the so-called luxury areas of the capital, here in Santo Domingo, are going for about US$130,000 or so ? but these are very upscale buildings with a doorman, Jacuzzi in the master bedroom, etc. and so on. As always, it really depends upon what you want, but the range is reasonable. If you want to buy a building lot and build your own home, a 1,000 square meter building (which is about a quarter of an acre or about 10,000 square feet) will cost anywhere from US$20,000 on up ? higher in some of the more upper scale neighborhoods of course. Again, using these figures, one has to compare apples to apples. What would a quarter of an acre residential building lot in the capital city of the Bahamas cost? What about Buenos Aires, New York, Miami, St. Johns, Bay Islands of Honduras - etc.? To be fair about this, can someone buy property in the jungles of Belize for much less? Of course they can, but I am not talking about farmland or jungles but a residential building lot inside a fairly modern capital city with all the related conveniences (24 hour pharmacies, restaurants, modern medical facilities, shopping malls, movie theaters, etc.)


Question - OK, so you feel real estate is still reasonable when compared to elsewhere, but what about cost of living? I have heard that the cost of living has gone up tremendously for the Dominican People, and in fact one reason they voted out the last president in the recent May 2004 elections?

.
A. Well, to be sure cost of living has gone up for anyone that has not have the bulk of their savings in another currency, such as the US Dollar or Euro. Plus, keep in mind that salaries have not increased to keep pace either. So, where as foreigners with cash in Dollars or Euros have not been hurt at all really - in terms of their purchasing power as each time they convert in Pesos, they are getting more and more Pesos for their money ? local Dominicans have not faired out so well. Consider an architect, branch manager of a bank or whatever other professional that was and is still earning about RD$25,000 Pesos per month as salary ? and keep in mind this is a professional level salary in the Dominican Republic. Before, such an amount was equal to about US$1,000 or so per month. Now that same salary is equal to about half in US Dollar terms. So, yes, the local population has been hurt very badly by the currency devaluation and higher prices for gasoline, groceries, etc.
.
However, another very important point to consider though, when discussing real estate or whatever is that this situation is perhaps one reason there is a cap on prices as well to some extent. Meaning, professionals still earn what I said and they have to live somewhere. If you are a builder, you can either sell your real estate to only the very wealthy or try and accept a lower profit margin to make such homes or apartments affordable. On a similar note, I have noticed that the price for 2-liter bottles of Coca-Cola has dropped in the supermarkets not too long ago, and I heard that the reason was no one was buying Coca-Cola because of the price. So, in any product, regardless of what happens in the outside world, in terms of the local market you cannot price something out of reach ? or otherwise, you will not have any customers, or very few. So, the question of whether or not your product or service is priced so the vast majority of the local population can afford it is an important point in terms of keeping a lid on price increases. Obviously prices have gone up, let us be fair and honest about that. But, how high can they go? The choice for business is accept lower profit margins or simply go out of business in such a situation.

Question - What about the Banking Sector? What are the current interest rates? There were rumors or talk once again about using the US Dollar ? True or False?

.

A. First and foremost, I can say in terms of the banking sector, one major bank was taken over by the Superintendent of Banking, but none of the depositors lost any money ? due in part to the Government Banking Insurance Fund that exists (somewhat similar in nature to FDIC insurance in the US) and in part due to the intervention of the Central Bank as well. Now, with that said, there have been some mergers, and very good ones I might add that have actually strengthened the capital of some larger banks. So, all in all, I am positive about the banking sector in general and most of our clients have been pleased with their banking capabilities so far.

.
Interest rates for US Dollar savings account will vary between 2.5 percent and 5 percent, all depending upon the bank. US Dollar CD or 90-day time deposit rates have come down slightly to a range of 6 percent to 7.5 percent at the moment. Pesos savings accounts pay anywhere from 7 to 10 percent, depending upon the bank and CD or time deposit rates go up to about 20% or so all depending upon how much of a deposit you make.
.
On the idea of scrapping the local currency, I honestly think this is an uphill battle, especially with the new administration coming in. First of all, you have a sovereignty issue whereby Dominicans do not want to be subject to a foreign government with respect to their currency. Secondly, most business people I spoke with are against the idea - as it would kill off the competitive price advantage this country has in terms of exports. But, every once in a while, the idea is battered about in the press. However, there was a very interesting political cartoon in one of the newspapers recently. The point of the cartoon was the idea of getting rid of the Peso in favor of the Dollar because the Peso has declined in value. The punch line was ? So what do we do when the US Dollar starts loosing it value ? go to the Euro?? A good point considering the US Dollar has been on a tumbling trend lately - a trend that I tend to think will continue long-term for a number of reasons. So, we talking about exchanging a black cat for a brown cat ? what is the point? If anything the answer is going back to the gold standard, but that is not easy to do, however certainly more sensible than switching from one weak currency to another.


Question - What do most Dominicans feel about the current economic and political situation?

.
A. Well, to be sure, they have had their taste of recent food offerings and very much want to change the chef. Stated perhaps even better, they at least want to eat, regardless of who is cooking. Let?s face it, politicians are the same the world over and promises are one thing and reality another. Anytime you get a politician that promises the moon, the stars and some undiscovered distant galaxy ? the first question you MUST ask is how? Who is going to pay for it? During the last Presidential campaign James Carville came down to work with Hipolito Mejia and what was instituted was a basic James Carville campaign. You know, soak the rich, let?s get those corporate fat cats, vote for us ? we will give you free everything, yada, yada, yada. No one ever asks ? how? They promised national government medical insurance, social security, and so on. If the US government Social Security system is bankrupt, or very soon to be, how can an emerging economy such as the Dominican Republic pull it off? Where is the money coming from? The Dominican people soon found out in 2000 and 2001. Higher sales taxes, which jumped from 8 percent to 12 percent overnight, an incredible amount of US Dollar foreign loans (government bonds), higher government fees and taxes of other kinds across the board. And not to mention a devaluation of their national currency because the international financial community quickly realized what all this would mean. So, in the least, I guess the idea that there really is no such thing as a free lunch has finally sunk in. You know, all these things and ideas are great, meaning free government healthcare, etc., etc. but just like everywhere else in the world ? politicians often side step the issue of who and how it will be paid for. After the reality sets in, the general public soon understands nothing is for free and the question of is all this really worth it??
Question - So, bank deposit interest rates are still very attractive for US Dollar deposits in comparison to US dollar interest rates elsewhere. Why have the rates pulled back?
.
A. Well, you must understand that most Dominicans panicked and started moving their cash or savings out of Pesos and into US Dollars. In fact, according to Central Bank statistics, there are now more US Dollar deposits in the local banks then there are Pesos based deposits. So, the result is, the banks are now flush with US Dollars. Interest rates are a function of supply and demand, and now there is a large supply. However, while interest rates have come down, as you pointed out, they are still very attractive when compared to what you earn with a bank in Europe or the US. Also, it is important to note that interest rates for bank loans, car loans, mortgages, etc., have not come down. So, if you want to borrow money in Pesos, expect to pay anywhere from about 30 percent up to 42 percent in Pesos and from 12 percent up to 15 percent in US Dollars. So, this is not a place to borrow money, but save money ? Yes..


Question - Now that the PLD or conservative party has won the Presidential Elections, what changes do you see in store for the country under Dr. Leonel Fernandez, the new President?
.
A. Well, certainly based upon my own previous experience when Dr. Fernandez was President during 1996 ? 2000 and due to conservations I have had recently, their main priority is to undue the financial mess and return the country to both fiscal responsibility and economic growth. Not an easy task to be sure, and one that I am sure will take at least 18 months or more to show signs of achievement, or at least some achievement. But in the least, you must understand that when Dr. Fernandez was President during his previous term, he paid down the IMF loans and canceled the drawing rights. In effect, he wanted to kick the IMF out, which is a very good thing in my opinion. In addition, any public works projects were financed internally from banks inside the country (in Pesos). So, under the previous PLD administration, the country had very manageable foreign debt and in fact had one of the best economies in Latin America. Of course, that was then and this is now. The best way I can sum it up or illustrate it is, most people seem to feel that the Doctor (no pun intended but it fits), the nurses and the medicine has arrived to cure the patient. However, the patient was fairly healthy the last time around. Now it is the case of try to cure him, get him on his feet securely, and only after that is done, plan on entering him into a marathon race once again. I hope you understand the analogy, but the point is, the population seems to want a change and new direction in government. That is how I sum it up, and how most people I have talked to feel about the situation.
Question - My question really is pointed towards the social aspect, crime and related topics?

.
A. Well. I can tell you it never ceases to amaze me ? in terms of the resiliency of the Dominican people. Despite it all, they are fairly peaceful and very religious people, and they have a great deal of tolerance. Some people in the past have asked me to make a comparison to Argentina, but this is not really fair because they are not equal, neither in the scope of what happened and neither in the nature of the people either. In other words, you had a very large and fairly prosperous middle-class in Argentina that has been somewhat prosperous for some time. The idea of a large middle-class and all the trappings of it were fairly new in the Dominican Republic. So, you had a population that was just starting to see the economic benefits before in terms of the DR. Let me explain it another way.
.
Let us say you loan a Mercedes Benz to a guy for one week, and then you take it away and he has to ride the bus again. He is going to be unhappy, but he only had one week with the Mercedes, so it is not such a shock. Now let us talk about a guy that has been driving a Mercedes Benz for 5 or 10 years, and all of a sudden he looses it. He is going to be highly ticked off ? no?? He is going to be angry because he has gotten accustomed to driving a Mercedes for quite some time. This has become his new standard or norm, and he lost it. I do not know if you understand what I am saying or not, but the first case is the new middle-class in the Dominican Republic and the second or last example is Argentina.
.
In any event, most of my clients have been very pleased with their decision to live in the Dominican Republic and have noted many cultural differences, including this sort of acceptance or tolerance I just mentioned. Do not misinterpret what I am saying. The Dominican People are highly concerned about the economy, their future and probably why they voted out the last government. But, they have not gone amok, looting bank branches and holding massive and sometimes violent demonstrations, as was the case in Argentina. But understand the differences as well.





. Question - Overall you are still positive on the country and about the future prospects with the new government coming in?

.

A. The Dominican Republic still has a number of good things going for it. Its geographic location is one, there is some petroleum and natural gas reserves recently discovered (although not enough to get them into OPEC), they are self sufficient in food production and are in fact net exporters or rice and other agricultural products. The labor costs are still low enough for foreign firms to consider manufacturing facilities, the free zone programs and taxation still fairly attractive in comparison to elsewhere. The country still has large tracts of land for resort and other kinds of development ? enough in fact that I would say they have not scratched the surface just yet. It remains to be an attractive destination for US Dollar and now Euro banking. In addition, real estate prices and cost of living is still very attractive for foreign retirees or expatriates. So, all in all, I would say the long-term diagnostic is positive.

.

The new government taking office does have some work cut out for them. Plus the opposition party still controls the Congress ? at least until the next congressional elections in 2006, so we will have to wait and see what happens there.

.

Question - What is your advice for anyone considering relocating to or retiring in the Dominican Republic?

.

A. Well, I think the lesson to be learned from previous events both inside the country and elsewhere is to think globally and long-term. This is not always an easy thing to do. But, for example, perhaps it is the case you are attracted to the Dominican Republic because of real estate prices or cost of living. Perhaps its proximity to North America is appealing or whatever the case might be. However, while you take advantage of these benefits, remember we live in a world whereby both local and foreign politicians can do things to effect our own financial welfare. So, perhaps it makes sense to diversify investments in a number of places. Perhaps consider a wide variety of choices and that includes planning our your financial affairs also. Dominicans and citizens of Argentina that held some assets in other currencies, even outside the country in the case of Argentina, offered protection against the devaluation of their currency, and in the case of Argentina, a safety net in terms of the prohibition of withdrawing funds from one?s bank account. Of course this was not the case in the Dominican Republic, so the lesson is you cannot paint the world with the same broad brush. Stated another way, each country is unique and has a different way of handling a problem even though the problem might be similar to what has occurred in another country. Personally I think the Dominican Government handled the banking issue correctly, making sure confidence and access to banking as normal was the order of the day.

.

In any event I do think people who are considering retirement or expatriation to the Dominican Republic should of course do so with their eyes open and consider all the positives and negatives. All depending upon your own personal preferences and issues of importance, you will develop a sense of if the DR is right for you personally. I say this not to sound negative, but to offer a hint of realism. You know that many of our clients love the Dominican Republic for a variety of reasons, but some people do not and they are certainly entitled to their own opinions and feelings accordingly. So, I am fair and realistic in the sense that I do encourage people to explore the country and make up their own mind.

 

[NALs]

Nobody is talking about the re-initiation of the comer primero program, a program that gives the poorest people a chance at eating something.

Nobody is talking about the government employed street cleaners cleaning certain avenues in this capital city.

Nobody is talking about the increase in foreign investment, the highest since Hipolito left!

Nobody is talking about the halt of increase of prices, except gasoline and a few other products.

Nobody is talking about the increase in consumer activities (ie. increase in sales of automobiles - which is a luxury that only goes up when the economy shows sign of progress and other articles).

Nobody is talking about the upgrade our water distribution system (ie. water pipes) are receiving for better water distribution within Santo Domingo and other urban centers.

Nobody is talking about the progress that has taken place lately, but oh the negatives, well let's just say that more than its fair share has been shown.

Maybe its human nature?

 

[Mr_DR]

How about paying for the service first! I'll bet that will fix the problem just fine!


I'm surprised to read this from a person who publicly stated that he adds to the electric problem by not paying his bill!

Everybody knows the problem is people not paying their electric bill, that is why people should not be complaining unless you pay your bill.

This is equivalent to people who don't pay taxes complaining about the situation in the country with public services. Only those who do pay their taxes can complain, otherwise just take your medicine.

Wow Nal0whs,

You killed him with that one.

 

[Mr_DR]

Nobody is talking about the re-initiation of the comer primero program, a program that gives the poorest people a chance at eating something.

Nobody is talking about the government employed street cleaners cleaning certain avenues in this capital city.

Nobody is talking about the increase in foreign investment, the highest since Hipolito left!

Nobody is talking about the halt of increase of prices, except gasoline and a few other products.

Nobody is talking about the increase in consumer activities (ie. increase in sales of automobiles - which is a luxury that only goes up when the economy shows sign of progress and other articles).

Nobody is talking about the upgrade our water distribution system (ie. water pipes) are receiving for better water distribution within Santo Domingo and other urban centers.

Nobody is talking about the progress that has taken place lately, but oh the negatives, well let's just say that more than its fair share has been shown.

Maybe its human nature?

No Nal0whs,

They are never going to talk about anything like that because most of them are not even aware of the many good things taking place there. Most of them dont read a newspaper, and if they do all they do is just go directly to a headline that shows a Penalosa's gibberish opinions on why DR should not develope into a cosmopolitan city because it is too close to Atlanta, Miami and New York.

They think that just by reading these kinds of negative comentaries from an individual that only gives me the impression of another Hippo wanting to be president; gives them all the knowledge about the DR economy.

 

[thepiper]

MR_DR
"It is always amazing how many of you see one negative thing and immediately presume the worst and in the process close your eyes and forget about all the positive that more than outweights a negative. Many of you don't even bother reading any dominican newspapers to see all the big proposed projects as well as major developments that at some point were just dream projects but that are now getting their yellow ribbons cut, and opening their doors for business"

I am sure I stated more than one negative.

"Originally Posted by Nal0whs
Nobody is talking about the re-initiation of the comer primero program, a program that gives the poorest people a chance at eating something.

Nobody is talking about the government employed street cleaners cleaning certain avenues in this capital city.

Nobody is talking about the increase in foreign investment, the highest since Hipolito left!

Nobody is talking about the halt of increase of prices, except gasoline and a few other products.

Nobody is talking about the increase in consumer activities (ie. increase in sales of automobiles - which is a luxury that only goes up when the economy shows sign of progress and other articles).

Nobody is talking about the upgrade our water distribution system (ie. water pipes) are receiving for better water distribution within Santo Domingo and other urban centers.

Nobody is talking about the progress that has taken place lately, but oh the negatives, well let's just say that more than its fair share has been shown.

Maybe its human nature?"

Well their is not be increase in consumer activity what months are you comparing.
What increase in forreighn investment.

The rest of your statement has nothing to do with economic indicaters and more to do with politics. People cleaning the streets every gov. has them. Comer es primero, primero la gente you name it, it nothing but politics.

I am not a negative person, I do happen to live in reality. If I where negative about my country I would have moved my textile operacion to a plant we own in Honduras. I am not saying the world is going to end, nor am I saying there is no hope. What I am stateing is that my goverment is planing to build a metro instead of making the investment in as you state, something as important as the water distribution for the population of Sto. Dgo. did you know that with your growth you have about five years before your water production is insuficient. This is a project that is important and increasingly urgent. Changing the pipes helps stop loss in the distribucion process but does not increase production.

And I am still waiting for some economic indicators from Nal0whs.
P.S. I wonder how the real estate market is these days. I imagin with the booming economy new homes sales must be going through the roof.

 

[Keith R]

Mr. DR, any particular reason you omitted mentioning that the "economy advisor" you quote is John Schroeder of Ascott Advisory?