Hurricane Ike and Current Tropical Storms .. was .. Hey Chris: They're lining up

[CG]

Hi there i am a new member worried to death about going to the dr on sept 17th 2008,me my wife and kids are due to go to bahia maimon can anybody advise us on the weather at the moment and also any idea of what weather is expected throughout september please?????

Dear Horton,

Our weather now is the remnants of Hanna, she has decided to move on north and it's really too early to say about Ike. tomarow we will all have a better idea. If you research a bit you will find that the season 2008 would be a little busy,,, Your asking for the 17th ??, nobody has a crystal ball,, but as said before, if you go into the archives with-in this forum you will find that your trip will most likely not be affected by a major storm.
Please do not worry to death as it's really not worth it. keep looking and watching and reading to the folks on this site and the weather sites.

If you make it here, have a great time !!

lt

 

[horton6966]

Thanks for the information i will search the archives and hope that the weather is ok for our trip.

 

[Chris]

OK, let?s line 'em up one more time ..

- Gustav is Gone.

- Hanna stuck around for days and rained on the parade. The lady is now moving off slowly and the DR will be free of her direct influence in another 12 hours or so. Haiti is not so lucky. Hanna is now expected to head to the Carolinas.

- Ike, like I said before, if I was a poker player, it would be my ace .. No-one really knows .. the prediction picture is very complex with all the other systems around and playing with one another. The voices of reason on this site including myself believe that Ike will move off. The question is how much influence on the DR in the next few days? That remains to be seen.

- Josephine, another.. uhm.. lady, is following closely in Ike?s footsteps just a tad closer to the shores of the DR than Ike. Early days however and we will have to watch and wait.

 

[Chris]

I saw the movie. Really scary $hit :cheeky:

Few people really realize that the weather part of the movie was truth and not so much fiction. I agree with you .. I had sailing nightmares for a long time after reading this one.

By the way, any of you watching the Weather Channel or the Local Weather Girl or Boy or reading statistics, when last have we had three active storms in the Caribbean?. I don?t have time to figure the statistics ...

 

[BushBaby]

I believe it was posted on DR1 just the other day. 1998 & 1999 (see post #4 of this thread as one link to the information!). ~ Grahame.

 

[Lambada]

As of the 5pm NHC advisory Ike is now a Category 1 hurricane.
Hurricane IKE Public Advisory

Wherever it goes, hurricane winds now extend outward 35 miles & tropical storm winds extend outward 160 miles.
I say 'wherever' because models do vary of course.
Tropical Storm: Computer Model Hurricane Forecasts : Weather Underground

If anyone on north coast is still unprepared (!) now would be a good time. Might be a good idea to remove objects which could fly & cause damage in case there are squally gusts.

 

[El Tigre]

Oh this is horrible news Lambada. Everyone brace yourselfs just in case.

 

[Lambada]

Oh this is horrible news Lambada. Everyone brace yourselfs just in case.

It's not that bad, El Tigre. There's a pretty fair chance it's going north of us. We just have to hope by about 170 miles . And even if less, that would only be TS winds, not hurricane force. But you remove flying objects in case of gusts. There will still be rain though.

We just have to hope the GFDL track is wrong - that's the only one which has it slamming into the north coast.

 

[MikeFisher]

sorry that i missed the afternoon updates,
threads with Chris on are always up to date.
our internet been down 1:30-6PM this afternoon.
after the sun came out around 1PM we had mostly rain again the rest of the day on the east.
Hanna is gone,
and i think that rain been enough everywhere.
Ike is a hurricane, no surprise,
he had been forecasted to be so much earlier than he finally reached the status.
i totally agree with Chris on Ike,
his actual way would bring him far enough north to not get a thing more than wavy offshore Sea even on the northshore.
but the conditions he will finally face when coming closer are not done yet, a big percentage of those conditions depend on the development or destruction of Hanna.
the computer models go in case to all possible directions, from straight NW to open water and to down in the Mona Channel running over PC and making a 2nd landfall in the middle of the southcoast, it depends what actual or in different areas predicted conditions he will find on his way the next 3-4 days. so the models are actually no help, he is a joker hidden somewhere.
the north coast should just stay prepared for an other 5 inches of water over the weekend, specially at the danger areas of rivers and where mountains are weak to cause slides. if Hanna goes on moving on her actual path i would say in 24hrs the models will get a good idea of present surrounding conditions when Ike arrives(where ever that may be in case of distance), so by then the models will come much closer in their predictions and show a much more accurate picture of his way.
somebody asked in a prior post this afternoon about a 'superhit' in case 2 hurricanes come together.
such never happens(happened, yet).
when two hurricane formations close in to each others within less than 1000 miles of distance they start a little 'fight' about their power resources, they do not unite, they take their power from the same sources/water bodies/helping winds, so such a 'monster fight' decreases both, the history never showed any case where 2 storms closed in to each others and increased power as something like one superstorm.
Josephine is by far too far away to say something accurate.
actually on a way where she would follow Ike's path,
but we need at least 5 more days before Josephine will be predictable.
even on a straight western path she could not hit any land in less than a week from now.
hope the connection stays up now.
good eve to all
Mike

 

[Chris]

El Tigre, although it sounds just so bad, the difference between a tropical storm and a hurricane is only 1 mile an hour wind. Remember, storms are classified into their categories by wind strength. This is of course an easy one to measure. It is harder to measure things like damage potential or amount of rain in a storm. Tropical storms can be as devastating as hurricanes.

But Hillbilly, Mike and I consider that Ike looks like it will pass the DR and Lambada rates it a pretty fair chance. Let us hope that all this combined wisdom does it for the DR as Ike is growing into a major hurricane.

 

[Robert]

I see Ike is now a Cat 3

 

[Chris]

OK, let?s quickly line them up again ..

With Hanna moving off, we have basically Ike and Josephine to think about with a wave just leaving the African coastline.

Hurricane Ike is becoming a major storm. Early indications are that it will pass the DR north coast but I stress ... IT IS EARLY DAYS ... I am never comfortable if there is a storm close by. The question is how far off shore Hurricane Ike will pass. We have to keep watching it to see if it nudges a little out to sea.

Josephine looks benign at this stage and looks like it will run out to sea.

The wave after Josephine will declare itself in the days to come.

 

[Hillbilly]

Yeah, Ike went hurricane a few minutes ago, and the folks at FOX are saying that it worries them more than Hanna....seems that IKE might go a bit south of west and that would bring us more rains...Not bad for us, really, but would be disastrous for Haiti. And could be really bad for Turks and Caicos and the Bahamas..

Did you all see Hanna's track??? She absolutely made a 360 turn just off the Haitian coast...That I have not seen before...

HB

 

[Chris]

Did you all see Hanna's track??? She absolutely made a 360 turn just off the Haitian coast...That I have not seen before...

HB

We had a similar storm a few years ago ... turning a complete circle ... for the life of me I cannot remember which one but the moment things slow down a bit I?ll look it up.

 

[MikeFisher]

HB,
Hanna is a Lady,
ya never 'now what they are up to.
i did not expect Ike to grow that fast at the position where he is right now,
he's cat3 and most models name him a 4 by tomorrow afternoon.
looks like Hanna moved out too fast to be a real pain for him.
the models been updated 8PM,
the updates look positive for the Island,
their predictions come closer to each others and show him not to hit Hispaniola.
like Chris said often before,
we have to wait for the real distance to the northcoast when passing by.
looks like more rain,
i even expect it down here on the east,
but who knows?
the little actual update over here is that we did not have more rain in Cabeza de Toro, it's cloudy, wind is calm.
Chris,
i know you do a hell of research and stats,
sure we are US tecs related over here,
take a look on the european shots,
i use them very often and compare them with the over here Data,
angels are not very favorable for it's actual position,
but that Eye, the huge storm area and the wide area of clouds he is pulling with it look like a lot of rain with high wind forces.
check out this one:
EUMETSAT IPPS animation - MSG2 IR 10.8
his actual course looks good for our island,
that's the most important.
'nite
Mike

 

[MikeFisher]

the turnarounds:
TS Andrea(became hurricane afterwards) last year

PC infamous Jeanne in 2004 did a real full turn as a Cat1+2

they are the only ones i could find during the last decade,
it is a very rare occassion that they turn and go against the path where they came from, or even do such a full 360 and go on.
Mike

 

[Chris]

Thanks for those turnarounds Mike. Jeanne (and how can I forget Jeanne!) was the one I was thinking about and as you say, indeed a very rare occurrence.

To add to your summary of the 8pm advisories, there was one sentence that spoke volumes to me. "IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHAT IF ANY LAND AREAS MIGHT EVENTUALLY BE AFFECTED BY IKE."

And that is really the real story. It is early days, there is a very angry storm out there and we have to watch and wait to see if it affects the DR. There will be sufficient notice but I do hope everyone North Coast direction has a clear evacuation plan and can put it in process quickly. Ike will be a major hurricane before too long.

Agreed Mike, it looks positive for us now, but it may be by a narrow margin, nailbiting time and a close shave all at once. I?ll check the European shots .. thanks! Aha, almost forgot to mention .. its nice to bat the ball around with you Mike.:laugh:

 

[Chris]

Good heavens, we?ve hardly taken a breath and Ike is a Category 4 storm. This is incredibly fast development.

Movement still to the west-northwest with that turn predicted for around 48 hours out. (This is the one that is of concern)
Speed near 17 miles per hour
Maximum sustained winds an incredible 135 miles per hour .. 215 kilometers per hour with higher gusts
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles and tropical storm force winds up to 160 miles per hour (this is another the piece that concerns us as things stand at the moment)
And estimated min central pressure 948 MB
The storm is currently around 600 miles north of the Leewards
The Turks and Caicos better start preparing
The Bahamas better start preparing
Cuba can teach us all a trick or two about hurricane safety and they better have the evac trucks ready and gassed up

The Dominican Republic and Haiti should be prepared already. If not, get your hurricane preparedness plan in order quickly and be prepared to carry it out decisively and quickly. With a storm this strong, if it comes near the north coast, you will absolutely need to evacuate.

For those die-hard northcoasters that say .. It has never happened and it won?t happen this time .. remember what Cabrera and Cabarete looked like after Jeanne and Jeanne was hardly a hurricane. Get prepared already OK. (I can hear them groan!)

About now is the time to start taking the model guidance seriously into account and also where it gets interesting. One composite ensemble puts the track near Hispaniola and Eastern Cuba, while two others kick the storm northerly near the northeastern Bahamas. The forecasters have placed their track predictions in the middle between these two and in agreement with yet another composite model.

Here is some early cycle track guidance
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/northatlantic/track_early2.png
"Plot provided courtesy of Jonathan Vigh, Colorado State University. For more information about this graphic, click here."

 

[Chris]

For those that are inveterate storm watchers like me ... here is some reading
- one of the best faq's about tropical storms
- the story about flying into the eye of Hurricane Hugo

 

[MikeFisher]

the pleasure is all mine Chris.
and yes, it is a Cat4.
his fast forward movement is one of the details i really hate on this one,
how many big ones you tracked moving forwards that fast when Cat4?
he will pass somewhere north of our Island,
models degrease its hurricane strength by a few miles per hour then,
to a 'just Cat3'.
why?
'cause he will face conditions not top for a storm formation.
i say to hell with that because it is no little Hanna
nor a small Jeanne(with all due respect to her incredible fatal 3000 killings compared to just 6.9 billions of damage),
if his forward movement gets slowed down by any kind of 'non favorable in the way conditions' he will slow down, on it's forward speed, but what effect has a slowdown of it's forward speed together with really hot SSTemps we have here? i wish to see him going on moving as fast as he ist without any disturbance against that fast movement. he is not wide, but when close enough to let 'em feel his winds he will be completely different to the tropical storms we know over here which's highest danger comes from their rainloads.
whereever he hits(hopefully nowhere) his rain will just be an additional 'freebie afterwards'
actually he is on it's way to pass us far north and fast.
stay on your way bro
Mike