Everybody always talks about "a Hurricane is coming this way". To me, the important thing is to know what the effect will be where I am as it passes by. Because the chances are that it will pass by - but how far away? And what does that mean in real terms?
Well, generally speaking, you only get Huricane force winds and weather (greater than 70 mph winds, which will take a weak roof off a house) within 15 to 25 miles of the center. The eye is usually only a few miles in diameter. Within 35 to 60 miles from the center you will get tropical storm force winds (from 40 to 60 mph) which will do damage to a small house. At 100 miles away it will generally be a near gale or gale (30-45 mph that might knock down a tree.) For the land-lubbers, a gale is a heavy storm with driving rain that you don't want to go out into.
You can find a good reference to Hurricane Categories at
http://www.srcc.lsu.edu/OEP/hurr_scale.html.
NOAA's 11:00 am report gives the following:
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM.
For those interested in the Beaufort Scale denoting the Force of the Wind, please see
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lot/webpage/beaufort/ .
BTW, Sir Beaufort's first name was Francis!
My prediction on Frances (the Hurricane) is that it will pass at least 100 mi north of Hispanola. Historically storms on this track tend to veer north west (except for those that don't :-) . However, we'll only know better on Sun-Mon.
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Hurricane Frances
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