Current Caribbean and Atlantic Weather

[Chris]

Originally Posted by LynnCox

Thanks for the "factoid" Chris...I was very curious about what names they were going to use next. I had emailed NHC a couple of days ago and of course, no response! I'm sure we'll be needing those names with 50 days to go....

Lynn

Uhm... a storm named 'Alpha'. My brain conjures up strange and 'science fictionish' type scenarios...

[Chris]

The large area of cloudiness and showers above is, stretching from the Central Caribbean Sea, East-NorthEastward across Puerto Rica and the Virgin islands and Northward into the Atlantic, is associated with a broad area of low pressure over the Western Atlantic.

For us, additional heavy rains are on the cards. As our island is already waterlogged and wet, and the rivers are full, we could have flooding and mudslides in those areas that are prone for this.

The good news is that the rains should be all over in a day or two and we should be back to sunny and hot... but the flooding and mudslides usually continue after the rains stop.

[DunHill]

Originally Posted by Chris

As our island is already waterlogged and wet, and the rivers are full, we could have flooding and mudslides in those areas that are prone for this.... but the flooding and mudslides usually continue after the rains stop.

And this worries us.
Anybody in Luperon, who can give us some local details, we have a job to do there and we don't like surprises

Arjan
info@dunhill.ws

[Chris]

An unusually large low pressure system has remained nearly stationary overnight. We have a 1005 MB Low just West of us, near 19 North, 75 West. Moist surface flow is continuing to produce scattered moderate to strong convection over the Central Caribbean, from Nicaragua to Hispianiola and Puerto Rico. We're beginning to see local flooding. The good news is the end is in sight for this specific system. Another 24 hours or so, and we should be clear of it - perhaps still dealing with some flooding and mudslides.

Right behind it though, is a tropical wave over the Lesser Antilles that is now along 62 West and just South of 20 North, moving at 8 - 12 miles per hour. The wave is entering an environment of deep Westerly and cyclonic flow over the Caribbean and the Western Atlantic. The early weather advisories say that it is difficult to locate the tropical wave's signature while it is entering into the widespread disturbed weather around us at the moment. It is virtually impossible to see a cyclonic wind shift.

This is defnitely a set of conditions worth monitoring and for today, we'll do just that. http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh.html

Careful on that Luperon trip, Arjan - Take rain-gear and don't climb ladders in the rain For this system, winds may gust to near tropical storm force in some of the stronger thunderstorms.
.

[FireGuy]

One of the few times this year during the Hurricane Season that this posting has been up on the website of the National Hurricane Center

There are no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic at this time.

Gregg

[Chris]

And just a little later Gregg, their winter update was posted... Ugh! But then again, I take a break from weather duties for winter so it is a good thing for me..

Anyway, Dolores asked that I post updated information in view of the Presidente Music Festival this weekend. With the 5.30 pm advisories, the forecasts hardly changed. The timing period that the forecasters are quoting for dryer weather, are "a few days", "a couple of days" and "late week".

In short, the advisory is : A large band of cloudiness and thunderstorms extending from Central America NorthEastward over the Caribbean Sea, Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and then continuing Northward is associated with a broad low pressure system and an upper-level trough. Additional heavy rains and possible flooding associated with this system are expected primarily over portions of the Northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands Puerto Rico and Hispaniola over the next day or two. (You will see the Virgin Islands added here from previous advisories as the weak tropical wave is dumping some rain on them, while it is being absorbed into the large low pressure"

Looking at the satellite now, we seem to be in for a little break and then more rain. http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh.html

Again, this broad low pressure is slow to move. Hopefully by late Friday it will start clearing so that the music festival can proceed without interruption.

So, I think you may just be correct Dolores... with the tropical wave being absorbed into the broad low, we may not see much effect from the wave, and this will mean a little earlier cessation of the rain. We deserve a dry spell

In two days, the moisture axis will still be very close to Puerto Rico and to us, providing an enhanced chance of rain, but not as much as we've had lately.

For the music festival, a fairly safe bet would be to say Friday is still quite 'iffy' but beginning to dry up, Saturday we'll see improvement and dryer weather and Sunday could well be a beautiful day. This all of course if nothing else changes and this darn system keeps moving..

(Eeek! there are no safe bets in this business, but we'll add a lot of hope and good wishes)

[Chris]

Here on our corner of the earth, it is still wet wet wet. Most areas experienced soft penetrating rain all night long and this will continue for a few days yet. http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh.html

We still do not have excellent news to report for the Presidente Festival. The main problem continues to be heavy rain with abundant moisture being advected over Hispaniola, Puerto Rica and the Virgin Islands. Upper level outflow is increasing over our area, and with an upper high near 15 North and 75 West plus Easterly flow, much of the moisture is being advected towards Central America. To counteract this, further heavy activity from the Windward Passage to over Nicaragua continues to move over the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico.

A second surface trough is triggering scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms over the far NorthWestern Caribbean, so they are not much dryer than us.

The overall pattern is still not expected to change much over the next five days. We may see the rains continue over Puerto Rico and Hispaniola into early next week if everything remains as it is now. We will however have sunny spots starting to appear from Saturday onwards....

My daughter was travelling between Santiago and Puerto Plata/Sosua between 8 and 9 last night. She reports very little traffic on the road, quite miserable road conditions with tree branches torn off in some places and scattered across the way and new potholes appearing where there were none before. So, y'all be careful out there!

Just a little fun this morning, specially for Dunhill, here is the space weather for today (just before mould starts growing out of my ears or something...) NOAA sunspot Region 808 continues to produce major solar flare activity as it rotates to the center of the visible surface of the Sun. On September 13, this sunspot region produced three solar flares that resulted in strong (R3) radio blackouts. A large Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CME) erupted during one of these flares, and is expected to create a significant geomagnetic disturbance late today or early on September 15. A moderate (S2) radiation storm is in progress following yesterday's flare activity. Active Region 808 has decayed slightly over the past 48 hours; however, it is still a large and complex sunspot group capable of producing major flares. Because of the current position of this region on the Sun, further flare activity has greater potential to impact Earth. Major flare activity over the next few days may result in significant geomagnetic and radiation storms. The threat of significant solar activity from Region 808 will diminish as it rotates to the far side of the Sun on September 21-22. Agencies impacted by space weather storms should continue to closely monitor space weather conditions during the next week.

[DunHill]

We left this morning at 05:00 from JD to SD, we had a swimmingpool in the back of our truck, in Luperon, SUN and a few clouds, i can accees DR1, that means my job is done .. back to the rain.

btw very strange and bad signals from the sat's .. but we did it i think

[Chris]

The heavy rains were mostly moving from Puerto Rico over the ocean today... and some area in the DR had a little break and even a little sunshine. If you look now, http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh.html, you'll see the cloud cover beginning to move over Hispaniola again. Santo Domingo should be experiencing quite wet weather round about now... Most of the activity of this system will be focused on us from now on, for a few days yet.

[Chris]

The stagnant pattern over the Caribbean is still affecting the islands of Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, Jamaica and the waters offshore. Yesterday we saw some sunshine, interspersed with soft penetrating rain and some thunderstorms. A surface trough stretches from the tip of Honduras/Nicagagua to Jamaica and through the Windward Passage and deep tropical moisture SouthEast of this axis is still is producing these scattered showers/thunderstorms that we experienced over the past week.

This pattern is expected to continue till around the middle of next week. I'm hoping that from tomorrow onwards, we may begin to see slightly less rain on a daily basis as drier air is trying to work its way in from the East. The formal forecast however is by Monday or Tuesday we'll start seeing a little less activity and by mid-week, we may approach our usual sunny and hot status. http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh.html

A quick look over the Atlantic, three tropical waves are riding in like soldiers.. but it is much too early to worry about these.