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For many, for reasons of family, religion and tradition, Christmas is both a moment of reflection and celebration; a time to look back, take stock and to consider what might lie ahead.
By any standard 2008, the year now passing, has been momentous not least for the way in which greed, worthless financial paper and the fraud-driven economic crisis that began in the United States, resulted in the near collapse of the global banking system and the disappearance of economic confidence; leaving a shocked world to cope with a sudden and deep recession.
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It was also the year in which the world saw oil, food, commodity and shipping prices soar as speculation drove markets ever higher until global economic contraction made clear their unsustainable nature.
Despite this there were some signs of possible future hope: the US people elected their first black President on a platform of change and there was a broader recognition that climate change was real and threatening.
For the Caribbean itself, 2008 was a year of controversy in which the acrimonious debate surrounding the signing of the Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) between Cariforum with Europe, became very public. It was also the year in which the regional integration process all but seized up with disintegration and a failure to progress becoming the norm; when the people’s frustration began to show as they changed their governments in Barbados, Jamaica, Belize and Grenada; and one in which the ever rising tide of violence and crime left nowhere untouched.
But what of 2009 and the years beyond given that the year past is in reality just a small part of an endless continuum of change.
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As CARIFORUM, we have placed firmly the priorities of Small and Vulnerable Economies (SVEs) in the agenda of the World Trade Organisation(WTO). As a result, whatever the outcome of the ongoing Doha Round, our economies will not have to liberalise further on a multilateral basis.
As CARIFORUM, we fight incessantly in Brussels, in Geneva and everywhere else, the erosion of the market access we have achieved in CARIFORUM for bananas, rum and sugar. As CARIFORUM, we have placed the achievement of competitiveness as a central requirement for sustainable development of African Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) states.
This is reflected in the revised Cotonou Agreement; in a number of CARIFORUM National Indicative Programmes (NIPs), as well as in the supportive programmes of our tenth CARIFORUM Regional Indicative Programme (CRIP), for an amount almost three times as big as the ninth CRIP.
But it is the whole set of precedents achieved by CARIFORUM member states in our EPA with the European Commission that truly stands apart.
Because our EPA is the first truly asymmetrical agreement between a region of developed and a region of developing countries.
On November 24, Britain’s Chancellor of the Exchequer (Finance Minister), Alistair Darling, proposed increasing a tax that already impacts negatively the Caribbean and other vacation destinations. He did so ostensibly in the name of protecting the environment and regardless of the effect on tourism, the now struggling industry that underwrites most Caribbean economies or the broader financial implications for a region that is anyway a low carbon emitter.
The announcement is the latest in a long line of European decisions on trade, tariffs and taxation that now quite literally threaten almost every significant export industry that the Caribbean has. Whether it is rum, bananas, sugar, rice, offshore financial services or tourism, changes underway or being proposed in the name of freer global trade, threaten to strip away the economic underpinning of the region.
Over the last decade, Europe has created the conditions for a perfect economic storm which seems set to hit the Caribbean at just the moment that a deep and prolonged global recession overtakes the regional economy, causing fresh investment and financing to dry up.
FOLLOWING their participation in tomorrow's Third Cuba-Caricom Summit in Santiago de Cuba, it is to be hoped that the Caribbean Community's Heads of Government will give some personal quality time to the implementation process of the Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) between the European Union (EU) and CARIFORUM (Caricom plus The Dominican Republic).
This seems necessary in view of reported growing concerns that sufficient attention is yet to be paid for ensuring that the best possible administrative arrangements are in place for the smooth and efficient functioning of the Joint Ministerial Council (comprising representatives of the EU and CARIFORUM).
The Dominican Republic (DR) has thought it necessary to make the first move in that direction by coming forward with a declaratory position on institutional arrangements for the implementation of the EPA - the accord which had already been the source of much disagreement and tension before its signing in October by all participating states of Caricom other than Haiti.
On December 8 in Santiago de Cuba, Caribbean Heads of Government and representatives of a range of regional institutions will gather for the third Cuba-Caricom Summit.
The timing and outcome of this meeting is important for both Caricom and Cuba.
The summit will focus on a range of topics including climate change, trade, technical co-operation, energy, natural disasters, as well as education and healthcare. It will genuinely be special, fraternal and supportive with perhaps a quiet emphasis from the Cuban side on increasing the pace of delivery of Caricom’s commitments.
Notwithstanding, this encounter will almost certainly have an unspoken sub-text. That is: what will any change in Cuba’s longer term relationship with Washington mean for regional economic development and Caricom’s future economic relationship with Cuba?
Slowly, ever so slowly the Caribbean is coming to recognise that it is far from immune from the global economic crisis. As developed and emerging markets accept that the world is headed for a severe recession with far from easy to predict consequences, Governments in some but not all Caribbean nations are starting to realise they need to prepare their electorates for the shocks to come.
In the last week the people of Jamaica, Trinidad, St Lucia, St Kitts and Guyana have received the first indications from Heads of Government and Ministers that all may not be well with the outlook for their economies and that there is a need to prepare for a possibly rapid economic contraction.
Although this belated recognition is welcome, just as important will be the need for well explained, swift and most probably unpopular action before the full effects are felt. This may not be easy because the oil rich nations on which the region has come to rely for support are certain to experience problems of their own as their income for oil drops to less than US$50 per barrel.
Moreover the response to any tightening of expenditure and changes in taxation will require opposition parties - which would face precisely the same choices, if in government - the trades unions and the private sector to act responsibly.
Some weeks ago I suggested that the consequences of global economic contraction are likley to be severe and that the extent of the economic crisis and its probable efect on the region needed to be better understood.
I noted that beyond the obvious, a decline in tourism - the industry that has become the driver of Caribbean growth - it would become increasingly difficult to raise capital; investment would slow; remittances would fall; foreign exchange reserves would diminish; exports would lessen; and the private placings and bond issues that governments use to finance shortfalls in recurrent expenditure, would become more expensive, difficult to arrange or may even disappear. The consequences of all this I suggested, could be cuts in government expenditure, higher taxation and a rapid deceleration in rates of growth.
On November 15, the heads of Government from the world's most powerful nations will meet in Washington to discuss how to restructure the global financial system.
They will be gathering against a background of the market turmoil that has resulted from unregulated credit ratings agencies overrating sub-prime mortgages in the US; a problem that gave value to worthless paper and which, when realised, has brought down banks, caused governments across the world to have to extend huge sums to financial institutions and has triggered a global recession.
By common consent these problems have not been helped by the fact that the world’s multilateral financial institutions and systems of regulation and oversight were designed for a slower and less joined up world.
When OECD and emerging nations leaders meet they will be considering changes to a global financial structure put in place before economic globalisation, instant communications, twenty four hour live television news coverage, electronic connectivity between markets, or the economic power of China, Brazil, India and Russia to move markets existed.
In an effort to forge stronger ties with the Dominican Republic, the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) has established a Task Force which held its first meeting on Tuesday, 4 November 2008 at the CARICOM Secretariat, Georgetown, Guyana.
The CARICOM Task Force on CARICOM – Dominican Republic Relations, which was established in 2007, is charged with the responsibility of making recommendations to the CARICOM Conference of Heads of Government on how to improve and enhance the existing relations between the Community and the Dominican Republic, including the relationship within CARIFORUM.
Delivering opening remarks this morning at the meeting, CARICOM Secretary-General, HE Edwin Carrington reposed confidence in the membership of the Task Force, noting that it was a very competent team “quite capable of discharging the mandate of the Conference…in an efficient and timely manner.”
Three weeks ago there was an almost tangible sense of fear in Europe. Then families and individuals realised for the first time in their lives that their savings and pensions could disappear if market confidence fell further and shares in banks plummeted to levels at which their viability became questionable.
The trigger had been the drying up of credit between banks as it became apparent that a significant part of the traded paper that they held was backed by mortgages and a range of financial derivates of uncertain value. To make matters worse this ‘paper’ that had been given investment grade status by powerful but unregulated US credit ratings agencies had been sold on globally. The effect was for banks everywhere to not know which other institutions to trust as they could not determine whether the assets they held were or were not quite literally backed by instruments worth less than the paper they were printed on.
Only then did governments in Europe led by the United Kingdom, recognise that they could no longer consult quietly and consider measured options. They realised that if they did not act immediately to restore order and stem public fear there would be an unsustainable run on their banking systems. This led them to the previously unthinkable: the partial nationalisation of some of the biggest banks, an approach with important variations subsequently adopted by the US and many other developed nations across the world.
Focus on implementation in CRNM/CARICOM tango
Finally the on-and-off official signing ceremony for a full Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) between the Caribbean and the European Union (EU) is over.
The divisions that surfaced among proponents and antagonists for a delay to make it a more improved partnership will linger, as rancour from passionate debates slowly evaporate with the passage of time.
For now, as Guyana prepares to add its signature this week to those of last Wednesday's 13 at the Sherbourne Conference Centre in Barbados, with Haiti's to come much later, the question of immediate relevance is: How prepared are the 15 CARIFORUM countries (Caricom's 14 and the Dominican Republic) for what may well prove more challenging than what took more than four years to negotiate, the implementation process of this new historic relationship being forged with Europe?
Articles on Trade with Caricom