2014 Hurricane Season

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MikeFisher

MikeFisher

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Feb 28, 2006
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i will start our 2014 stormy topic today.
no worries, there is nothing any near nor awaited to be near for our Isle, the starters of this season are located well west of our Island Paradise.
DerFish,
Colorado may not be a typical Destin for a Beach Vacation or Hurricane Watches, but as a matter of fact the Colorado State Univercity is housing some of the finest Storm Researhc and prediction Brains of the Globe, i could not name any institution which i would give more trust in their long range over all climatological outlooks than to them.
but such over all seasonal long range outlooks are anyways worthless for us People, as they do not reflect dangers for any areas, it is just running numbers, statistics for the scientific working pros. and of course such numbers are used by the clueless stus like CNN and other medias to run their AD$$$$ bringing Hypes about nothing.
don't blame the great state of Colorado, they have the brains those TV guys clearly miss.
and you don't need to live on a beach to look and study and understand satellite images and statistics from passed decades and watertemps etc etc etc.

Mike
 
MikeFisher

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
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as every season, also this season the media hypes on the long range season outlooks with predictions for the season done by several worldwide located institutions, forecasting over all if a Season will become hefty or average or calm or whatsoever, forecasting total numbers of storms to be awaited, guessing on how many of those guessed storms will assumingly become a hurricane and then how many of the guessed for storms who become a maybe hurricane will then assumingly become a mayor hurricane.
Forget about all that Crap, Guys, just forget it, as it is completely unimporatnt for Us normal average citizens of places where a Hurricane Season Exists.
the data collected and then calculated into a forcast by institutions like the Colorado State(my prefered one) is only of use for professional researchers and of course for the CNN world-Hype Up crap Media, it has zero influence on us average folks and it does not indicate not the slightest bit of more or less or average or whatsoever danger to be awaited out of a season for the different specific locations where we all live or plan to travel to during this season.
for the individual citizen living/visiting a Hurricane frequented coast/area from now til end november, it does NOT matter if a season is expected or will even really finally run as below average, average or above average in case of numbers of named storms and their powers etc, because very most of those storms, many or few, will not come any near Us, they will exist somewhere, maybe even somewhere where people live, but not at our place, so they have no effect on us.
during a slow calm season with very few storms only ONE storm hitting a specific area will make that Season a history recored devastating season for that specific area, even that the rest of the world will state "what a nice smooth season, nothing happened, so nicely below average", and on the opposite end a active season with many named storms may finally not provide many hits if any, active but harmless, lol.
so lets just forget about those season outlooks and their numbers, as they have zero effects on our real live anywhere, and end that theme right here in the first post.

Mike
 
MikeFisher

MikeFisher

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Feb 28, 2006
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the next media hype is the famous word ""El Ni?o"".
yeah, the same as the over all numbers season outlook mentioned above, it is something that does not indicate if Your or My place will get hit or not, hit hard or soft, if we will have a beachBBQ on september 18th or a washout under 200mphrs winds.
the el Ni?o effect is an other researchers pattern, who's relations to the following season's/months storm development/movement is observed and researched by scientists, it will take many many more years or even decades before we will get the full idea about that stuff, til then we have to leave those things to the guys with the brains for those things, and that's def not us, lol.
as historical facts we had El Ni?o seasons which provided with high numbers of storms, and we had non-el ni?o seasons which stayed extraordinary calm, the exact opposite of what a El Ni?o event would suggerate to the public, at least according to the misleading hyping up Media on YV(and internet).
the same we had below average forecasted seasons providing finally record high numbers of named storms and vice versa.
so the over all long range season long lasting far ahead of time done things like
"awaited number of named storms"
"El Ni?o" or "La Ni?a" effect
etc etc
are useless for us here and their theme ends here for the topic.

Mike
 
MikeFisher

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
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finally, let's start with what is important to us people living/vacationing on the Hurricane coast of the Atlantic Basin, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.
It's Sunny and windfree here today, and this sunday will stay that way, no further forecast for this weekend necessary.

as the Season officially started today, means that everyone who lives on a coast in above named regions, should already have finished the hurricane/Storm preparedness of his/her home, to b eready at any time a Storm would be announced to come close to the homegrounds.
Ocean Temps are in the important areas of the Storm developing mainregions on normal levels, no record highs, no record lows, all looks like it looks very most of the years since Humans observe the Stormy Phenomens in the Tropics.
this early in the just started season we have the usual SAL(an layer of dry air from the african Saharan Desert) in the Atmosphere between the caribbean Islands and the african westshores/Cape Verde Islands, which is a slow down/hindering factor for upcoming storms to grow up quick and strong. the same areas show actually a high windshear/difference between windspeed in the higher and lower elevations of the Atmosphere, this is the same as the presence of the SAL a hindering/slow down factor for Storms when they try to form and grow up to size and powers.

looking over the different developing areas for storms who could have the possibility to affect our surroundings, very most looks like we have no early season surprises to await.
but one wide region(2 neighbour regions combined as one) is already Ready for the first pop ups, right now during this just first week of the Season, and that is the western Caribbean Sea and the Southern Gulf of Mexico with the Yucatan Peninsula in the middle as the center. conditions over the waters there are ready to rumble in case of any disturbed weather area pops up.
no need for us to check there into details, as it is far away from our Island Paradise, so we can wait til something comes up and watch it then.
soon i will copy below here some maps where rain and clouds etc can be followed, so everyone can see right away when something big would come up near the own homesoil.
closer to the peak times of the stormy buggers of course we will start to watch the far East off the african Westshores and the waters east of the Caribbean Islands, all at it's time.

and this season they have to stop to blow from mid august til end september, as i will not be on the Island for the first time in 20 seasons at that time frame, haha.

Mike
 
O

Olly

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Mar 12, 2007
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Mike -First indication of develoment in the Atlantic 92L

Here is the Hurricane Centre Brief.

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure located
about 1200 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands has become
a little better organized over the past several hours. However, any
additional development of this system is expected to be slow to
occur over the next couple of days while it moves toward the west or
west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph. After that time, environmental
conditions are expected to become less conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Important to look at the Model Tracks !


Olly and the Team
 
bronzeallspice

bronzeallspice

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Mar 26, 2012
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Let's hope that this tropical depression/possible tropical storm travels to the Greater Antilles as well.

This would surely end the drought.
 
bob saunders

bob saunders

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Jan 1, 2002
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She correct, and as I write it raining hard in Jarabacoa, which is a relief because I've been spending two hours a day watering plants and lawns.
 
O

Olly

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Mar 12, 2007
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What became TD#2 may become a rain event on the South Coast .

It would seem that dry air and some wind shear has dampened down the remnants of tropical depression #2 that is currently to the south of Nevis on the Lesser Antilles. But a tropical wave has developed and is closer to DR.

As a tropical wave it could dump 2-3" on areas of the south coast about 12 hours from now.


Olly and the Team
 
C

Criss Colon

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Jan 2, 2002
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We need as much rain as we can get!!!!
Or we will be bathing in the Ozama river by next week.
The "Dams" are getting "MT"!
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