2019 Hurricane Season

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Cdn_Gringo

Guest
A good turn of events for the DR. I really don't look forward to enduring the predictable aftermath of a TS or hurricane. The inconvenient infrastructure failures and extra work around the house doesn't offset the temporary entertainment factor of a significant wind/rain event.

There will be another opportunity to get all goosebumpy in the not too distant future I'm sure.
 
J

jessies3

Guest
Getting to the dr during Dorian

I am glad Dorian missed the DR. I wonder if flights will be able to land in the DR from the states, specifically out of Miami. I am scheduled to depart Saturday morning from Miami to puerto plata and so far American Airlines is not cancelling any Saturday flights nor offering schedule changes.
 
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SKY

Guest
Landing here will not be a problem, but taking off from Miami could be.
 
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jessies3

Guest
Exactly. Delta flies through Atlanta but even if I switched to that route I wonder if they can fly around the storm.
 
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Cdn_Gringo

Guest
It's not a question of can they, but a question of do they want to fly around a storm. Costs more in fuel, salaries and time. If there is a storm in the way, airlines usually reschedule the affected flights.
 
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ljmesg

Guest
Flight 935 on Saturday to MIA is good to go. Should be good to go. Sunday is going to be dicier.

American offered free flight changes based on Dorian. The Friday flight, tomorrow, is fully booked with these changes. Saturdays 935 back to MIA is now fully booked with more changes.

As of now. AA935 is flying both ways tomorrow and Saturday. Sunday is up in the air for sure as well as Monday.
 
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caribmike

Guest
two_atl_2d0.png


I don't like what is there over Africa. This is huge - could this be the next one?
 
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mountainannie

Guest
ljmesg said:
Flight 935 on Saturday to MIA is good to go. Should be good to go. Sunday is going to be dicier.

American offered free flight changes based on Dorian. The Friday flight, tomorrow, is fully booked with these changes. Saturdays 935 back to MIA is now fully booked with more changes.

As of now. AA935 is flying both ways tomorrow and Saturday. Sunday is up in the air for sure as well as Monday.
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If I were you - I would simply re-book for next week. All the airlines are waiving their fees for flights in and out of FL. Gas stations are already running out of gas. Flying into - or out of FL - in this storm? Which is now predicted to be the biggest to hit in 20 years? Sure - it could swerve........But???

The PetSmart PetHotel in Boynton Beach just left a message for me that they are cancelling the reservation for my cat, MAX and that ALL DOGS must be picked up by Saturday AM. Which is too bad for all those who may have left their dogs there and gone to Georgia already.

As you know, there are only two roads N-S in FL. Last hurricane - IRMA - many folks on the East Coast evacuated to the West Coast - towards Tampa. Then IRMA changed course and Folks had to try to Get Back. One family I know evacuated 3 times - the last time from a HOTEL in Tampa which closed.

So -
Well-
up to you - of course...

I mean - some people Chase Tornadoes.....

(which ripped down the street near me at 90MPH during IRMA)
 
D

drstock

Guest
ljmesg said:
As of now. AA935 is flying both ways tomorrow and Saturday. Sunday is up in the air for sure as well as Monday.
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"Sunday is up in the air" - is that meant to be a joke or just an unfortunate turn of phrase? :)
 
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william webster

Guest
hahahaha

and will be up in the air for a loooong time !!!!
 
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SKY

Guest
Mike, I have some good friends in West Palm and Palm Beach. I would value your opinion on your prediction for that region. Thanks..
 
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MikeFisher

Guest
SKY said:
Mike, I have some good friends in West Palm and Palm Beach. I would value your opinion on your prediction for that region. Thanks..
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I did not follow up further on Dorian.
This morning my best bet would have been that it comes very close to shore or even on land in south florida and wanders a very unfortunate N/NNE along close to shore or even over the East of Florida from S to N.
It is a powerful Mayor Hurricane, nobody want to be in any FL building qhen touched by the eyewall of such powers

But i did not look into details of Dorian since it passed its closest point to us when it was N of Samana nicely far out.
 
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MikeFisher

Guest
What i am looking in to is the tropical waves activities out of our east. Since weeks the forecasts for conditions promise very good to perfect conditions for fast and strong development of any disturbances carried Eto W by tropical waves.
It is not very nice to see that the actual tendencies prooves those forecasts very right.
The conditions are already very good for stormy development and the tendency looks like they will be perfect no later than mid month.
We will have a very long qindow of minimum.6 loooong weeks of such conditions from late 2nd week if september til end of october at least.
There are no indicators for a brwak down on that.
So we very likely will get a bunch of weeks with always something on the make somewhere out there.
The super large and active wave S of the Cape Verde Islands gets by the NHC a very high 40% of chance to develop into a storm in just 5 days from now when it still would be way East of the caribbean with pleanty of time to become anything we won't wanna see.
To me it looks like having quiet some northwards drift, a swing that brings them typically NE of the caribbean islands, after we sh.it our pants for days watching it growing and growing.
It takes several more days before real guesses can be made on it, but it def looks like quiet a Babe with possibilities.

View attachment 3150

View attachment 3149

View attachment 3151
 
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ljmesg

Guest
mountainannie said:
If I were you - I would simply re-book for next week. All the airlines are waiving their fees for flights in and out of FL. Gas stations are already running out of gas. Flying into - or out of FL - in this storm? Which is now predicted to be the biggest to hit in 20 years? Sure - it could swerve........But???

The PetSmart PetHotel in Boynton Beach just left a message for me that they are cancelling the reservation for my cat, MAX and that ALL DOGS must be picked up by Saturday AM. Which is too bad for all those who may have left their dogs there and gone to Georgia already.

As you know, there are only two roads N-S in FL. Last hurricane - IRMA - many folks on the East Coast evacuated to the West Coast - towards Tampa. Then IRMA changed course and Folks had to try to Get Back. One family I know evacuated 3 times - the last time from a HOTEL in Tampa which closed.

So -
Well-
up to you - of course...

I mean - some people Chase Tornadoes.....

(which ripped down the street near me at 90MPH during IRMA)
Click to expand...
A friend flying in on the 3:40pm, AA935 today and flying out an hour later to the West. Let you know what happens. The flight is full.

Dorian slowed down from yesterday so nearing the Florida coast was delayed by about a day so this should happen.

Keep you posted if they make it.
 
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mountainannie

Guest
MikeFisher said:
What i am looking in to is the tropical waves activities out of our east. Since weeks the forecasts for conditions promise very good to perfect conditions for fast and strong development of any disturbances carried Eto W by tropical waves.
It is not very nice to see that the actual tendencies prooves those forecasts very right.
The conditions are already very good for stormy development and the tendency looks like they will be perfect no later than mid month.
We will have a very long qindow of minimum.6 loooong weeks of such conditions from late 2nd week if september til end of october at least.
There are no indicators for a brwak down on that.
So we very likely will get a bunch of weeks with always something on the make somewhere out there.
The super large and active wave S of the Cape Verde Islands gets by the NHC a very high 40% of chance to develop into a storm in just 5 days from now when it still would be way East of the caribbean with pleanty of time to become anything we won't wanna see.
To me it looks like having quiet some northwards drift, a swing that brings them typically NE of the caribbean islands, after we sh.it our pants for days watching it growing and growing.
It takes several more days before real guesses can be made on it, but it def looks like quiet a Babe with possibilities.

View attachment 3150

View attachment 3149

View attachment 3151
Click to expand...

The local weather man here posted the meme

"waiting for a hurricane is like being stalked by a turtle"

asi es
 
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mountainannie

Guest
bob saunders said:
Stay safe
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thanks! I will be, I am sure... not as frightened as I was during IRMA - when - although I was personally quite safe - the reports were that there were Tornados with lightening ripping down the road just north of me at 90mph! They do sorta frighten one to death here - what with all the warnings and the ads to go out and BUY - more plywood, and everything. There are on and off shortages at the gas stations and shelves already empty of bread... (but plenty of crackers!)..

During IRMA they started sounding these quite terrifying Tornado Warning Sirens - probably from a school nearby although it sounded as if they were right in my sister's condo.. Warning people, I suppose. As if ANYONE was out in the 90mph winds?

There are folks in mobile homes - who will stay - because they do not have the $$ to evacuate - because they are brave or foolhardy - because they do not want to leave their pets.

The weather folks on the TV are spouting predictions on how the Storm may Move to the North and even off shore - and most of us know that nothing will be known for certain until 12 hours before the arrival. But there is no escape in Florida. It is flat as a pancake. Any place that is higher than 25 feet about sea level is considered "the heights".

Here is this AM prediction cone from NOAA - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/gr...5zk3lI_gUfkRSlrpzM-3bxYJfkSkaLhnZG5Q#contents

"Hotel Reservations" - the best hurricane prep you can make in Florida...

(My sister's condo is on the 2nd floor and we have a hurricane box that would be the envy of anyone who saw it - when this is over - I will post the contents for y'all)

Prayers please for all the vulnerable...
 
L

ljmesg

Guest
Northern Abacos dead center of current predicted path.

This will be a Barbuda redux over Marsh Harbor if that path proves out.

Just brutal.
 
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