What will be the total economic impact on the DR from the COVID19 ??

[CristoRey]

You must live in a protected area such as a gated community.
Come take a drive with me and you can see families living under leaky tin roofs, some with dirt floors, and somedays their only food might fruit from the mango or coconut tree. If lucky they get bananas and rice.
No one drives around delivering food to them

You sir, along with several other
people who post on this forum
would not step foot in some of
places I have lived in this country...
not quite the gated-communities you
dream of living in some day.

My point is no one is going to starve
to death in this country over the next
few weeks and its getting a lot more
attention than it deserves. Are there
people on this island in bad situations?
Yes. Been that way for years and will be
that way for years to come.

 

[Russell]

Folks!
We got to look at the bigger picture here to speculate on the economy of the DR.
First of all the DR Economy is very dependent upon the North American economy. And, what happens in Canada and the USA is an indicator of what happens in the DR. If NA goes into recession then DR goes into recession.
To speculate differently means you have hold back information that we all need to know.
Someone once told me that the definition of a Recession is when our neighbor is out of work; and, a depression is when I am out of work. That is so true and in my time here on planet earth it has happened several times to my family and friends.
Let us not be fooled by wishful thinking ; and, let us not be bothered by Prophets of doom and gloom .

However, let us be positive and heed the words of so many here on Dr1 and think about others and lend a helping hand.. not because it will pay off in the end ; but, it will pay off in good will today.

I know this sounds like a Sunday sermon, but we are in a never before in modern times pandemic and world crisis that does, will and shall impact upon the DR in a negative way.
I am hoping that in two months things will normalize to whatever that state or normality turns out to be.

We just do not know the outcome of this pandemic; but when I read about people having a wedding at Cap Cana basically thumbing their noses at well intended Government Curfews; and Spring Break celebrations on a British Columbia Beach , where there is a high rate of CV-19 and Miami beach the same....
There are those living in denial..... that is where the the virus will bloom.
I once thought the poor and uninformed will be the real problem; now its the rich and ignorant who flaunt the issues at hand.

It is they who will bitch the most when the economy changes and God forbid crashes.....
We need a wake up call; as if this CV-19 is not enough of a wake up call ... now we need one within the other.

I wish I had an answer to the present situation; and having spent most of my life working to improve or even establish good economies in a Micro Economic scale ; this one has me feeling useless.

Russell

 

[Russell]

I just read on MSN that India 'shut down' 1.3 billion people to stay home.
Relative to DR, PM Modi also stated that not to comply could set the economy back 21 years. This is the first I noted than such calculations (although speculation for sure) have been made public.
Interesting .

 

[zoomzx11]

The tie in to the US economy and dependence on tourism will drag the DR wherever this pandemic goes.
I hoped that common sense health practices would reduce the community spread and save us until we get the vaccines.
It appears there will not be sufficient compliance and it only takes a small number of people to spread the disease.
As regards the vaccines I no longer think they will be our salvation.
Small pox vaccinations were started about 1800 and it took 200 years to eradicate the disease.
Why should the CV be any different?
We could find ourselves dealing with this virus for many many years.
Until new case numbers get very low there will not be tourists wanting to come to the DR.
Hard to find optimism in this situation.
.

 

[johne]

Why should the CV be any different?
We could find ourselves dealing with this virus for many many years.
Until new case numbers get very low there will not be tourists wanting to come to the DR.
Hard to find optimism in this situation.
.

However, what we are all seeing everyday is how quickly ppl adapt to a "new norm". I think we need to figure this into our thinking. We have very little to go on at this point as to what will be the "new norm" if the virus continues for years.

 

[chico bill]

The short term impacts will be calculable, but long term if you kill so many businesses and cut the reliable repeat tourist, who lose interest and contacts in DR plus scare off what were potential investors, snow birds and add in existing investors who fear becoming castaways in DR without repatriation flights, who are now wanting to offload their winter villas at bargain prices and I think this will be a 5-year impact, even if a vaccine appears.
If it lasts through 2021 then the long term effects will be too much for me as well.
I can become mobile fairly quickly and find a place where people don't want to live like ostriches.
Wring your hands over Covid and miss living a life - if you wish.
We all will die when a greater entity says "Time's up sucker".
We should enjoy the time we have, not hide behind hot masks which do nothing.
Stress, age and lack of social contact will steal our time.
I vote reopen now and reverse the economic destruction of tourism that has taken the DR 50 years to build.

 

[william webster]

Lest we forget the current gold price which benefits RD....

It has almost doubled recently.... good for the country's coffers

 

[zoomzx11]

However, what we are all seeing everyday is how quickly ppl adapt to a "new norm". I think we need to figure this into our thinking. We have very little to go on at this point as to what will be the "new norm" if the virus continues for years.

It will be interesting to see the new norm develop along with the treatment of the anti maskers and anti vaxxers who jeopardize measures to protect the majority.
Meanwhile donald announced today he is considering plans to refuse admittance to the US of American citizens who are abroad and test positive for CV.
Another knock on tourism.

How about the DR offers free special flight to the US for anti maskers and people who tested positive and are sick with CV?
Do it quick before the WH produces a plan.
This way the DR rids itself of sick Americans and anti mask people.
For good measure toss in the Americans who are residing in DR jails.
Kind of like the way Fidel Castro emptied the mental hospitals and prisons to the US during the Mariel Boat lift.

 

[rvancil]

I was out at the Hard Rock beach this past weekend, which is right next to the HUGE Riu hotel...it was an absolute ghost town. That is a gigantic beach, and there might have been 6 people on it all day, unbelievable. I walked way up the beach and hotels are totally un-kept and show damage from the last storm, roofs ripped off, guard stands flipped over, and vegetation over growth. I just don't see how the country can take this much longer, go to the Sweden model, or getting Covid is going to be pretty far down on the list of problems people are worrying about.

 

[zoomzx11]

The short term impacts will be calculable, but long term if you kill so many businesses and cut the reliable repeat tourist, who lose interest and contacts in DR plus scare off what were potential investors, snow birds and add in existing investors who fear becoming castaways in DR without repatriation flights, who are now wanting to offload their winter villas at bargain prices and I think this will be a 5-year impact, even if a vaccine appears.
If it lasts through 2021 then the long term effects will be too much for me as well.
I can become mobile fairly quickly and find a place where people don't want to live like ostriches.
Wring your hands over Covid and miss living a life - if you wish.
We all will die when a greater entity says "Time's up sucker".
We should enjoy the time we have, not hide behind hot masks which do nothing.
Stress, age and lack of social contact will steal our time.
I vote reopen now and reverse the economic destruction of tourism that has taken the DR 50 years to build.

Reopen now has already been tried all over the world and has been a catastrophic failure.
Reopening early is the primary reason the US is the world leader in deaths and you think its a good idea for the DR?
Masks are a protection for the health of each other and not a hiding device.
Big guy like you cannot suffer a little discomfort or is it the idea of being told what to do?
Try living your life one day at a time.
You seem to be the one "wringing your hands" and whining.
Maybe you are too inflexible?
Lets make the best of the situation rather than revisit fails.
Got any other ideas for the welfare of others or is it all about you?

 

[zoomzx11]

I was out at the Hard Rock beach this past weekend, which is right next to the HUGE Riu hotel...it was an absolute ghost town. That is a gigantic beach, and there might have been 6 people on it all day, unbelievable. I walked way up the beach and hotels are totally un-kept and show damage from the last storm, roofs ripped off, guard stands flipped over, and vegetation over growth. I just don't see how the country can take this much longer, go to the Sweden model, or getting Covid is going to be pretty far down on the list of problems people are worrying about.

Countries around the world that have opened up at the approximate point the DR is currently in have seen gigantic spikes in the number of deaths and cases of CV.
Opening the economy has caused the epidemic to spiral out of control.
How about wearing masks, keeping social distance, hand washing and isolation for a month.
That is what the pandemic experts say will stop the community spread.
It worked in NY and now they are safely opening the schools.
Everyone wants to return to normal but doing it in an unsafe fashion has been tried over and over with the same results.

 

[chico bill]

Reopen now has already been tried all over the world and has been a catastrophic failure.
Reopening early is the primary reason the US is the world leader in deaths and you think its a good idea for the DR?
Masks are a protection for the health of each other and not a hiding device.
Big guy like you cannot suffer a little discomfort or is it the idea of being told what to do?
Try living your life one day at a time.
You seem to be the one "wringing your hands" and whining.
Maybe you are too inflexible?
Lets make the best of the situation rather than revisit fails.
Got any other ideas for the welfare of others or is it all about you?

I will wear a mask if it is required. Not because it does any good.
But lockdowns do not work, and this thing would be in our rearview mirror faster if we didn't.
You have swallowed the bait, sorry you believe the main stream media spoon feeding you. Many have but many others are opening their eyes.
As for living my life one day at a time, I choose to get out of the house, and not live like a rabbit chased by hounds.

Sweden’s Covid Expert Says ‘World Went Mad’ With Lockdowns

The man behind Sweden’s controversial Covid-19 strategy has characterized lockdowns imposed across much of the globe as a form of “madness” that flies in the face of what is known about handling viral outbreaks.

www.bloomberg.com

Lockdowns Never Again: Sweden Was Right, and We Were Wrong

In life, we encounter things that may work in theory but not in practice. Communism is famously one of those things. Time travel is another. With any luck, Americans will soon come to realize that strict social distan...

www.americanthinker.com

Coronavirus is weakening, could disappear on its own: Italian doctor

An Italian infectious disease doctor believes the coronavirus has become less dangerous — and could disappear on its own without a vaccine. Dr. Matteo Bassetti, the head of the infectious dis…

nypost.com

 

[chico bill]

Reopen now has already been tried all over the world and has been a catastrophic failure.
Reopening early is the primary reason the US is the world leader in deaths and you think its a good idea for the DR?

Wrong - The US is number 8 in Covid deaths per capita. You can not compare numbers without counting population, nice try.

And likely less because there are deaths attributed to Covid in the states, because they get extra money for handling them.

And there will be deaths everywhere until immunity strengthens and the virus burns out. The world has to endure that to get past this.
Many weaker people will succumb, if their immune systems are weak. I hate to see them die.

Today Russia announced a vaccine - Are you ready for your injection ?

 

[KyleMackey]

I was out at the Hard Rock beach this past weekend, which is right next to the HUGE Riu hotel...it was an absolute ghost town. That is a gigantic beach, and there might have been 6 people on it all day, unbelievable. I walked way up the beach and hotels are totally un-kept and show damage from the last storm, roofs ripped off, guard stands flipped over, and vegetation over growth. I just don't see how the country can take this much longer, go to the Sweden model, or getting Covid is going to be pretty far down on the list of problems people are worrying about.

Sad state of affairs.

 

[william webster]

The Russian vaccine is untested....

anybody remember another untested medication.....


Thalidomide

 

[chico bill]

The Russian vaccine is untested....

anybody remember another untested medication.....


Thalidomide

They all will be untested until people start getting them and trust people like the Gates Foundation who just loves to use Africans as his guniea pigs.
I never have had a flu shot and, unless forced to, will not get a Covid shot until it's long term use is confirmed to be OK. Maybe fall of 2022

 

[bob saunders]

The Russian vaccine is untested....

anybody remember another untested medication.....


Thalidomide

Apparently of of Putin's daughter has taken the vaccine, 2 shots several days apart. Slight rise in temperature and now has covid anti-bodies and temperature back to normal. Guess we will have to wait and see what happens.

 

[zoomzx11]

Wrong - The US is number 8 in Covid deaths per capita. You can not compare numbers without counting population, nice try.

And likely less because there are deaths attributed to Covid in the states, because they get extra money for handling them.

And there will be deaths everywhere until immunity strengthens and the virus burns out. The world has to endure that to get past this.
Many weaker people will succumb, if their immune systems are weak. I hate to see them die.

Today Russia announced a vaccine - Are you ready for your injection ?

The virus does not burn out and there is zero evidence that immunity strengthens.
Is there a source for these fantasies?

Different countries have different methods of attributing causes of deaths so there can be some disagreement over death numbers.
With 330 million people the worlds richest country has been an abject failure at responding to the epidemic.

Your view of living like a rabbit is juvenile and uninformed.
I too have it tough.
Living with cold ac, giant screen TV, fast internet, on call delivered food and a gym nearby with solid strictly enforced health restrictions.
Some of us make the best of this new reality while others whine , suffer and complain.

We make choices and yours is clearly to feel sorry for yourself and retreat to a world where masks do not work and you trust no one.
You make yourself into a rabbit.
I am fine and making the best of the situation over which I have little control.
The reality is masks will be with us for years.
Must be a bitch to be forced to wear something that you just know does not work.

 

[bob saunders]

The virus does not burn out and there is zero evidence that immunity strengthens.
Is there a source for these fantasies?

Different countries have different methods of attributing causes of deaths so there can be some disagreement over death numbers.
With 330 million people the worlds richest country has been an abject failure at responding to the epidemic.

Your view of living like a rabbit is juvenile and uninformed.
I too have it tough.
Living with cold ac, giant screen TV, fast internet, on call delivered food and a gym nearby with solid strictly enforced health restrictions.
Some of us make the best of this new reality while others whine , suffer and complain.

We make choices and yours is clearly to feel sorry for yourself and retreat to a world where masks do not work and you trust no one.
You make yourself into a rabbit.
I am fine and making the best of the situation over which I have little control.
The reality is masks will be with us for years.
Must be a bitch to be forced to wear something that you just know does not work.

The president of the Philippines just announced that he took the Russian vaccine as well. Hope it works.

 

[Garyexpat]

What do your car dealer clients have to say?

I am wondering about the impact on the price of capital good here, cars, real estate, etc.

I'm a notorious bottom-feeder, stockpile cash and buy at the bottom of markets...

I have been watching the real-estate market lately and have seen less downward movement than I would anticipate going forward. I expect there to be some realy opportunities in the next 6-12 months as businesses fail and peoples reserves dissipate. I am not at all happy to see this however as opportunities present themselves I will be more and more interested in looking to capitalize.