2022 Hurricane Season

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MikeFisher

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
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Nothing new of any threat out there.
The System mid Highway has a short window with good development conditions starting Tuesday,
but favorable conditions will not last long and it is anyways already located a good piece North of the " Danger Path".
From there under given steering winds it could never move straight West.
It's Heading will be a WNW and that direction will make it pass close but Out NE of the Islands.
The systems pushed westward by tropical waves do their best to clean up pavement, but it is still not full ready for something Mayor.

Have a great weekend everyone
 
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MikeFisher

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
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Just keep it under the table.
We may see up to 3 TD before the weekend, but none is for our soil.
The closest system will miss the northernmost islands out on the NE.
So far all looks fine for us.
Depending on birthplace of a system, conditions are quiet ready to support progress.
So we just keep it quiet and let nobody know, ll.
Btw,
Wednesday 21st I will leave the Island again for an other month with the ole folks til Oct 19th,
so that weather better does behave and keep me relaxed a few K-Kms East.
 
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chico bill

chico bill

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Just based on local ground surface temperatures this has to by far be the coolest summer in my 14 years in the Caribbean (PR & DR). Seems only the last 2 weeks were hot.
So given that why would ocean temperatures around DR also not be cooler?
Certainly ocean temperatures near Florida are currently hotter than DR.
Just saw a report from Australia that showed no warming there over the past 10 years.
Since weather is influenced by conditions elsewhere might this super - quiet storm pattern be a reflection of cooler land temperatures in our area.
 
chico bill

chico bill

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william webster said:
Here's an explanation of why we have had no named hurricanes this year --

https://www.cbc.ca/news/science/hur...-august-september-nasa-sahara-winds-1.6567049
Click to expand...
Experts - the world is full of them - like the hundreds of Covid talking heads who were all wrong.
But blaming Climate Change for "lack" of hurricanes is a side-splitter. Since it was supposed to generate dozens more.
I think next we'll hear Climate Change causes hemorrhoids and gout.

Who appoints these experts?
 
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MikeFisher

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
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Careful here.
That this year is so far exceptionally quiet, does not mean that the whole Season will be a quiet year.
So far we simply had a very high amount on dry Saharan Air over the Tropical Atlantic/Highway,
which itself is a significant factor to limit storm development.
And it was the kind of SAL, on different levels of the atmosphere, which is producing a very high Windshear, and other factor bothering Storm development.
The Easterly Wind Levels also been very high this Season so far, but offer since already a week days long windows of low presence for wide areas.
Now,
Sea Surface Temperatures are on their necessary hot levels to fuel storms perfectly and the SAL is cleaning up/diminishing quickly,
so conditions will be ready for the usual line up of Systems in no time, the Season may just start a bit later than usual, it easily can also last due that well longer than usual with strong storms deep into November and Storms forming up even after November finished.
And anyways, It needs just a simple week or 10 days to show a line up of one System behind the other, under good conditions(which we can expect very soon), to send a Train of developing storms on their way towards the Caribbean.
What I miss from the African side so far is large amounts of moisture, the Tropical Waves so far run exceptionally dry.
It is fantastic to have passed this first half of the Season without any worries about anything,
but it would be foolish to let guards down, not be prepared, as it all could run havok over here coming up strong within just a few days time.
The Cup is so far only Half Empty, there is still half a Cup left to spill over your keybord to run the same damages than the first half of the cup could have done.
Let's enjoy the quiet time as long as it lasts, but conditions are cleaning up the pavement, so we can be sure to see shi t running and hopefully it will not be too close to our Island homes.
 
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MikeFisher

MikeFisher

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Feb 28, 2006
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TS Earl is born and will not be of any concern for our Island.
It will stay far enough NE of DR and the present steering patterns will turn it up N and then NE out to the Storm Graveyard.
It should not get a chance to become a Hurricane while near the Greater Antilles.
Effects for DR can be on the East and North Shores for Sunday through Monday evening some wind gusts and it will bring above normal Wave Action,
but nothing of concern to expect for DR Soil.
Have a great Weekend everyone
 
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MikeFisher

MikeFisher

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By later Wednesday a Tropical Wave will hit Atlantic Waters off the African West Shores on a low position,
means IF this one will form something, it has good chances to reach the caribbean by actual steering pattern forecasts.
No way to tell anything about it's power possibilities and IF it will form something at all, until it is already over water for at least 24hrs or better 48hrs,
but it is running on a Latitude which is for Tracking favorable to point towards the Eastern Caribbean Sea.
Conditions over the tropical highway get cleared up more and more by the actually running System, windshear is low to nothing out there.
So far we are doing perfectly fine this season, no danger on the maps,
Island Life is beautiful
 
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MikeFisher

MikeFisher

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While the Tropical Waves are lining up as usual for the peak time now,
there is absolutely nothing in it for us at this time and for the coming weekend.
While by now Powerful Hurricane Earl did quiet some clean-up, the other systems been so far too weak to clear out the atmosphere sufficiently,
so conditions on our Tropical Highway are over all not in favor for a big one to grow upstarting out far East.
Steering patterns will at this time bring all those weak systems WNW wards missing the Eastern Caribbean.
Let's enjoy an other beautiful sunny Storm-Free Weekend
Cheers
 
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KyleMackey

KyleMackey

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chico bill said:
Experts - the world is full of them - like the hundreds of Covid talking heads who were all wrong.
But blaming Climate Change for "lack" of hurricanes is a side-splitter. Since it was supposed to generate dozens more.
I think next we'll hear Climate Change causes hemorrhoids and gout.

Who appoints these experts?
Click to expand...
I knew that was the explanation before I clicked on the link.
6sx1k7.jpg
 
MikeFisher

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
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As I feared already at the beginning of the week,
This system will become a P.I.T.Azz for my sunday birthday on the Ranch.
We will not get a big storm or such, but a windy system bringing a load of clouds and rain near or even right over us.
I hope it dumps down it's rainloads over the Leewards and PR to keep me quiet over here, lol.
Aside of that, nothing out there to be worried about for days to come.
Cheers
Screenshot 2022-09-14 081113.png
 
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