2022 Hurricane Season

[Olly]

Hurricane forcast for 2022​

Colarado State University are predicting an active Atlantic hurricane season in 2022, citing the likely absence of El Niño as a primary factor. Tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures are near their long-term averages, while Caribbean and subtropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures are warmer than their long-term averages. The warmer Caribbean and eastern part of the subtropical Atlantic also favor an active 2022 Atlantic hurricane season.​

Extended range Atlantic Basin hurricane forecast for 2022​

Released April 7, 2022
Tropical Cyclone Parameters Extended Range
(1991–2020 Climatological Average Forecast for 2022
in parentheses)
Named Storms (14.4)* 19
Named Storm Days (69.4) 90
Hurricanes (7.2) 9
Hurricane Days (27.0) 35
Major Hurricanes (3.2) 4
Major Hurricane Days (7.4) 9
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (123) 160
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (135%) 170
* Numbers in ( ) represent averages based on 1991–2020 data.

Landfalling probability included in report​

The report also includes the probability of major hurricanes making landfall:

• 71% for the entire U.S. coastline (average for the last century is 52%)
• 47% for the U.S. East Coast including the Florida peninsula (average for the last century is 31%)
• 46% for the Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle westward to Brownsville (average for the last century is 30%)
• 60% for the Caribbean (average for the last century is 42%)

source https://engr.source.colostate.edu/csu-researchers-predicting-active-2022-atlantic-hurricane-season/

Olly and the Team.

 

[NanSanPedro]

Thanks for the reminder. This is the time to stock up on non-perishables.

Gotta hoard that toilet paper

 

[Olly]

Update on the Probabilities of Hurricane Impact on the Dominican Republic.​

​

CSU Tropical Cyclone Impact Probabilities​

We are debuting a new methodology for calculating the impacts of tropical cyclones for islands in the Caribbean and countries in Central America. We have used NOAA’s Historical Hurricane Tracks website and selected all named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes that have tracked within 50 miles of each landmass from 1880-2020. This approach allows for tropical cyclones that may have tracked through an immediately adjacent region to be counted for all regions that were in close proximity to the location of the storm.
For the Dominican Republic :
2022 Forecast Probability of Named Storm impact 77%
2022 Forecast Probability of Hurricane impact 52%
2022 Forecast Probability of Major Hurricane impact 27%

Source : https://tropical.colostate.edu/TC_impact.html

All these probabilities are significantly higher than the average.

Take precuations and be prepared.

Olly and the Team.

 

[william webster]

Gracias Oliphant...

 

[Olly]

THanks Mountainannie for reminding us of the 2022 Huricane Names . Here they are :
*******************************************************************

Alex
Bonnie
Colin
Danielle
Earl
Fiona
Gaston
Hermine
Ian
Julia
Karl
Lisa
Martin
Nicole
Owen
Paula
Richard
Shary
Tobias
Virginie
Walter
**************************************************************


OLlie and the team

 

[reilleyp]

I am starting a GoFundMe for Q, U, X, Y, and Z. Every year they end up in counseling due to being left out.

 

[El Hijo de Manolo]

Shouldn't they be aiming for a little more diversity in these lists. That looks like the list from 1943

 

[Tamborista]

Shouldn't they be aiming for a little more diversity in these lists. That looks like the list from 1943

I made the list this year!

 

[cavok]

I haven't seen Akmed, Belkis, or Laquisha on the list yet(?).

 

[El Hijo de Manolo]

I haven't seen Akmed, Belkis, or Laquisha on the list yet(?).

Speaking of Achmed as a storm name this hurricane season, reminds me of one of my favorites seen here

 

[Olly]

This was intended to be a serious thread about Hurrcane Information but I guess you all feel it should be in the CLOWN BIN!

Covak, El Hojo, Tamboristo. rielleyP and I am surprised at you WW! Only two weeks to go to the Hurricane Season !!!



Last post by OLLy and the Team on this topic .

 

[william webster]

I meant the 'Thank You/Gracias'.......... always happy for your reports

 

[chico bill]

The government can supply water or lights during normal non storm times.
If a hurricane hits they will throw up their hands in incompetence

 

[MikeFisher]

It all looks normal so far for this time of the year.
the Tropical Atlantic is under highest wind shear, so nothing will form up out of the dangerous East off our Paradise.
as usual for early summer, the hot areas are the SE of the us-coast and the Gulf of Mexico, where the first one/Alex likely will pop up this week.
We here on Paradise Island just sit back(or better on a beach), grab some cold sweetie and watch how the world goes around.
Honestly, I almost forgot that it is this time of the year again already, lol.
But as i work on the water even more than ever, on daily bases, i will keep an eye on that stuff
and of course this DR1 Topic will be the only place where i would talk/write about it.
Life is a Biach, I am one, too
so we will all survive as long as the beer freezers are stocked and connected to some kinda electricity.

Cheers Mates

 

[XTraveller]

Thanks' Mike, glad your are back. Always Appreciate you input.

XTraveller

 

[MikeFisher]

Thanks' Mike, glad your are back. Always Appreciate you input.

XTraveller

i am always here.
just work doe not leave much time for forum chats when the weather is just on it's regular level.
but an other 2 years max and the Fisherman will be retired with plenty of time to ride horses, chat on weather threads and have more fun.

 

[MikeFisher]

Just to chime in so people don't think the weather stuff isn't followed up.
We have a very unusual early season Disturbance out off our far East.
It is located on the southernmost lane of our highway, where such can not form up nor get a spin.
BUT, that far south on the highway we have actually no dry Saharan Air Layers nor any windshear,
so those good conditions deep south will most likely keep this disturbance alive as a NOAA " Candidate".
We will see after this weekend how far northwards it has climbed by then and how conditions come out to be then there closer to the Lesser Antilles.
Direction wise with our low level steering winds on their usual directions, it should not come too much north and go towards the southernmost windward islands, close to the north shores of South America.
There is nothing out there to worry about at this time.
In General, our Highway has that early into the season already some huge portions " Storm ready", conditions are not very bad for those buggers.
But so far nothing in vicinity to get troublesome.

Cheers on a fantastic weekend everywhere for everyone

 

[caribmike]

"We have a very unusual early-season Disturbance out off our far East."
Of course, it starts early. It is my last one before we are off to Germany - so it has to show off...

 

[MikeFisher]

"We have a very unusual early-season Disturbance out off our far East."
Of course, it starts early. It is my last one before we are off to Germany - so it has to show off...

Hahaha.
when will you come over the big pond to Germany?
I left the Island and enjoy german beers since wednesday already with my daughter, but this time we stay only 4 weeks,
coming back wednesday july 20th.

 

[william webster]

Gracias Fisher Man