Tropical Wave 35W Long

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Lane53

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There are robust and strong tropical waves that are evident in the eastern Atlantic between the Lesser Antilles and western Africa. The most notable tropical wave was located near 35 West Longitude. This tropical wave has the potential to be trouble once it reaches the central and western Caribbean this weekend into next week.

This tropical wave can be tracked on the latest GFS model as the model forecasts it to track into the Leeward Islands on Thursday and then affect the Greater Antilles late this week into this weekend. Ultimately, the GFS model forecasts that this tropical wave will cause the development of an area of low pressure in the far western Caribbean by early next week.

Remember that this is just a model run, however, it is interesting and it may be a sign of an overall atmosphere change that eventually will cause these strong tropical waves to develop into tropical cyclones as we head into late June and especially July.
 
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Lane53

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Tropical Update from Rob Lightbrown

Keep a close eye on the tropical waves that are tracking westward across the eastern Atlantic Basin.
The first tropical wave of note was located near 47 West Longitude.
This tropical wave is expected to continue tracking west-northwest and is forecast to try and detach itself from the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone over the next 2 to 3 days.

Right now, development into a tropical cyclone is not expected since there is a band of 40 knots of wind shear to its northwest.
This particular tropical wave is expected to cross the Windward Islands during Wednesday night into early Thursday morning.

After that, this tropical wave will track westward across the Caribbean reaching the western Caribbean late this weekend.
This tropical wave will add to the building heat and moisture in the western Caribbean as each new tropical wave piles up more heat into that area.

Some of the model guidance, including the GFS, NOGAPS and European models tries to spin something up in the southwest Caribbean by late this weekend or early next week and this is something that needs to be watched for very closely.

Two other tropical waves are now coming off of the coast of Africa this morning. Dry air to the north should inhibit deep convection of these tropical waves and I do not expect tropical cyclone development from these two waves.

With that said, these new tropical waves will eventually get into the western Caribbean where each new tropical wave builds more heat into the western Caribbean and increases the chances for tropical development in the western Caribbean.

What do these tropical waves in the eastern Atlantic mean for the rest of June?? As I already mentioned, the tropical wave near 47 West Longitude is not expected to develop over the next few days due to strong wind shear to its northwest, however, it does need to be watched once it is into the western Caribbean late this weekend into next week.

However, stronger tropical waves behind the tropical waves now just coming off of the coast of Africa will eventually track across the eastern Atlantic over the next 2 to 3 weeks and sooner or later, the trough of low pressure now located over the western Atlantic will lift out, allowing for a favorable environment for development. This is an omen for a potentially active late June into July.
 
MikeFisher

MikeFisher

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don't panic Lane,
hey buddy, we are the tropics and we have just few exceptional time periods of the year without some waves out there on the Map usually named the Atlantic Basin.
at this moment the map shows 11 of them, very most much too far to have even in theory any effect on PC or the Island Hispaniola as a wole, and thats the wave-storm-what ever-area wich is of interest here.
the only one of ''may be interest" at the moment is the lil wave SE of the southernmost islands moving with impressive 20+knots of speed westwards, straight west into the caribbean Sea. it will most likely move on that track til it's history.
bothering us?
Yes, at least most likely YES!
b/c by tomorrow afternoon i expect to feel the swell of that bit$$ starting to move through the Mona Channel and mess a bit with my actually extremely cal Fisherman's offshore Sea, we did since a long while even far offshore like during last week's tournament not see any waves over 3ft out there, and that's for open Sea rarely FLAT. i guess we will go back to the usual 5ft average on the offshore and since we have absolutely Zero wind, i guess and hope we will get a bit of a breeze, but most likely most will not feel the difference.
none of the actual visible waves is expected/predicted by any of the countless models to develop in anything more than some scattered showers somewhere out on open Sea.
like usual this time of the year our south coast around Bayahibe has the much better chances to get influenced, but til now i see not even such approaching.
the 2 waves off the african coast are for 2 reasons completely out of interest tonight:
*** too far away to bring anything the next 5-8 days
*** no significant thunderstorm activity visible at any til now
don't panic,
big systems take their time to grow and form, and once they are decided to get big they leave us still several more days to talk about.
looks like you found some interesting internet tools to play with, maybe the NOAA season forecast mixed with the confirmation of the Colorado State Uni confirmation of a predicted above average season and the prediction by the South Carolina State for an even higher above average season this hurricane season.
we can count on 5-8 hurricanes this season and we should await at least 1 mayor Boy or al to make a landfall, but nobody knows when and where and before season's end we will not even know how accurate this year's predictions really have been. the actual run models used for the season's forecast as a whole are just a few years old, they strated in their first year with a "accurate prediction and failed last season 1000%%%, watching and studying those phenomenoms of mother nature is fascinating, at least for myself, it is done since thousands of years and reported, but the data used in computer models is something very new, thingies of our playstation and Wii generation, not much experience yet.
the waves actually on the screen do not indicate any trouble for our Paradise.
let's stay alerted and watch what's going on, but no panic for nothing.
i am myself hot to get an other view on something big 'en vivo', but Punta Cana came out in my 15 years down here as a very bad and boring spot to get such chances.
cheers from humid cloudy starfee skies on the East,
weather smells like a change is needed,
but not tonight
Mike
 
MikeFisher

MikeFisher

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Feb 28, 2006
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Hlywud said:
nothing shown on the National Hurricane centre maps

Atlantic Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Click to expand...

right WUD,
the NOAA's official map for storm watching is clear of course, we have not any kinda storm forming up in the atlantic basin at this moment.
the waves/tropical waves which are out there none of them is asociated with a disturbance, no disturbance means no forming of anything.
but on the other side it would be dangerous to watch just the official storm map, because at most times the biggest dangers and damages for our island do not come from big storms/hurricanes etc tracked on the worldwide TV and Map coverage, most human losses are caused due heaviest rains causing floodings and mudslides in our mountaineous centers and near the big and sometimes even small rivers, most of such rains around the year are not caused by big storm systems and not even during hurricane season, they are caused often by simple Vaguadas which can occur throughout all around the year, like we had for the 2nd year in a row last month May. this year not much flooding but long lasting, last year just 3 days and 2 nights lasting and horrible in it's effects.
Tropical waves at the wrong spot with sufficient moisture to move around with low thunderstorm activity are in most cases more dangerous than the very most mayor hurricanes moving through the atlantic basin without effects anywhere, or just some very windy hours and only 10-15hrs of downpour elsewhere.
sure we have to watch out for the big stuff during the season and pray it will not come near us, always easy to watch b/c they are in the news for a long time before they hit somewhere, but what we should closely watch and take care of are the smaller systems when a tropical wave near land get's associated with a minor disturbance, that's the direct and quick approaching danger for humans.
at the moment none of such dangers is present.
Mike
 
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Lane53

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Current Conditions In The Atlantic Basin from Rob Lightbrown

The Atlantic Basin, as a whole, is pretty quiet this morning. A tropical wave currently near 50 West Longitude is forecast to start affecting Barbados for much of today with thunderstorms and gusty winds. These thunderstorms and gusty winds will spread westward across the Windward Islands this afternoon. This increase in moisture may then continue for much of the rest of this week across Barbados and the Windward Islands.

One thing to note in the model guidance about this particular tropical wave (the one located near 50 West Longitude) is that the NAM model forecasts development into a tropical cyclone by the time it reaches the central Caribbean Friday evening. Also, the GFS model forecasts that this tropical wave strengthens some over the next few days, but it never develops into a tropical cyclone. Finally, the NOGAPS model forecasts that this tropical wave may try and develop in the western Caribbean early next week. It needs to be noted that the NAM model is poor at forecasting tropical development and the NOGAPS model has been developing "ghost storms" for a few weeks now. So, I am skeptical about tropical development over the next few days.

On the other hand, however, environmental conditions are forecast to be favorable over the next few days in the Caribbean, especially west of 75 West Longitude. So, the model guidance may be onto something and it is something I am going to keep a close eye on, especially this weekend into next week.

Even if this particular tropical wave does not develop (which is a good possibility that it doesn't develop), there are even stronger tropical waves that are coming off of the coast of Africa which will need monitoring as they cross the Atlantic. The entire tropical wave train will slowly shift northward over the next few weeks and it is not out of the realm of possibilities that a tropical storm may develop in the central and eastern Atlantic later this month into early July. The Madden-Julian Oscillation is currently in a downward motion phase and will be for at least a couple of more weeks. By the end of this month into early July, the Madden Julian Oscillation will return to a upward motion phase and that's when things may start really heating up storm wise in the Atlantic Basin.
 
MikeFisher

MikeFisher

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Feb 28, 2006
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we will get the heat by september til mid october with La Ni?a on full effects.
correct when you say we will see waves approaching the Atlantic waters off the west africa coast around the Cape Verdes associated with weak disturbances which due that always hide chances to develop, it's the season, it is exactly that from june til at least end november, more likely mid december.
MJO should be in favor of the disturbances by mid july, the circle lasts usually 30-60 days. the big factor for development ofany disturbances will be like always the present windshear at the moment and location of a disturbance's appearance.
last season windshear been unfav for the stormies all season long, that's why the numerous disturbances could not bring us any kick and the forming systems struggled in case of development. for this year we should expect windshears to be more in fav of the systems, last year's unfavorable conditions been exceptionally rare. to watch the highway, the developing area between Cape verde and the caribbean Sea, you also need to copy on the observer's map the present areas of saharan Dust, that is killing/hindering systems in good numbers every year.
for the moment the high pressure areas in the north look good,
the tropical wave east of the Antilles is running like expected westwards straight into the Caribbean Sea, i do not see any favorable conditions anywhere there to let that wave develop in anything, it is just a tropical wave with weak thunderstorms and low winds, we have here stronger winds during end november-mid february without a storm name. no effects for the Island in sight so far.
cheers
Mike
 
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