'encuestas' and 'sondeos'

I think it's a crap shoot given Hipo was apparently behind in the polls the last time. A lot of people outside of SD and not PLD are tired of being left out and want change for better or worse. They don't call the PLD comesolos for nothing. Still, apart from the corruption which is endemic to both parties, Hipo's own worst enemy is his own mouth.

bochinche said:

the 'sondeos' (...) you can often see examples of these on local telly channels when somebody walks down a street and asks passers by who they would vote for. 'sondeos' are taken everywhere and anywhere. it seems that the pld are winning all the 'encuestas' (...) but i haven't seen or heard of prd losing a single 'sondeo'.

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yeah, passers by support PDR and do sondeos. that's because those who will vote PLD actually have jobs and do not wander streets aimlessly.

Hmmm pretty much every one I've seen lately said Danilo was leading by anywhere from 6 to 10 points. Which ones are still predicting Hippo will win?

It's a crap shoot! The outcome will depend on who puts out the most cash on election day to get their voters out. The PLD has a big advantage, because they have been using government money and other resources to their advantage, to convince traditional PRD voters (barrio folks) to switch their votes on election day. Hipo and the PRD have been telling those same people to take everything that they give you, and still vote for them.

Historically, the most accurate polls at predicting the presidential elections have been Gallup, and Penn, Schoen, & Berland. Both have predicted that Danilo will win.

Hipocrito Mejia said:

It's a crap shoot! The PLD has a big advantage, because they have been using government money and other resources to their advantage, to convince traditional PRD voters (barrio folks) to switch their votes on election day. Hipo and the PRD have been telling those same people to take everything that they give you, and still vote for them.

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you do not understand how buying votes works. person who "sells" own vote "rents" the cedula, he/she never actually gets to vote. and the cedula? it may be used by someone else who will vote as ordered or it may be simply held up until the next day (no vote at all for this cedula).

dv8, I understand the buying of cedulas and how that works. However, that takes place mostly on the last few days leading up to the election, and on the day of the election, itself. That accounts for a small percentage, as logistically, they can only buy so many. I was referring to all the other handouts...the frozen chickens, the salamis, the ironing boards, the bonogas, bonoluz, solidaridad, SENASA, and other cards that the PLD has been handing out in the barrios; on the government's bill; and telling those people that if they don't vote purple, they can kiss those cards and other future gifts goodbye.

In addition to that, you have the paving of streets, the promise that they (PLD) will build housing units to be distributed to those people, and other miscellaneous shananigans. Believe me, I've seen it all, and from the guy that they all learned it from, back in the 12 years of terror.

bochinche said:

......if they are so far ahead as most 'encuestas' say,
why.....
have so many 'encuestas'?
have so many tv commercials?
show a new commercial every day?
have the mysterious 'paid space' in the papers every single day?
spend so many millions every week in political propaganda?
'inaugurate' so many more public works in the last three weeks than in the whole of the last 7 years?
give out free 'electrodomesticos' and food wherever they go?
they have managed to get the jce to say they don't want the 'participacion ciudadana' to observe the elections?
they give out 25 thousand of the 'solaridad' cards each month?
......etc......etc.

so the next question is....
do you believe the 'encuestas'?

......anyway....did you see the 'sondeo' from z101 printed in DL that has HM in the lead?......as per my original post.

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Yes I do believe in Encuestas because it's a proven tool that when used properly (i.e. not bought out by one party) tends to be relatively accurate (+- margin of error). Now I'm not naive and know that most if not all in fact ARE bought by this or that party, but the point is that unless PLD is buying ALL of them then they all seem to point to a Danilo win. I don't believe z101 as:
- They're not a polling company
- Alvarito and others are PRD sympathizers
- Their audience is of course mostly PRD sympathizers as well

I tend to believe more companies like Gallup which are internationally known and BTW they have always been on the money on their predictions.

The sign that The PRD feel like they're about to lose is that they're already putting out the message that their sympathizers are being intimidated, etc...In other words they're already claiming fraud, even before the election. This is also a sign that they won't accept the results and you can expect some upheaval.

It's simple math. The PRD cannot win unless they win Santo Domingo and I don't think they can pull that off. The more educated people are the least likely they are to vote for Hippo. Add to that the fact that most of the money invested by PLD has been spent in Santo Domingo (i.e. Metro and other infrastructure projects) and the fact that since The PLD is in power The PRD would have to win by a good margin for The JCE to give them the win (You know when two boxers are going at it the current champion normally has a slight psychological advantage and if things are really, really close he will usually get the decision on his favor). So unfortunately for you Bochinche I just don't see it. Their only chance IMO is if nobody wins in the first round then they may have a chance to court voters from the other parties to get the votes they need.

Let's re-read this after Sunday and see who was accurate. I strongly believe I am.

Here's my prediction.

PRD wins:
Santiago
Azua*
Cotui
San Jose De Ocoa
Higuey (With Amable's support)
Nagua
San Pedro de Macoris*
Santiago Rodriguez
Mao
Monte Cristi
Independencia
Monte Plata
Dajabon
Pedernales
Barahona*


PLD Wins:
Santo Domingo (all of them)
San Cristobal
Bani*
Puerto Plata
La Romana
San Francisco de Macoris
Bonao
El Seybo
Salcedo
La Vega
Samana
San Juan de la Maguana
Elias Pina
Bahoruco

* These ones could go either way IMO.

suarezn said:

I don't believe z101

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i love z101 but their polls tend to be a little... bent, to put it gently. i have heard them polling on a subject they had a strong opinion about and then bashing the callers who dared to vote otherwise. comemierda was one of the gentler words they used...

Bochinche, Haven't you heard that La Z01 is pro Hipolito? and that some of the people that works there are not allow to talk about the PLD. I know the owner of the show for sometimes and have met with Bienbenido Rodriguez to go out to drink and eat over perscaderia mora and vizcaya and I can asure you that he is PRD 100%.

bochinche said:

yes.........unless results are fraudulent

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...Which of course they WILL be unless YOUR candidate wins.

So why then Gallup and the rest of the pollisters were good back in Sept. and Octuber when Hipolito was ahead and now that are not creditable pollister can you explain that? I remember when Hipolito was ahead by 15 point and then the gap was narrowing in and now is Danilo ahead.

bochinche said:

yes, of course..... the point is that it is another "sondeo" in HM's favour.
show me a published "sondeo" in favour of PLD.........any (but not the ones you lot would make up yourselves - let's say by some commercial entity of some sort).

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Just a few from a quick search.

Danilo 51%; Hiplito 46%, segn sondeo - Almomento.net :: Periodico Digital Dominicano

Infolatam ? R. Dominicana: nuevos sondeos dan ventaja al candidato oficialista Danilo Medina

Encuestas: SIGMA DOS da a Danilo 53.7% y un 43.6 a Hip?lito; Centro Econ?mico del Cibao 50.4% a HM y 47.0 DM | Noticias SIN

Diario Antillano: Encuesta Benenson: Danilo Medina 52%, Hip?lito Mej?a 41%

Hahaha...of course it's the only one that gave Hippo the lead, thus it is greeeaaat!!! You're such an objective observer...Not.