TW 2001 and some 2002 Predictions and Results

Golo100

Bronze
Jan 5, 2002
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Check the Archives and dates and verify the following predictions from TW that came true:

1) The Argentinian Government of Carlos De La Rua wpould be overthrown or at least forced to resign due to his economic plans.
Result: De La Rua gone and no government stiil in charge.

2) Shakira will break up her relationship with De La Rua's son due to the embarrassment caused by the economy in Argentina. I suggested she was a gold seeker of publicity and the real reason for her relationship. She claims her record company had the last say. I say she was just waiting for the right time to dump the dude.
Result: Published yesterday on Mexican newspapers, the relationship is over because of pressure from record company.

3) Hipolito Mejia will seek reelection in 2004 and will win over Leonel Fernandez by narrow margin. His continued denials are only a firm confirmation that he will do it.
Result: Although 2004 is months away, I stick to prediction. His closest advisors and members of the cabinet continue to lobby and spend hundreds of millions in the effort and will not stop. Moreover he is coming closer and closer everyday to admitting the truth. He is only waiting for a straw poll or some indication from voters that he is the people's choice and that he can not refuse a draft.

4)The assassination of Dario Gomez was not a robbery. He was killed due to a corruption deal gone sour.
Result:In spite of a pony and dog show presented by police showing the suspected killers, the latest evidence shows that a major conspiracy is in effect and that the suspects are a bunch of actors. Even the Senate President admitted it was not a robbery and now even members of the immediate family are suspected. I still stick to his corrupted life as the motive.

5)Dominican Economy will end the year in great shape and will grow 5% in 2002.
Result: Macroeconomic figures show the strongest economy of Latin America, with the exception of Ecuador, which is showing higher numbers because it had gone into such big deficits in the last five years that it could only go up. 2002 will be even better in spite of the chaotic Hipolito administration. Even Hipolito cannot stop this economy from growing. Most economist place the growth at 3%. I go with Andy Dauhajre's figures. Banco Central will be wrong.

6)Former Chief of Staff General Rojas Tabar will become a top elective official in the Salcedo Province, and one of the most influential officials in the nation.
Result: Rojas Tabar has just been finger-pointed by both Balaguer and Hipolito as their two-party candidate for Senator in the new Distrito Nacional Province(not Salcedo) and the only candidate in the nation that has 100%+ chance of being elected. I furthermore predict that Rojas Tabar is in the top 5 to become President in one of the following two terms.

7)Hotel occupation will go up in the winter months in spite of September 11 WTC disaster. North Americans will choose DR as a destination when travel fears subside to avoid U.S. locations. Dominicans will re-discover their own nation.
Result:Hotels are now reporting increases and advance reservations on the move. Easter reservations are almost at capacity, if you don't reserve today you will have to stay home. Dominicans will swarm hotels rooms not occupied by foreigners. Dominicans, Puerto Ricans and South Americans will be a new force to be reckoned with.

8)A pet prediction of mine: The new Juan Bosch Bridge is the ugliest twin projetc in the world and will have serious problems with maintenance, road quality, accidents and cost overruns. As time goes by and international critics look at it, they will agree with me that this is the greatest architectural aberration of this century. Likewise, the new and expanded Autopista de Las Americas and its extension to La Romana and eventually to Bavaro will be the most dangerous highway in DR and will have monumental repair problems due to deffective engineering.

I will check my archives for many more, but these are the most publicized in recent days.

Any good predictions out there?

TW
 

Hillbilly

Moderator
Jan 1, 2002
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Just a comment on two of those things

1) Dar?o G?mez. when it happened, and the papers were full of eulogies about all the good worke he was doing and how he had, as a lawyer specializing in land and real estate, had accumulated vast tracts of land and had helped so many people, I commented to my beloved that I thought that there was something ugly there. I got the "You always think bad of people.." treatment

My thinking was simple, as befits a hillbilly: Serious lawyers (I don't like to say "honest lawyers" since that is an oximoron) should not be able to accumulate such vast wealth in such a short time; they should not be able to carry out such philantropic labors, do their jobs in Congress and still be lawyers...It does not "mesh" as we mechanics like to say...

As for (2) the Economy, I would just like to point out that a 3% growth rate will not make this a happy country....far from it.

It is a postulate of Development Theory and Population Growth, that the GNP has to be three to four times the Population Growth Rate, in order for the population as a whole to be "satisfied" of in some cases "optimistic".

the reality in the DR is that while the population growth rate has indeed slowed as we are more and more urbanized, the GNP has not been in the 3 or 4 times range since Balaguer's years of 86-90....there was a spurt during Leonel's spending on his Mega-Proyectos, but it only reached, what was it? Like 7%....?

So I will state the HB Corollary to your 3% GNP: Popular unrest continues to grow.

HB, now off the stump...