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Thread: 2018 Hurricane Season

  1. #61
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    Yes, my Jeep, bought two month ago...

  2. #62
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    Has the flood water dissipated yet in Santo Domingo? When I return on Sunday I hope my neighborhood isnt in a mess

  3. #63
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    Water is gone at least where I live in Los Restauradores.

  4. #64
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    nearly finishing July and barely anything to type about the Tropical Atlantic this Season so far,
    which is of course a good thing.
    so just a sum-it-up about what and why and what to expect further thru the 2018 Season.

    What we have til now on the Tropical Atlantic:
    * cooler than usual Sea Surface Temps
    * thicker than average (even for the peak months June/July) Sahran Air Layer(African Dust in the Air)
    * nice high Windshear
    * stronger than for the time of the year usual Trade Winds, stirring up the Ocean's Surface

    Why:
    * the High over the North Atlantic, named Azores-Bermuda High, is this time well stronger than usual,
    so the winds circulating around it are well stronger than usual, circulating in clockwise rotation around the High,
    which means they blow East to West over the Tropical Atlantic(our Highway) stronger than normal.
    so those winds(named the Trade Winds, bringing Tropical Waves E-W) blow well stronger as it would be
    expected this time of the year, so the stirr up the Ocean(bring cooler waters from the depths),
    which keeps the Temps of the Highway's Surface below the usual margins.
    * it is a lucky coincedence that the Saharan Dust, which has it's peak times always during June/July,
    is this Season also present in higher thickness/amount than average.

    What does that mean for conditions for our 2018 Hurricane Season?:

    so far to date,
    we had near no activity over the Tropical Atlantic, our Highway did not allow any waves/disturbed weather areas to really develop stormy powers.
    the only occurance so far been hurricane Beryl, who never had any chance to bring windy dangers to the Caribbean.
    what ever managed to start tropical storm activities, been teared apart inmediately by those conditions,
    there was no fuel available to keep anything stormy running.

    for the future of this Season,
    the actual strong Azores-Bermuda High with it's strong circulating winds is expected to stay up for at least the rest of July, maybe a good week longer. once it goes down, leading to calm down the Trade Winds, it will still take 2-3 weeks before the conditions over the Highway would start to reach a point where Tropical Stormy Action could kick in.
    So we can count on a start of our Hurricane Peak Season(on average starting mid august),
    to be postponed well backwards, at least til end August/maybe end of first week of September.

    such shifting of the peak time does not mean we would not get any storms developed this Season,
    but the later the "good/favorable" conditions start, the less time will be left
    before during Fall the temps cool down again and conditions gets slowly less favorable to develop storms.
    the whole conditions could shift to later in the year, but such phenomenon is actually not seen/expected to happen.

    so for now i would say that we safed ourselfs 2-3 weeks of "Junkies on the computer searching for Clouds which could become something", to enjoy a hot and fairly dry Summer first, before we have to take a new look on
    "What could still come late Summer/early Fall".

    sweaty greetings from constant 36C of a European super hot summer
    Mike
    www.MikeFisherPuntaCana.com
    [email protected]
    Punta Cana/Cap Cana/Dominican Republic
    Mike Fisher Facebook Group on

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  6. #65
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    been sweaty a looong time -- huh Mike?
    like weeks & weeks

  7. #66
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    Quote Originally Posted by MikeFisher View Post
    nearly finishing July and barely anything to type about the Tropical Atlantic this Season so far,
    which is of course a good thing.
    so just a sum-it-up about what and why and what to expect further thru the 2018 Season.

    What we have til now on the Tropical Atlantic:
    * cooler than usual Sea Surface Temps
    * thicker than average (even for the peak months June/July) Sahran Air Layer(African Dust in the Air)
    * nice high Windshear
    * stronger than for the time of the year usual Trade Winds, stirring up the Ocean's Surface

    Why:
    * the High over the North Atlantic, named Azores-Bermuda High, is this time well stronger than usual,
    so the winds circulating around it are well stronger than usual, circulating in clockwise rotation around the High,
    which means they blow East to West over the Tropical Atlantic(our Highway) stronger than normal.
    so those winds(named the Trade Winds, bringing Tropical Waves E-W) blow well stronger as it would be
    expected this time of the year, so the stirr up the Ocean(bring cooler waters from the depths),
    which keeps the Temps of the Highway's Surface below the usual margins.
    * it is a lucky coincedence that the Saharan Dust, which has it's peak times always during June/July,
    is this Season also present in higher thickness/amount than average.

    What does that mean for conditions for our 2018 Hurricane Season?:

    so far to date,
    we had near no activity over the Tropical Atlantic, our Highway did not allow any waves/disturbed weather areas to really develop stormy powers.
    the only occurance so far been hurricane Beryl, who never had any chance to bring windy dangers to the Caribbean.
    what ever managed to start tropical storm activities, been teared apart inmediately by those conditions,
    there was no fuel available to keep anything stormy running.

    for the future of this Season,
    the actual strong Azores-Bermuda High with it's strong circulating winds is expected to stay up for at least the rest of July, maybe a good week longer. once it goes down, leading to calm down the Trade Winds, it will still take 2-3 weeks before the conditions over the Highway would start to reach a point where Tropical Stormy Action could kick in.
    So we can count on a start of our Hurricane Peak Season(on average starting mid august),
    to be postponed well backwards, at least til end August/maybe end of first week of September.

    such shifting of the peak time does not mean we would not get any storms developed this Season,
    but the later the "good/favorable" conditions start, the less time will be left
    before during Fall the temps cool down again and conditions gets slowly less favorable to develop storms.
    the whole conditions could shift to later in the year, but such phenomenon is actually not seen/expected to happen.

    so for now i would say that we safed ourselfs 2-3 weeks of "Junkies on the computer searching for Clouds which could become something", to enjoy a hot and fairly dry Summer first, before we have to take a new look on
    "What could still come late Summer/early Fall".

    sweaty greetings from constant 36C of a European super hot summer
    I recall the conditions are currently similar to thr drought of 2016 when we had a horrendously wet late fall...

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  9. #67
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    Quote Originally Posted by william webster View Post
    been sweaty a looong time -- huh Mike?
    like weeks & weeks
    yeah, weeks and weeks.
    a good 5 weeks are already over, 2 more to go.
    Tuesday august 7th we will land on the Isle to get some cooling down fresh caribbean breeze.
    german summer sun is way too much for us Islanders, lol.
    Mike
    www.MikeFisherPuntaCana.com
    [email protected]
    Punta Cana/Cap Cana/Dominican Republic
    Mike Fisher Facebook Group on

  10. #68
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    UK is just as bad.... 37.5 or more.....weeks on end

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  12. #69
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  14. #70
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    Little by Little they start to agree with the Fisherman.
    2018 we will have loads of Sargassum Focking around our beaches til late september.
    we will not see any Mayor Hurricane moving in from our East from the Tropical Highway towards the Caribbean.
    I doubt that we will see more than two, if any Storm from the Highway side entering the Caribbean Sea on Hurricane strength.
    wáter temp over the highway are on all sides well below the usual heath and the warmth does not reach significantly Deep at all.
    even in the Caribeban Sea the temps are for this time of the year below their margins, so what ever makes its way "in", will not get the usually top conditions to grow up quickly within short time frames while steering towards Paradise Island from the SE.
    the Saharan Air Layer Content, that dry Saharan Sand in the Air, is perfectly thick and moves around in higher amounts than even the Seaweed, as an other nice bothering factor to azzkick any stormy activity from the beginning stages on. some people complain about it and talk about allergies and many bad stuff out of it, focking whiners, I love me some african sand filled air to breath, it keeps me safe while sipping Margaritas on a boat or beach.
    where conditions allow to asume to get some action in is the Gulf of Mexico and specially, the 2018 HotZone, the Eastshores of the USA.
    the action already been there this 2018 season and i am sure that the resume about 2018 will finally show that very most action happened there, along the US Eastshores and in the Gulf Region.
    I say for this year it is a perfectly fine and safe time to have fun sipping Margaritas on our Paradise Island.
    the drought period and following floodings(without tropical storm actions involved late fall and Winter) will be the main concern for the DR.
    of course there is always a chance that a small Tropical Storm could come up and decide to make it a straight visit, blowing some anyways useless Street signs around etc etc....
    but the to be awaited scenarios for the rest of 2018's Season never been so nice smooth calm in OUR favor in all my almost 25 years watching this stuff with great interest.

    let it blow, but it will most likely not happen over here.
    Mike
    www.MikeFisherPuntaCana.com
    [email protected]
    Punta Cana/Cap Cana/Dominican Republic
    Mike Fisher Facebook Group on

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