Automation and AI replacing jobs

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texan

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Apr 1, 2014
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http://fortune.com/2019/01/10/automation-replace-jobs/

There is talk about Automation and Artificial Intelligence replacing a lot of jobs in the future. I was curious what people thought on how this will effect the Dominican Republic. Will there be enough new jobs to replace the ones that will be lost.

There is friction between Taxi Drivers and the Uber Drivers but what happens when there isn't a driver. Elon Musk seems to think a fully autonomous car is not that far in the future. He makes bold claims but thinks he can have Tesla fully autonomous but they end of 2020. Elon Musk takes big risk but even if Tesla went out of business other companies would pick up where he left off.

I understand it could take a while for a fully autonomous car and for it to be legal to operate. But it does seem like it is coming at some point. Call Centers might be replaced by Artificial Intelligence. Seem like you could automate most of the checking in and checking out of an All Inclusive resort.

Would the government try and protect jobs from Automation and Artificial Intelligence ?
 

HDR

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http://fortune.com/2019/01/10/automation-replace-jobs/

There is talk about Automation and Artificial Intelligence replacing a lot of jobs in the future. I was curious what people thought on how this will effect the Dominican Republic. Will there be enough new jobs to replace the ones that will be lost.

There is friction between Taxi Drivers and the Uber Drivers but what happens when there isn't a driver. Elon Musk seems to think a fully autonomous car is not that far in the future. He makes bold claims but thinks he can have Tesla fully autonomous but they end of 2020. Elon Musk takes big risk but even if Tesla went out of business other companies would pick up where he left off.

I understand it could take a while for a fully autonomous car and for it to be legal to operate. But it does seem like it is coming at some point. Call Centers might be replaced by Artificial Intelligence. Seem like you could automate most of the checking in and checking out of an All Inclusive resort.

Would the government try and protect jobs from Automation and Artificial Intelligence ?

An autonomous car here would very soon go into syntax error mode...
 

SantiagoDR

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Dominican drivers do not drive by logic, autonomous cars rely on logic.

The (lack of) logic that I can verify of Dominican drivers is that they will pull in and out of the right lane to go around a parked car, even though there is another park car after the one they just changed lanes to go around.
 

LTSteve

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http://fortune.com/2019/01/10/automation-replace-jobs/

There is talk about Automation and Artificial Intelligence replacing a lot of jobs in the future. I was curious what people thought on how this will effect the Dominican Republic. Will there be enough new jobs to replace the ones that will be lost.

There is friction between Taxi Drivers and the Uber Drivers but what happens when there isn't a driver. Elon Musk seems to think a fully autonomous car is not that far in the future. He makes bold claims but thinks he can have Tesla fully autonomous but they end of 2020. Elon Musk takes big risk but even if Tesla went out of business other companies would pick up where he left off.

I understand it could take a while for a fully autonomous car and for it to be legal to operate. But it does seem like it is coming at some point. Call Centers might be replaced by Artificial Intelligence. Seem like you could automate most of the checking in and checking out of an All Inclusive resort.

Would the government try and protect jobs from Automation and Artificial Intelligence ?

I think you are "freaking out " about something that probably won't effect the DR in your lifetime. I don't see that technology coming to the DR anytime soon. There are a lot of things you could automate however the cost of implementing expensive technology vs the low wages paid is a big factor. I doubt there will be a huge leap in a developing country like the DR.
 

windeguy

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I have no way to predict the timing of autonomous driving vehicles in the DR replacing taxi and truck drivers. It is not just Elon Musk who is working on them. Virtually all car and truck makers are working on such systems with the backing of US government agencies who feel there will be fewer overall accidents using antonymous vehicles. It will be as soon as it is profitable to do so.

AI is getting a lot of press just this past week. Mainstream Media is really starting to pick up on the topic in general.
 
Jul 28, 2014
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A shining example of where this is coming into play is the usage of "Chatbots". Many companies with a web presence have a "Chat assistant" on their website where you can jam in questions, a lot of time this is not a person, but rather a bot, a program designed to interact with general input/questions that pertain to services/products the company offers. The idea is to reduce contacts to the company and support head count.

There are quite a few making them, here are some listed as the "Top 10" for 2019

https://www.consumersadvocate.org/c...GQnyBXHb2_5jubgkZnUsSVf2zuT0qNJ0aAmfdEALw_wcB


The one saving grace of these are, they seem to generally work well with a narrow base of products/services, when the subject matter gets very large & diverse, the propensity of the program to mis-interpret the question, grows a fair bit. I know this part to be true, as I work with IBM's Watson in my work environment, to reduce workload/calls into a call centre.
 

texan

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I think you are "freaking out " about something that probably won't effect the DR in your lifetime. I don't see that technology coming to the DR anytime soon. There are a lot of things you could automate however the cost of implementing expensive technology vs the low wages paid is a big factor. I doubt there will be a huge leap in a developing country like the DR.

I “hope” to be around another 50 years so that is a long time for the technology to improve. I would think 10 to 20 years from now there will be some major changes.

I do agree that it would take longer for it to hit the 3rd world and lower salaries would be less incentive. I wouldn’t say that I am freaking out because hopefully I will have enough assets and a pension with a COLA to live off by then. I do think at some point there will be jobs gone and not sure if they will be replaced for people who are still working.

It could be where fully automous cars were not in the entire country but in the Capitol. Fully Autonomous cars especially ride sharing ones should improve the traffic in the Capitol which will probably be much worse in the future.

Before Level 5 is reached Level 3 and or 4 would be nice. It wouldn’t take anyone jobs but probably make it a lot less stressful to drive.

It would make a great YouTube channel if someone had the latest technology in a Tesla and drove it around the Dominican Republic with multiple Go Pros.
 
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KyleMackey

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The automation vs. human labor debate has been around forever. As old as assembly line manufacturing, machine tooling, then software and on and on. I don't see automated vehicles taking over anytime soon, anywhere.
 

zoomzx11

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I am more afraid of autonomous cars than Dominican drivers.
Ditto with its a long long way off.
I am more concerned with the immediate, like has my automatic electric coffee maker got my am coffee ready.
That is AI I trust.
Cars can be four wheel weapons. Mindless cars scare me.
Not opposed to change but I like driving my gas powered car, crunching through the gears and the rumble of the exhaust.
Maybe its a control/trust issue?
 

windeguy

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I am more afraid of autonomous cars than Dominican drivers.
Ditto with its a long long way off.
I am more concerned with the immediate, like has my automatic electric coffee maker got my am coffee ready.
That is AI I trust.
Cars can be four wheel weapons. Mindless cars scare me.
Not opposed to change but I like driving my gas powered car, crunching through the gears and the rumble of the exhaust.
Maybe its a control/trust issue?

Of course there are people that are going to be all levels of skeptical about antonymous driving vehicles. As long as the government feels they are safe enough, and the US Government feels they are indeed safer than human drivers, they will increase in numbers over time. A short time, as I see it. The next generation of "drivers" probably won't be able to drive at all.
 

windeguy

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texan

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The automation vs. human labor debate has been around forever. As old as assembly line manufacturing, machine tooling, then software and on and on. I don't see automated vehicles taking over anytime soon, anywhere.

That seems to be one argument that we have had this fear before and we created new jobs as we lost old jobs. Others say this time around will be different because we will get rid of blue collar jobs and white collar jobs. That AI will grow exponentially and wipe out a lot of jobs. Blue Collar jobs such as a plumber should be safe because that would be much harder for a robot to replace.

I could see a larger city with a lot of money having Automated Vehicles first. It would improve a place like NYC or London a lot to have all electric automated vehicles. Or maybe certain trucking routes that go across long stretches of the interstate in the US or somewhere else similar. Maybe China will push for automated vehicles first.

If Tesla is successful selling cars direct and other companies do the same that could cause a lot of job losses. Car Dealerships seem to employ a lot of people. Car Dealerships are trying to fight that battle just as taxi companies try and fight Uber and hotel industry try to fight airbnb.

I don't know what will happen but it seems like there is a ton of money being spent and some of the smartest people working on these technologies.
 

texan

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Of course there are people that are going to be all levels of skeptical about antonymous driving vehicles. As long as the government feels they are safe enough, and the US Government feels they are indeed safer than human drivers, they will increase in numbers over time. A short time, as I see it. The next generation of "drivers" probably won't be able to drive at all.

I have a child under 2 years old so I do wonder what it will be like 14 year for now. When i was turning 16 I couldn't wait to get a Driver's License. I already hear about a lot of kids now who are not in a hurry to get their Driver's License.
 

KyleMackey

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The discussion is becoming a reality from virtually every car maker as they introduce self driving cars within the next few years.


https://emerj.com/ai-adoption-timelines/self-driving-car-timeline-themselves-top-11-automakers/

Not surprised they are all investing in the technology. Don't see any large scale full driverless automation in/on highways, avenues let alone smaller streets. If one was building a new city from scratch (like Brasilia circa 1960) the roads infrastructure could easily be designed for driverless cars. The process will also have to be decided by lawmakers in various countries, individual states, or locales relative to driving laws and then there will be the liability insurance matters.
 

Tom0910

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My hometown in the northeastern U.S. has had clean drinkable municipal water supplied 24/7 for over 100 years,a good portion of the DR doesn't even have municipal water and the areas that do it sure isn't 24/7 nor drinkable so I doubt we'll see self driving cars here in any numbers any time soon.
 

texan

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Not surprised they are all investing in the technology. Don't see any large scale full driverless automation in/on highways, avenues let alone smaller streets. If one was building a new city from scratch (like Brasilia circa 1960) the roads infrastructure could easily be designed for driverless cars. The process will also have to be decided by lawmakers in various countries, individual states, or locales relative to driving laws and then there will be the liability insurance matters.

I was thinking the opposite at some point. Maybe they would let you drive your own car in the future but you would not be able to afford insurance. If self driving cars are safer then human drivers wouldn't it be the human drivers who would have a hard time getting insured.

I know Uber carries a high insurance policy and pays out on a lot of lawsuits when one of their driver's is involved in a crash. They might pay out less lawsuits with self driving cars plus all the money they will save by not having drivers. There will probably be enough competition they will have to go self driving.

Apparently Tesla is going to learn a lot more if it can sell a lot of the Model 3's. It will collect a ton of data from all of the Tesla vehicles on the road. It doesn't have to be fully autonomous to improve the technology. My understanding it will collect data and learn anytime the cars are driving.
 

texan

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My hometown in the northeastern U.S. has had clean drinkable municipal water supplied 24/7 for over 100 years,a good portion of the DR doesn't even have municipal water and the areas that do it sure isn't 24/7 nor drinkable so I doubt we'll see self driving cars here in any numbers any time soon.

Maybe there is a lot more money to be made from self driving vehicles then providing clean drinking water. The governments will have to approve it but the government won't be involved in creating or improving the technology. Once it is worth it finically would it be that hard to get the Government to agree.
 

windeguy

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I was thinking the opposite at some point. Maybe they would let you drive your own car in the future but you would not be able to afford insurance. If self driving cars are safer then human drivers wouldn't it be the human drivers who would have a hard time getting insured.

I know Uber carries a high insurance policy and pays out on a lot of lawsuits when one of their driver's is involved in a crash. They might pay out less lawsuits with self driving cars plus all the money they will save by not having drivers. There will probably be enough competition they will have to go self driving.

Apparently Tesla is going to learn a lot more if it can sell a lot of the Model 3's. It will collect a ton of data from all of the Tesla vehicles on the road. It doesn't have to be fully autonomous to improve the technology. My understanding it will collect data and learn anytime the cars are driving.

I agree that in the future cars with human drivers will have to pay a lot more for insurance.

If Tesla can sell a lot?

The Tesla Model 3 has quickly conquered the luxury car segment. In its full first year on the market, the new EV sold an estimated 138,000 units in the US, beating out the Lexus RX, which sold 111,641 units, and sailing past the BMW 3 and 4 series, which sold 75,957 vehicles.

https://insideevs.com/tesla-model-3-sales-2019-estimation-guidance/

Selling has not been the problem. Production has been the issue, but is now ramping up.
 

KyleMackey

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Apr 20, 2015
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I was thinking the opposite at some point. Maybe they would let you drive your own car in the future but you would not be able to afford insurance. If self driving cars are safer then human drivers wouldn't it be the human drivers who would have a hard time getting insured.

I know Uber carries a high insurance policy and pays out on a lot of lawsuits when one of their driver's is involved in a crash. They might pay out less lawsuits with self driving cars plus all the money they will save by not having drivers. There will probably be enough competition they will have to go self driving.

Apparently Tesla is going to learn a lot more if it can sell a lot of the Model 3's. It will collect a ton of data from all of the Tesla vehicles on the road. It doesn't have to be fully autonomous to improve the technology. My understanding it will collect data and learn anytime the cars are driving.

There really is no data on fully automated cars being safer than human drivers. Automated cars would have to be deployed in significant numbers, for a significant time, in the same driving conditions as human drivers in order to have reliable data.
 
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